ずくなしの冷や水

2018年01月17日

10,000 Bodies Discovered in Several Mass Graves in Syria's Raqqa

FARSNEWS2018/1/16
10,000 Bodies Discovered in Several Mass Graves in Syria's Raqqa
TEHRAN (FNA)- A Syrian official said on Tuesday that several mass graves with 10,000 bodies, including one with 4,000, have been found in Raqqa city in Northeastern Syria.

The Arabic-language al-Watan daily quoted General Director of the Syrian Forensic Medicine Zaher Hajo as reporting that based on intelligence 10,000 bodies have been buried in mass graves in Raqqa.

He further told al-Watan that 4,000 bodies were buried in one single grave, adding that the discovered graves are located in the regions that are under the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya said on Thursday that the humanitarian situation in Syria’s Raqqa was close to a disaster, though everyone was putting the best face on matters.

"The humanitarian situation in Raqqa is awful, but everyone is playing it cool. Our American colleagues leveled the city to the ground as they were fighting ISIL there, and currently the whole city is rigged with explosives, full of corpses of killed people, lacking water, electricity and any medical facilities. Nothing is going on, the city is not being restored, people cannot come back, living in awful unbelievable conditions in refugee camps," the diplomat stressed.

According to Nebenzya, the current state of affairs in Raqqa was "a humanitarian situation close to a humanitarian disaster."

He added that Western countries place emphasis on what was going on in the Syrian province of Idlib where the Syrian army was carrying out an operation against terrorists, and in Eastern Guta, a suburb of Damascus.

"They discuss what they are interested in," he noted.

A stronghold of the ISIL terrorist group, Raqqa was liberated in mid-October by Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 02:49| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

クルドの支配地域を守るため米国が大規模な秘密空軍基地を設定

FARSNEWS2018/1/16
Media: US Setting Up Large Secret Airbase in Syria to Protect Kurdish-Held Areas
TEHRAN (FNA)- Washington has established a secret airbase in Syria to protect the Kurdish forces who have occupied large areas of the Arab country, media reports said on Tuesday.

The Arabic-language Lebanese Addiyar newspaper revealed that the US airbase in Syria can host 100 fighter jets and is in good distance from al-Tanf military base in Southeastern Syria.

The daily disclosed that the airbase has been secretly built to protect one fourth of the Syrian territories occupied by the Kurds.

It added that the airbase is 3.5 times larger than Lebanon (nearly 35,000km).

According to Addiyar, Washington has supplied the Kurds with 300 tanks, over 600 armored personnel carriers, anti-armored missiles and full personal equipment, weapons and ammunition and built a large base in Northern Syria to protect them against missile attacks.

The US-led coalition announced on Sunday it is helping to create a new Border Security Force to fight terrorists in Syria. The unit, stationed along the Syrian border with Iraq and Turkey, as well as along the Euphrates River Valley, is expected to be comprised of up to 30,000 people. SDF veterans will make half of the unit, while the other half are yet to be recruited.

Damascus, Moscow and Ankara have strongly blasted the US new decision to form a Border Security Force.

The United States' military support for the militia first began under the administration of US President Donald Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, which provided Kurds with weapons and training.

Washington also continues providing Kurdish fighters with more military hardware in Syria despite US President's promise to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to halt arms shipment to the Kurdish fighters.

Ankara had said late November 2017 that Trump told Erdogan that he had issued instructions that weapons should not be provided to Kurdish fighters in Syria.

According to reports, the US plans to keep its troops in Syria long after the defeat of ISIL. Washington has been justifying its deployment of ground troops in Syria, which violates the embattled nation’s sovereignty, by citing the need to fight ISIL.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 02:36| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

トルコが支援する戦闘員が北部シリアのクルドを攻撃

FARSNEWS2018/1/16
Turkey-Backed Militants Launch Heavy Attacks on Kurds in Northern Syria
TEHRAN (FNA)- The Ankara-backed militants targeted heavily the Kurdish fighters' positions in the town of Afrin in Aleppo province, a Kurdish media outlet reported on Tuesday, adding that Turkish reconnaissance planes have been patrolling over Afrin during the day.

