アルメニアとアゼルバイジャンの戦争は、トルコの支援を受けたアゼルバイジャンがナゴルノカラバフに攻め込み、優勢を保ちました。2020/11/8には、ナゴルノカラバフの首都ステパナケルトに近いシュシにアゼルバイジャンの軍が侵攻し住民が逃げ出していました。
ツイッターでアルメニアの議会が休戦に抗議する者によって占拠され、議長がリンチを受けたとの情報。パシニャンはソチに逃げたとの話がありますから休戦交渉はソチで行われていた?
休戦協定は現状固定ですからアルメニア側は痛みがある。トルコが平和維持軍に参加するとトルコが述べていますが、ロシアの報道には言及なし。アゼルバイジャンに恩を売っただけではなく、具体的なメリットを求めたでしょうが実現しなかった? シリアから連れて行ったISISテロリストも休戦になればアゼル側には厄介者。トルコはまたシリアに連れて帰るのか。トルコの目論見はまたしてもロシアにくじかれた。
Conflict News@Conflicts氏の2020/12/3のツイート
NAGORNO-KARABAKH: Azerbaijani MoD announces that its death total from the conflict with Armenia stands at 2,783 with more than 100 still missing. Another 1,245 are wounded and hospitalised. - @RALee85
PlCART@PlCART氏の2020/11/26のツイート
Finally found geolocation of this mysterious curved road and this is not Omar pass and belong to 2nd route from Azmod video.
https://t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD/1161 https://goo.gl/maps/LSfKX8YgnmSjvRqHA @khalfaguliyev @azyakancokkacan @firtisgulu @Danspiun @Mukhtarr_MD @RALee85 @ryanmofarrell @ghost_watcher1



Magomedov Mukhtar@Mukhtarr_MD氏の2020/11/26のツイート
AZ serviceman armed with RPK-74M light machine gun equipped with a Thermal Imagery Sight on a road to Vardenis, Kelbajar district (30 km from ARM border).
Geolocation:
https://goo.gl/maps/QQ8S4dfuKtVzLNXm7@aldin_ww @AbraxasSpa @GeromanAT @azyakancokkacan @COIN_V2 @khalfaguliyev @Danspiun


※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2020/11/14のツイート
ナゴルノ・カラバフでの平和維持活動の開始以来、ロシアの軍用輸送機は56回飛行。817人の軍人と119ユニットの武器と軍事装備、ロシア航空宇宙軍のMi-8およびMi-24軍用ヘリ8機を輸送した。
※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2020/11/12のツイート
ナゴルノカラバフ/アルツァフ大統領ハルチュニャン
「10月3日、敵がマタギスに接近した時、アルツァフ軍とアルメニア軍の特殊部隊がヤニクナーの防衛に行かなければならなかった。しかし彼らは拒否した。私が先頭を行くからと頼み込んでも無理だった。彼らは大統領を置いて去った」
※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2020/11/12のツイート
ハルチュニャンは10月3日と18日に兵員不足を警告。
「数日前、ロシア軍アナリストに、紛争に勝つためには8万から10万の動員が必要で、それがなければ負けると言われた。私は何人が参戦し、何人が18歳の兵士を残して去ったか言いたくない。18~20歳の兵士がアゼルバイジャンと戦う主要部隊だった
そして、2020/11/9の22:30 GMTにプーチンが休戦合意を発表。23:30 GMTロシアの平和維持軍が現地に向かいました。11/8にはすでにロシアの輸送機がエレバンに飛んでいました。今回もロシア国防省は積極的に情報公開です。
国境に近いゴリスの町です。




