ウクライナ: ずくなしの冷や水


モスクワ、「非友好的な国」からのトラック輸送禁止を拡大へ - RBK

Moscow to extend ban on trucks from ‘unfriendly countries’ – RBK
Companies from the EU, Norway, Ukraine, and the UK are not allowed to transport goods through Russia by road
The Russian government will extend a ban on cargo transit by road for companies from countries that have placed similar restrictions on Moscow, RBK reported on Thursday, citing sources close to discussions on the matter.

The ban, which was initially introduced in October and was due to expire on December 31, will now be extended until June 30, 2023, according to the report.

Under the ban, companies from the EU, Norway, Ukraine, and the UK are not allowed to transport goods through Russia by road. Restrictions apply to both bilateral and transit goods transportation, as well as cargo transportation to or from the territory of a third state. Goods delivery to final recipients in Russia is still carried out, but only after the cargo is reloaded from foreign trucks to Russian and Belarusian vehicles at the border.

The ban was a response to similar restrictions imposed by these countries on Russian trucks as part of Western sanctions on Moscow earlier this year.

The Russian Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Industry and Trade have so far declined to comment on the report.

According to Yevgeny Antipov, deputy head of the Russia-based association of international road carriers ASMAP, the countries which imposed sanctions on Russian truckers “flagrantly violated international law, which could not remain unanswered.”

He noted that, thanks to Moscow’s reciprocal ban, Russian companies had obtained an opportunity to participate in the delivery of European cargo on the part of routes that run through Russia, which helps them offset financial losses due to Western sanctions.

“We gave our carriers work, the price [of goods] did not increase due to transshipment on the border, [the ban] only slightly affected delivery time,” Valery Alekseev, vice president of the Russian Automobile Transport Union, told RBK.

The ban exempts some products, including various types of food, manufactured goods and certain non-food items. Cargo delivery to or from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is also exempt from restrictions.









posted by ZUKUNASHI at 22:28| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


Russian arms manufacturers switch to six-day working week
Shifts at defense enterprises may also be extended to 12 hoursArms manufacturers in Sverdlovsk Region in Russia’s Urals are working longer weeks due to the conflict in Ukraine, a trade unions chief has said.

Enterprises that are busy fulfilling government defense orders “are now working six days [a week] instead of five,” Andrey Vetluzhskykh, the head of the federation of local trade unions, said during a press conference in Ekaterinburg on Friday.

Working days could also be increased for employees, Vetluzhskykh added, noting that the Russian law allows for the addition of four hours per shift in the event of “production necessity.” That means “working up to 12 hours daily,” he explained.

Businesses also have the option to recall workers who are on vacation, or deny scheduled paid leave, the unions chief said. However, this only applies to the defense industry and should in no way affect companies producing goods for civilian use, he added., a trade unions chief says

Employees must be fairly compensated for the additional work, and unions are keeping an eye on employers to ensure that they fulfill their obligations, Vetluzhskykh pointed out.

The measures are being implemented because state defense orders have “significantly expanded” as the conflict in Ukraine continues, he said.

Sverdlovsk Region is a major Russian defense industry hub, hosting more than 100 defense firms. They include the likes of Uralvagonzavod and Uraltransmash, which manufacture armored vehicles and howitzers, respectively; NPO Avtomatiki, one of the country’s leading producers of control systems and electronic equipment for the space industry; Kalinin Machine-Building Plant, which supplies air defense systems to the Russian military; and many others.







posted by ZUKUNASHI at 19:09| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


Damage to Ukrainian civilian infrastructure self-inflicted – Russia
‘Unprofessional actions’ by Kiev's air-defense units during missile strikes on Friday are to blame, Moscow claims
Mistakes made by Ukrainian forces in their attempt to repel Russian missiles on Friday has damaged civilian infrastructure, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed in a statement on Saturday. Earlier, Kiev had blamed Russian forces for hitting residential apartments in the strike, which killed four people, including a toddler.

“Unprofessional actions of the Ukrainian air defense units resulted in damage to civilian infrastructure on the ground,” the ministry said, without providing any further details.