The Kurdish-language Hawar news reported that the Turkey-affiliated militant groups' artillery units deployed on Mount Sheikh Barakat in Western Aleppo have targeted Afrin.

The militants' mortar units affiliated to the Turkish army pounded Kurdish forces' positions in Bani, Badr Khan and Baker hills in Jandariseh region and in the villages of Bafloun, Qastal Jandu, Qatma and Ma'araska, Hawar news added.

It further said that four spy planes of the Turkish army have also been carrying out reconnaissance operations over Kurdish fighters' positions in Afrin and its countryside.

Turkey's Anadolu news agency reported on Sunday that the Turkish forces deployed in Hatay province have increased attacks against the Kurds in Afrin.

The forces and militants affiliated to the Turkish army targeted the Kurds' positions in regions near Afrin with 40 artillery attacks.

Also, the Turkish forces stationed in Azaz region in Western Aleppo pounded the villages in Shara region in Afrin.

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 02:30| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

イランが暴動の首謀者を逮捕

FARSNEWS2018/1/16
Iran Arrests Leaders of Recent Riots in Isfahan
TEHRAN (FNA)- Four females who endeavored to provoke the recent economic protests into riots and received orders from the anti-revolutionary forces outside the country were arrested by security forces in the Central city of Isfahan.

The security and law enforcement police officials said that the four women had played a role in provoking the protestors during the recent riots in Isfahan and were detained.

They added that preliminary investigations disclosed that they had links with an online movement named 'My Stealthy Freedom' that was commenced in 2014 by Masih Alinejad, an Iran-born anti-revolutionary journalist and activist based in Britain and the US, as well as a the West-based Telegram channel, Sedaei Mardom (formerly known as Amad News), which released fake reports on continued protests in Tehran.

Tehran's Public and Revolution Courts Prosecutor Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi announced last week that hundreds of detainees arrested by the security forces during the recent riots have been released.

"After investigations, in addition to the 140 detainees who had been arrested during the riots and were freed in the past week, another 300 detainees were also freed, some on bail this week (since Saturday)," Dolatabadi said, referring to the fate of those who had been detained in Tehran.

Meantime, Iran's Judiciary Spokesman Gholam Hossein Mohseni Eje'i said only 55 suspects are still under detention in Tehran now.

He also told reporters in his weekly press conference in Tehran on Sunday that the number of individuals who are under detention in other cities and towns across the country stood at 455 until Saturday, adding that a number of them have been freed on Saturday and Sunday.

Late in December, a number of peaceful protests began in several areas across the country, with the participants calling on authorities to address their economic issues.

However, the economic protests in a number of Iranian towns turned into riots each comprised of a few hundred protesters after the peaceful gatherings were overshadowed when armed elements and vandals showed up among ordinary protesters and began to launch attacks on public property, police stations and religious sites.

The original protesters soon left the streets upon calls by the authorities so security forces could deal with the rioters and sporadic violence, which continued in some towns and cities for several days.

Millions of people took to the streets in nationwide rallies to reiterate support for the Islamic establishment and condemn the unrests, following scattered riots in some parts of the country.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 02:15| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

アフガニスタンは自前では6か月しか軍隊を維持できない

RT2018/1/16
Kabul can't support army without US money more than 6 months – Afghan president
Without American assistance, Kabul can't fight the many militant groups active in the country after 16 years of US involvement. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani says the national army won't last longer than six months on its own.

American taxpayers, who contribute around 90 percent of Afghanistan’s defense budget, are bankrolling a war against terrorists in the county, which the government would not be able to continue without the US funding, Ghani told CBS News on Sunday.

“We will not be able to support our army for six months without US support and US capabilities… Because we don’t have the money,” Ghani said.

Saying that at least “21 international terrorist groups” are operating in his country, Ghani warned that “terrorists can strike at any time.”

“Dozens of suicide bombers are being sent. There are factories producing suicide bombers. We are under siege,” Ghani told the ‘60 Minutes’ program.

In August, US President Donald Trump announced a new Afghanistan strategy and pledged continued American support for the Afghan military. Trump also said that the US contingent in Afghanistan would be expanded. There are about 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan at present, including the 3,000 sent in September, following Trump’s announcement.