こんな地形です。今回の調印文書にアルメニアとナゴルノカラバフ、アゼルバイジャンとその飛び地との道路建設が記されていますが、確かに道路網は良くない。

ロシア軍のチェックポイント

次の地図の中心部分にある道路の分岐点です。

白い点のあるところがShushi、ここまでアゼル側が攻め込みました。上に画像があるGorisまではまるでスカイウェイ。直線で50kmあります。

RT2020/11/10
WATCH Russian peacekeepers board planes for deployment to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone
Russian soldiers and vehicles are wasting no time in deploying to Nagorno-Karabakh, the region disputed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, for a peacekeeping mission following an armistice that ended hostilities there.
Newest footage released by the Russian Defense Ministry shows vehicles and soldiers boarding Il-76 transport aircraft at the Ulyanovsk-Vostochny military base, before taking off for the Caucasus.
“...beginning at [3:00am GMT] on November 10, 2020, the Russian Federation has begun to deploy a peacekeeping contingent in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces," the Russian Defense Ministry said in a brief statement.
Under the terms of the armistice, some 1,960 troops, 90 armored vehicles and 380 other vehicles will be deployed along the line of contact and the “corridor” between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia proper.
The troops belong to the 15th Detached Motorized Rifle Brigade, designated as peacekeepers, from the Central Military District. A command post for the mission is already being set up in Stepanakert, the region’s capital.
The armistice, which went into effect at midnight Moscow time on Tuesday, is supposed to end the six weeks of fighting over the disputed region, in which Azeri forces have made significant advances into territory held by ethnic Armenians since 1994.
Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnic Armenian enclave that seceded from Azerbaijan in 1991, during the collapse of the Soviet Union. The conflict had been largely frozen for decades until it flared up again in late September.
Moscow has sought to negotiate a solution to the conflict, which threatened to spill over beyond the region as NATO member Turkey supported Azerbaijan against Armenia, which is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance with Russia.
RT2020/11/9
Putin: Russian peacekeepers headed for Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijan & Armenia sign armistice
Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed that Baku and Yerevan have struck a deal to end the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, and that Russian peacekeepers will be deployed along the line of contact.
The agreement will create conditions for a long-term settlement of the crisis in the interests of both peoples, Putin said shortly after midnight Moscow time on Tuesday (22:30 GMT Monday), confirming reports of the armistice Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan described as “painful” but necessary.
According to the text of the agreement that appeared in Russian media around midnight Moscow time – when the armistice was to take effect – Russia will deploy almost 2,000 peacekeepers along the line of contact and the “Lachin corridor,” the road connection between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia proper.
These peacekeepers will move in as the Armenian armed forces withdraw, and will stay for five years, according to the draft. An automatic five-year extension of their mandate is envisioned, unless any of the parties objects six months before its expiration.
Neither Armenian nor Azerbaijani forces are supposed to advance beyond their current positions. This leaves the remaining territory of the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region somewhat surrounded, with only a 5-kilometer-wide corridor to Armenia proper, under protection of the Russian peacekeepers.
A new road is supposed to be built through the Lachin area over the next three years, to connect Armenia with Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. In parallel, another road will be built through Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with its enclave of Nakhichevan in the southwest. Until then, Russian border troops will supervise the existing road traffic through Armenia to Nakhichevan.
The agreement also provides for the exchange of prisoners and bodies of the dead, and the return of “all refugees and internally displaced persons” in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas, to be supervised by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
In theory, this would mean the return of both ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis displaced by the conflict since 1991, though it is unclear how that will function in practice.Nagorno-Karabakh was an ethnic Armenian enclave within the borders of the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan, but seceded from Baku in 1991 as the Soviet Union began to collapse. A 1994 armistice froze the conflict with ethnic Armenian forces in control of most of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as surrounding territory of Azerbaijan proper.
Renewed clashes over the region began in late September, and continued despite multiple ceasefires arranged by Moscow, and even one mediated by the US. The situation was aggravated by the fact that Azerbaijan received active support from NATO member Turkey, while Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance with Russia.
WATCH Russian peacekeepers begin deploying to Nagorno-Karabakh under Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal
Minutes after the signing of the peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia has begun deploying peacekeepers to the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. Airplanes and convoys of vehicles are already on the way.
Several Il-67 transport aircraft have taken off from Ulyanovsk, carrying the first batch of peacekeeping troops, the Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed around 2:30 am Moscow time on Tuesday (2330 GMT Monday).
A video released by the Defense Ministry shows a convoy made up of trucks, armored personnel carriers and other support vehicles making its way to the region as well.
TASS2020/11/11
Press review: Moscow gains from brokered peace deal and Trump to unleash Iran sanctions
Top stories in the Russian press on Wednesday, November 11
Armenian PM says there was probability of losing Stepanakert without Karabakh deal
Turkey jointly with Russia to monitor ceasefire in Karabakh, Erdogan says
UN Secretary General grateful to Russia for reaching truce agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh
Putin discusses with Erdogan Karabakh deal with Azerbaijan, Armenia
Russian Foreign Ministry not aware of creation of new working group on Nagorno-Karabakh
Pashinyan says conflict could have been avoided only if Armenia gave up land near Karabakh
Turkey continues to monitor situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, Foreign Ministry says
Putin lauds courage of Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders on Karabakh regulation
Rally organized in Yerevan demanding PM resignation, Karabakh agreement exit
Russian peacekeepers on their way to Nagorno-Karabakh after peace deal
Karabakh ceasefire deal stipulates deploying only Russian peacekeepers − statement
Kremlin hopes Armenia will perceive Karabakh agreements appropriately
Armenian PM says signs Karabakh deal based on army’s recommendation
Leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia agree peace in Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenian PM says hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh not fully stopped
The second war in post-Soviet history between Azerbaijan and Armenia ended as quickly as it started, Kommersant notes. After six weeks of intense hostilities, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint statement on a complete ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh. In accordance with the agreement, Armenian troops must leave three occupied districts of Azerbaijan. The key provision of the agreement is the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the region. Acting as the guarantor of the peace deal, Moscow has reaffirmed its role as the key mediator of the Karabakh conflict, creating the conditions for the relaunch of the diplomatic process that has stalled for a quarter of a century, the newspaper points out.
Moscow has gotten back its leading role in the South Caucasus with this agreement, and this outcome is quite a triumph for Russia, Editor-in-Chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine Fyodor Lukyanov told RBC. "It was impossible to maintain the status-quo when it became apparent that Armenia could no longer win the armed conflict. Before that, Armenia’s victory had been presumed, but this time, the Azerbaijanis were better prepared, and when you don’t have enough military power, the whole structure built over the past few years falls apart," the expert explained.
While the new model benefits Moscow, Armenia becomes even more dependent on Russia’s presence, Lukyanov stated. The OSCE Minsk Group has basically ceased to exist after this agreement, the experts claimed. The OSCE has not been mentioned in the armistice, and the group’s co-chairs France and the US have not been listed as active participants involved in the preparations for the deal.
The return of a significant chunk of districts bordering Nagorno-Karabakh and a part of the unrecognized republic itself to Azerbaijan has been met with jubilation in Baku. The Armenian public had the opposite reaction: the agreement was seen as a capitulation and a national embarrassment, with PM Pashinyan painted as the one responsible for what happened by the radical opposition, Kommersant notes.
Meanwhile, support for Pashinyan, who was once popular in Armenia, has plummeted. Armenian political analyst Grant Mikaelian noted that the signing of the disadvantageous agreement is not the only mishap of the Pashinyan government. "During Pashinyan’s rule, society has been divided. And it is harder for a divided society to defend itself. Government bodies have been weakened, especially the legal system. There have been no preparations for a war for the past two and a half years, and there has been no development in the relations with its allies: Russia and Iran," the expert told Kommersant.