Earlier, the governor of the Ukrainian Dnepropetrovsk Region, Valentin Reznichenko, said that four civilians had died in Krivoy Rog in Friday's strike, including a one-year-old boy. A total of 13 people were injured, including four children, he added. According to Reznichenko, it was a Russian missile that supposedly had hit a residential building, leading to four deaths.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the “high-precision weapon strike” was targeting the Ukrainian military command and administration system as well as the military industrial complex and relevant power-supply networks. The strike had in particular “disrupted foreign weapons and munition transportation” and had “blocked the advancement of the Ukrainian reserves,” the ministry said. Production at some military industrial facilities was stopped as well, it added.

“The strike’s goal was reached. All the designated targets were hit,” the Russian ministry claimed. Ukraine's General Staff claimed on Saturday that Russia had launched a total of 98 missiles the day before. It did not elaborate on how many were shot down.

On Friday, Ukraine’s state-owned energy giant Ukrenergo declared a state of emergency following reports of the Russian strikes hitting critical infrastructure. The operator called the situation a “system breakdown,” adding that it had registered a 50% fall in nationwide electricity consumption.

In recent weeks, Russia has ramped up its airstrikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, through missile and drone barrages across the country. This followed Kiev's launch of several sabotage operations against civilian infrastructure in Russia, including the Crimean Bridge truck-bomb attack.

The Russian Defense Ministry had previously said the Russian forces only target military sites in Ukraine. In October, the Russian military started targeting energy facilities that the Defense Ministry believes to be crucial for Ukraine’s military capability. As a result, the Ukrainian energy system has been significantly degraded.





「攻撃の目的は達成された。指定された標的はすべて攻撃された」とロシア外務省は主張した。 ウクライナ軍参謀本部は土曜日に、ロシアが前日に合計98発のミサイルを発射したと主張した。撃墜された数については詳述していない。




職業上の規則に反した、本職でない、しろうとの という意味ですが、ようするに「プロ専門家としての技量が低い」という意味です。


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:57| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

Russian troops get fresh batch of ‘Penicillin’

Russian troops get fresh batch of ‘Penicillin’ – RIA
Named after the antibiotic, the acoustic and infrared hardware can effectively detect Ukrainian artillery, a source told RIA Novosti Russian troops have received a fresh batch of ‘Penicillin’ advanced reconnaissance systems, RIA Novosti news agency reported on Saturday, citing a source. The hardware is expected to be deployed in Ukraine.

According to RIA, the Russian Defense Ministry “received another batch of the advanced 1B76 Penicillin acoustic and infrared reconnaissance systems,” adding that the device “effectively detects the positions of the Ukrainian artillery and transmits coordinates for their prompt destruction.”

Another source earlier told the agency that Penicillin artillery trackers had proved their worth in the Ukraine conflict, as they are able to target, among other things, NATO-grade artillery.

The reconnaissance system can also detect rocket and air defense systems, and register acoustic and infrared waves. This provides the operator with precise coordinates to pinpoint the adversary’s firing positions. The time needed to locate a single target does not exceed five seconds.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:43| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

西側はロシアとの対話を決してやめてはならない - ショルツ

West should never quit talks with Russia – Scholz
Putting an end to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine would be much harder without a dialogue with Moscow, the German chancellor warns
The Western nations should never walk out of talks with Moscow, regardless of how big the "differences" between the two sides are, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Germany’s SZ newspaper in an interview published on Friday. Dropping out of any talks with Moscow would only make the task of ending the ongoing conflict in Ukraine harder, the chancellor believes.

"What is important is that, despite major differences in [our] positions, we do not let the thread of talks with Russia be broken," Scholz said, adding that "if we do not talk, Russia would be even less likely to end the war."

The chancellor still blames Moscow for its ongoing conflict with Kiev and maintains it is Russia that should be proactive in halting military action. Yet, the chancellor also advocates a negotiated solution rather than a military one. "For this, it will be necessary to talk," he told SZ.

When asked about when there could be a "window for negotiations," Scholz said that "the time has actually long since come." The chancellor also expressed his hope that "once this war is over and we are dealing with a different Russia … capable of making peace, we may be able to live together again." He did not elaborate on what he meant by "a different Russia."