This continues the 16-year incursion that has seen over 2,000 US servicemen lose their lives and over $700 billion spent on military assistance, lined with repeated promises of a soon-to-come victory from three successive US presidential administrations.

Last week US military officials told the Wall Street Journal that the Pentagon hopes to increase the American military presence in Afghanistan in time for spring, by deploying an estimated 1,000 new combat advisers to Afghanistan. The Pentagon is also reportedly sending additional unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), as well as helicopters and ground vehicles. With the new arsenal, the US hopes it can finally defeat the Taliban and other insurgent groups in Afghanistan.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 02:04| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

シリアの穏健な反政府勢力がCIAの金銭、武器供与、指導者派遣の再開を求める

RT2018/1/16
Syrian rebels urge US to ‘turn words into action’ & resume military aid
The Free Syrian Army is seeking the resumption of a suspended CIA military aid program, urging Donald Trump to “turn words into action” and confront what it claims is Iran’s expanding “hegemony” in the region, Reuters reports.

The Free Syrian Army (FSA), an alliance of anti-government insurgent groupings, is trying to persuade the US to revive the defunct CIA program which provided cash, weapons and instructors to “moderate” rebels, a high-ranking rebel official told the news agency.

Mustafa Sejari, a senior FSA official, said President Trump’s decision to suspend the CIA program is only benefiting Iran’s efforts to tighten its grip on the region.

Syrian rebels “endorse President Trump’s statements about the need to confront Iranian hegemony in the region,” but now “it is time to turn words into action,” Sejari said. He claimed that Iranian-backed militias “are expanding without serious resistance.”

The FSA, whose fighters have allegedly been complicit in war crimes and shown an inclination to Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) ideology in the past, “asked for the resumption of aid” and “explained the dangers of leaving moderate FSA forces without support.”

Last July, the Trump administration reportedly ended the clandestine CIA program launched back in 2013 during Barack Obama’s presidency. The program, codenamed Timber Sycamore, had served as the backbone of Washington’s strategy to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad, but proved a comprehensive failure.

Besides the CIA program, other US train-and-equip strategies to bolster rebel groups in Syria have also been notoriously underwhelming. In 2015, General Lloyd Austin, CENTCOM commander at the time, told Congress that only four or five US-trained fighters had gone to Syria out of the 5,000 the Pentagon had been counting on.

Earlier that year, then Defense Secretary Ash Carter told the Senate Armed Services Committee that less than 1 percent of the 7,000-strong volunteer group had made it through the US military’s vetting process.

“As of July 3, [2015] we are currently training about 60 fighters,” Carter said. “I can look out at your faces and you have the same reaction I do, which is that that's an awfully small number.”

Moscow has consistently warned against arming the so-called moderate rebel factions in Syria, pointing out that weapons supplied to them often fall into the hands of jihadist groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra (Al-Nusra Front) and IS.

Rights groups allege that some rebel factions might have committed war crimes against civilians. In May 2016, Amnesty International said armed groups surrounding the Sheikh Maqsoud district near Aleppo “have repeatedly carried out indiscriminate attacks that have struck civilian homes, streets, markets and mosques, killing and injuring civilians and displaying a shameful disregard for human life.”
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 01:57| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

日本は北朝鮮のミサイル発射を待っている?

RT2018/1/16
Japan public broadcaster falsely reports N. Korean missile launch
Japanese media outlet NHK has apologized for issuing a false report of a North Korean missile launch Tuesday evening local time.
An apology was issued on the Japanese language version of NHK’s website and later shared on its social media platforms.


"Around 6:55pm earlier we reported on the NHK's news site and NHK's news disaster prevention application ‘Pattern of North Korean missile launch’ but this was incorrectly issued. J alert has not appeared. I must sincerely apologize,” the news outlet wrote.

The incident comes just four days after a public warning was issued to residents in Hawaii to “seek immediate shelter” from an alleged incoming ballistic missile which had been launched.

That alert was issued in error by the Hawaii Civil Defense, which apologized profusely and sparked debate online about US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding his country’s nuclear capabilities and the threat posed by the North Korean regime.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 01:02| Comment(3) | 国際・政治

エルドアンが米国支援の国境警備部隊についてNATOに態度をはっきりさせよと迫る

RT2018/1/16
Erdogan demands NATO take stand on US-backed Syrian Border Force in Syria
Ankara expects NATO to take an official stance on the creation of a ‘terrorist army’ along the Turkish border in Syria, President Erdogan said. He was referring to the planned 30,000-strong US-backed mostly Kurdish force.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the US-led defense block, of which Turkey has been a part for decades, must clarify its stance on the planned Afrin-based border force as envisioned by Washington. The force would be created from the Kurd-dominated YPG, which Ankara considers a terrorist organization and an extension of the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militant group.

“I would like to call upon NATO,” Erdogan told on Tuesday members of the ruling party in the Turkish parliament. “You have to take actions against the ones who threaten the border security of your Allies.”

General Hulusi Akar, who is in the Belgian capital to meet NATO top brass, earlier said Ankara will not allow the YPG to receive support from other members of the organization.

“We cannot and will not allow support and arming of the YPG terrorist group under the name of an operational partner. We hope this mistake will be corrected in the shortest time,” the general said as cited by the state-run Anadolu agency.

While Ankara was the most vocal critic of the border force plan, other nations involved in the Syrian conflict expressed their negative attitude to it as well. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the plan indicated that the US was planning to partition Syria.

“In fact, that means separation of a huge territory along the border with Turkey and Iraq,” Lavrov said on Monday. “The actions we currently see indicate that the United States does not want to keep the territorial integrity of Syria.”

Criticism of the plan also came from Iran, with the Foreign Ministry warning that it may incite more violence.

“The US announcement of a new border force in Syria is an obvious interference in the internal affairs of this country,” ministerial spokesman Bahram Qasemi was cited as saying on Tuesday by state news agency IRNA. The official said the US must withdraw its troops from Syria.

The Pentagon currently has an estimated 2,000 troops on the ground in Syria. The American soldiers were involved in the YPG operation to capture the city of Raqqa from the jihadist group Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) last year. Despite the defeat of the Islamists, the US said it had no intention to withdraw the troops, which were deployed without an invitation from Damascus or mandate from the UN Security Council.

The US claims the military presence in Syria is needed to ensure a political transition in the country, but Moscow says it almost amounts to an illegal occupation of part of a sovereign nation. There are suspicions in the Russian government that the US anti-IS campaign was simply used to establish a military foothold in Syria with regime change as an end-game for Washington.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 00:04| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

2018年01月16日

神奈川県7都市の2017年出生死亡比率 1年目にして推計値を大幅に下回る

神奈川県7都市の出生死亡比率実績。2017/12分については、鎌倉が未公表のため前年同期の数値で代用しています。

鎌倉市は、人口動態に関する市の速報発表が他の都市より約1か月遅れることが常態となりつつあります。



1年前、2017/1に次の推計を行っています。

神奈川県7都市計出生死亡比率年間最大、平均、最小の推移。2016年まで。


さて、2017年の最低は2月の0.783、最大は9月の1.02、平均は0.911でした。

中期推計も行っています。2017年の推計値は最低が0.78、平均が1.02、最高が1.10でしたから最低は予測通り、平均と最大が近似直線からの下方乖離が大きくなっています。

線形近似直線による将来推計


6年間の実績を使ってより長期の期間について推計したものが次のグラフです。

推計期間を2031年までの20年間に延長
最大値の傾き-0.0339を-0.03に修正(18年後くらいに最大値が平均を下回るため)



1年目にして大きな下方乖離が出てしまいました。長期の推計は使いものになりません。

冒頭のグラフでも2014年から年間ラインの下落幅が大きくなっています。はっきり言えば下落が加速しています。神奈川県下で出生死亡比率が月によっては0.5を記録することがあるのか、記録することがあるとすればそれが何年後なのかが今後の焦点になります。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 20:43| Comment(0) | 福島原発事故

US Thinking About “Low-Yield” Nuclear Warfare - This Should Outrage the World

FRARSNEWS2018/1/15
US Thinking About “Low-Yield” Nuclear Warfare - This Should Outrage the World
TEHRAN (FNA)- The Pentagon regime intends to create a new 30,000 man occupying force in northern Syria, along the border between Syria and Turkey. The force is expected to predominantly be American, Kurdish, but also include some Arab fighters - read terror proxies.