Scholz also and once again outlined Berlin’s position on arms deliveries to Ukraine, saying that Germany would send "modern weapons" to Kiev but would also seek to prevent a "direct confrontation between NATO and Russia" and would not take any steps in the field of military aid alone.

The German chancellor has repeatedly called for continued dialogue with Moscow, arguing that it was the only viable option for ending the fighting in Ukraine. Earlier in December, he defended his decision to "keep talking" to Russian President Vladimir Putin by saying he wants to live to see the moment when it would be possible "to get out of this situation."

Scholz and Putin talked by phone on December 2. According to the Kremlin, the two discussed "different aspects of the situation in Ukraine." Scholz then said he "condemned the Russian airstrikes" against what he called "civilian infrastructure in Ukraine." In the Saturday interview with SZ, he also referred to these airstrikes as a "clear violation of international law."

Russian forces have been targeting some of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure facilities since October. The Russian Defense Ministry believes these to be crucial for Kiev’s military capability.




交渉の窓」はいつできるのかという質問に対して、ショルツ氏は「実はもうとっくにその時が来ている」と答えた。首相はまた、「この戦争が終わり、平和を作ることができる別のロシアを相手にするようになれば、我々は再び一緒に暮らすことができるかもしれない」と希望を述べた。しかし、"異なるロシア "とは何を意味するのか、詳しくは語らなかった。


ドイツ首相は、モスクワとの対話の継続を繰り返し求め、それがウクライナの戦闘を終わらせるための唯一の有効な選択肢であると主張してきた。12月初めには、ロシアのプーチン大統領と「対話を続ける」という決断を、"この状況から抜け出す "ことが可能になる瞬間を見るまで生きていたい、と弁明していた。

ショルツ氏とプーチン氏は12月2日に電話で会談した。クレムリンによると、2人は "ウクライナ情勢のさまざまな側面 "について議論したという。そして、ショルツは "ウクライナの民間インフラ "と呼ばれるものに対するロシアの空爆を "非難する "と述べた。SZの土曜日のインタビューでも、彼はこれらの空爆を "明確な国際法違反 "と言っている。

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:36| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


US sought to stop Ukraine from killing Russia’s top general – NYT
Kiev’s forces reportedly launched a strike in April in an alleged attempt to kill Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov
Washington allegedly sought to dissuade Kiev from trying to kill the head of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, the New York Times (NYT) said on Saturday, in a lengthy report based on "secret battle plans, intercepts and interviews with Russian soldiers and Kremlin confidants," as well as some unnamed US officials.

According to the report, the US learned of the alleged plans by Gerasimov to visit the frontlines in late April amid the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. American officials then decided to keep the information from Ukraine out of fear that Kiev might use it to try and kill the general, potentially sparking a conflict between the US and Russia, the NYT added.

The Ukrainian military reportedly obtained the information about Gerasimov’s plans anyway, prompting US officials to contact the Ukrainians and ask them to call off an attack on the Russian general, the media outlet said. The request was put forward after consultations with the White House, the NYT said.

"We told them not to do it," a senior American official told the paper. "We were like, ‘Hey, that’s too much.’"

The Ukrainian military still launched an attack on what they believed was the general’s position. Gerasimov was not affected by the strike in any way, the NYT said, adding that the attack still allegedly made Russian top military commanders "scale back" their visits to the frontlines.

Russia has never officially confirmed Gerasimov's April visit to the frontlines. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the chief of the general staff visited the Russian troops in Ukraine in early July. The general visited several command posts, met senior commanding officers, and listened to reports on the course of the Russian military operation as well as combat support from the troops, the ministry said.

His visit came a week after Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also traveled to the frontlines to present top state awards to servicemen involved in the conflict. The Defense Ministry did not mention any Ukrainian attacks targeting either the minister or the head of the General Staff at that time.

Back in early May, the NYT published a report on an alleged Ukrainian strike targeting Gerasimov a week before. The attack had reportedly missed its target but allegedly claimed the lives of some 200 soldiers, including at least one general, the paper reported at the time, citing an anonymous Ukrainian official. Moscow never confirmed any of these claims.
米国、ウクライナのロシア軍最高司令官殺害を阻止しようとした - NYT.