According to Spokesman Col. Ryan Dillon, the inaugural class of border fighters have already been trained. There is no timeline on getting to 30,000, though in the past the US has struggled mightily to achieve large numbers in such training efforts. Unsurprisingly, since this whole scheme boils down to training and arming a heavily Kurdish force, guarding what is ultimately Kurdish YPG territory, Turkey is furious, saying the entire enterprise is unacceptable. But post-ISIL Syria is also furious, because it doesn’t need to have such a force along its border with Turkey.

Turkish officials have already summoned a US charge d’affaires in Ankara to protest the effort, and are being increasingly public about their opposition to the idea. Recent history suggests Turkey’s opposition to US actions in Syria will have no impact on them, however. Having repeatedly threatened such an offensive in the past, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced that a Turkish invasion of the Afrin District of northern Syria, held by Kurdish YPG forces, will be launched in the coming days.

In other words, there needs to be a global front against the latest US move at the United Nations instead, where member states can talk directly to the US and force it to change course.

Turkey, a UN member state, considers the YPG to be terrorists on par with ISIL, which has meant US support for the Kurdish group has caused a lot of tensions between the two sides. With US support for a new Kurdish border force, Turkey may believe chasing them out of Afrin needs to be done sooner, rather than later. And in a world that is dominated by the rule of jungle, the US takes any action that it likes to give Turkey the needed excuse to embark on military action in the territories of another sovereign state without its endorsement or, at least, its content.

It gets worse when we hear that new details continue to emerge on the Pentagon draft proposal on changes to American nuclear policy. This policy would see a focus on acquiring new types of nuclear weapons for the region, with an eye toward more usable ones for limited nuclear wars in the Middle East and beyond.

This is something some in the US military brass have been pushing for years, with an eye toward the acquisition of “low-yield” nuclear weapons that the War Party could readily use in situations where they would currently be unthinkable – Syria, Syria-Turkey border, Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, North Korea, and suchlike.

This is now said to include not just the acquisition of these new nuclear arms for more limited and frequent nuclear wars, but also revisions of nuclear policy that would dramatically relax restrictions on such strikes. With the US spending preposterously large amounts of money on nuclear arms, some bureaucrats are galled at the fact that they get essentially no use out of them. In making smaller, more easily used nuclear arms, however, the US may ultimately end up normalizing nuclear warfare in the Middle East, something that would have huge implications for Iran, Russia, and Syria.

The US could find many pretexts to normalize its “low-yield” nuclear warfare. For instance, it can fault Iran for not preventing alleged weapons transfers to Syria, Yemen and Iraq, hence taking the world’s focus off the harm done to civilians overall in any given nuclear attack. This could also rapidly disintegrate into a collection of warring statelets throughout the region, making it difficult for the UN to ever end such conflicts, let alone reunite after a US nuclear attack. This heavily faults the latest US decision to build a strong occupying force along the Syrian-Turkish border which we now know what they will be for: illegal airstrikes and even limited but frequent nuclear strikes.

Those expecting the US to leave Syria, however, should take a minute to consider this: the US still hasn’t left Germany and Japan. In fact, there are quite a few places the US hasn’t left, and while certainly most of them don’t pose a threat to American soldiers, they reveal a pattern about the US staying, rather than leaving Syria.

Surely one could say that the US has a military presence in Syria now. They even have bases and troops on the ground but we should include the warplanes in the sky as well. The US military arguably has more presence in Syria than it does in Germany or Japan. To take this idea further, it would also be rational to say the US has a military presence wherever it uses unmanned aerial vehicles to strike targets throughout the region.

All the countries that have some sort of American military presence - from military attachés to the troops involved in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan - essentially results in highlighting pretty much this dangerous situation. Considering a sizable US military presence, existence of illegal bases in Syria, and the fact that the Pentagon regime is thinking about conducting “low-yield” and frequent nuclear strikes in Yemen, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan and even North Korea, we are all advised to fasten our seatbelts, it’s going to be a nuclear ride by a country ruled by a Racist President known as agent orange!
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 18:19| Comment(0) | 国際・政治