「アメリカの高官が同紙に語ったところによれば、「我々はそれをしないよう彼らに言った。"おい、やりすぎだぞ "という感じだった」。





posted by ZUKUNASHI at 13:10| Comment(0) | ウクライナ



Moscow has data confirming US’, Poland’s involvement in terror attacks in Russia − agency
According to the specialists’ assessments, a number of facts "confirm the direct involvement of the US and Poland in the massive military-logistical support of the Kiev regime, in preparation and implementation of joint terror attacks on the Russian Federation territory"

MOSCOW, December 16. /TASS/. Data from intercepted drones confirm the involvement of the US and Poland in preparation of terror attacks on the Russian territory, a source in Russian security agencies told TASS Friday.

"Relevant agencies of the Russian Federation analyzed electronic components of the intercepted unmanned aerial vehicles, used by Ukraine for attacks on Russian infrastructure objects - in particular, in Sevastopol, in Crimea, in Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh Regions," the agency said.

According to the specialists’ assessments, a number of facts "confirm the direct involvement of the US and Poland in the massive military-logistical support of the Kiev regime, in preparation and implementation of joint terror attacks on the Russian Federation territory."

The agency noted that "the avionics and drone control stations were produced by US’ Spektreworks, a company that performed the initial tuning and check of the drones at the Scottsdale airport in Arizona."

In addition, the relevant agencies pointed out that "the final assembly and flight trials of these drones were carried out on the Polish territory, near the Rzeszow airport, used by the US and NATO as the main supply node for Ukrainian armed forces."

"The installation of payload, flight mission and the launch itself were carried out near Odessa and Krivoy Rog," the statement says.




さらに、関連機関は、"これらのドローンの最終組み立てと飛行試験は、米国とNATOがウクライナ軍への主要供給ノードとして使用しているルツェゾフ空港の近くのポーランド領で行われた "と指摘している。

"ペイロードの設置、飛行任務、打ち上げ自体はオデッサとクリヴォイ・ログの近くで行われた "と声明は述べている。

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:51| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


In War, Losers Lie The Most
William Schryver
Over the course of the Ukraine War – or the “Special Military Operation”, as Russia is careful to term it – I have confidently concluded that one of the essential sources for reasonably accurate information regarding the far-flung combat operations in the theater is … The Russian Federation Ministry of Defense daily briefing.

Of course, those inclined to support Ukrainian perspectives on this war immediately rise up in arms at such a suggestion. “How could you possibly believe anything the Russians have to say? They lie about everything!”

Well, I’m not typing out this brief missive in an attempt to disabuse the Russia-haters of the world of their fondest prejudices. That would be a fool’s errand, at best. But I will briefly explain the rationale I have employed to reach the conclusion that, in fact, the most accurate picture of ongoing Ukraine War combat operations available to the general public is, indeed, coming from the daily Russian MoD briefings.

First of all, I want to freely acknowledge that there is no way they can always be correct. The very nature of battle is fraught with inherent challenges to accuracy. Squad, company, and battalion commanders naturally inflate their successes and downplay their failures. Air defense crews and fighter pilots observe a clear hit on an aircraft, watch it fall to the full extent of their perspective, but sometimes fail to see that it somehow managed to recover before crashing into the ground, and then miraculously limped back to its base. These sorts of things are an unavoidable and not all that uncommon reality, and contribute substantially to the pervasive “fog of war” in any conflict.

Fully accurate data for a war takes years to emerge, and even then can be corrupted by inaccuracies that are never detected and corrected. So the best one can hope for in the midst of a war is a reasonably accurate “rough sketch” of what is really happening at any given time, as well as a constantly coalescing picture of what has really been happening over the course of time.

To achieve the latter, one must also examine the positional maps, taking into account which strategic locations are being won and lost, and what the general trajectory of operations suggests as reflected in the way the lines of contact move and evolve.

But the one thing, above all, that should be kept in mind is that, as a general rule, the side that is really winning is much more likely to tell the truth, and the side that is losing is, far more often than not, lying through its teeth.

Of course, this hardly means that the winning side always tells the truth. They may have very good reasons for lying, obfuscating, or simply having inaccurately ascertained what the truth really is.

On the other hand, the losing side, at the first realization they’re in over their heads, starts lying some of the time, and as their prospects deteriorate further, they quickly resort to lying nearly all the time.

Indeed, it becomes imperative to do so, both to shield troop morale from the full truth, and (as attested very notably in this particular war) also to reassure allies and benefactors that, despite a few “minor setbacks”, everything is actually going “according to plan”, and glorious victory is “just around the corner”, if only you keep helping us out with more weapons, guns, ammo, victuals, and coin to pay our ever-dwindling numbers of soldiers.

Also, it must be appreciated that, in any war, even a lopsided one, the dominating power is bound to make stupid mistakes on occasion, and incur an embarrassing setback that he will desire to deny, spin, or otherwise downplay. Similarly, if the weaker army pulls off a rare triumph, he will exaggerate its magnitude and relative significance, and will predictably forecast “much more of the same” going forward.

For these reasons, the determination of “things as they really are” in wartime can be a complex calculus – but nevertheless not outside the capability of the experienced observer/analyst to ascertain to a reasonably accurate degree.

And make no mistake, to any reasonably objective and knowledgeable observer/analyst not intellectually crippled by mindless bigotry or riven with ulterior motives, the Russians are winning this war, and winning it big. And therefore their natural inclination will be to tell the truth in order to lend weight to that perception in the public mind.

The mountains of propaganda that have dominated western media reports and the “expert analysis” of its stable of arms-manufacturer-funded think-tank monkeys and talking-head “retired generals-for-hire” have, unfortunately, irredeemably tainted the perceptions of those for whom these voices constitute their only sources of information.

I wish there were a way to scrape the scales of darkness from their eyes, but alas, I have concluded it is more or less futile at this juncture. For most, not even “settled history” many years down the road will dissuade them from resolutely clinging to their most cherished delusions.

In any case, as pertains to the regular daily briefings of the Russian Ministry of Defense, those who follow them closely, as I do, will observe that they are typically detailed, not apparently prone to exaggeration, and delivered in a totally matter-of-fact fashion – no superfluous commentary about “glorious victories” or “trampling the enemy under our feet”, etc. “Just the facts, ma’am.”

Furthermore, it must be understood that the Russians are also in a far superior position to know what has actually occurred on the battlefield. They have access not only to high-resolution satellite-based imagery, but more importantly to the countless hours of video shot every single day from their hundreds (thousands?) of loitering observation drones that are a constant fixture over almost every engagement of appreciable size.

That said, it is important to understand that, for obvious reasons, they’re absolutely not going to permit the general public and the OSINT practitioners of the world to have access to imagery as they see it. Instead, they consistently downgrade the resolution of shared video and still photos, and employ edits to remove any video footage they deem to be “privileged information” – such as what weapon is being used for an airstrike, or the angle from which it came.

As for the Ukrainians, it is apparent they no longer have a significant drone capability over the battlefield, and are therefore “flying blind” in a great many instances.

In conclusion, all perceptions of battle are distorted to some degree. Some things which are claimed to have happened may, on occasion, be substantiated with incontrovertible evidence of some kind: conclusive imagery, multiple credible witnesses, or the frank admission of the other side to an effectively undeniable loss or setback.

I would roughly estimate that the perception of truth of any given event, under the best of conditions – even for the respective combatants armed with far superior intelligence and imagery – probably never exceeds 90% accuracy. The general public, using open-source intelligence and reasonably reliable on-the-ground reporting, can optimistically hope for maybe 60% - 70% accuracy.

For these reasons, the acquisition of a knowledge of "things as they really are” in war is never an exact science. But it is an art that can consistently produce conclusions highly consonant with the objective facts of the matter.
















いずれにせよ、ロシア国防省の毎日の定例ブリーフィングについて、それをよく見ている人なら、私のように、典型的に詳細で、明らかに誇張する傾向がなく、「輝かしい勝利」あるいは「敵を足下に踏みつける」などという余計なコメントはなく、まったく平静な形で伝えられていることに気がつくだろう。"事実だけ "です、奥さん。






posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:44| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


#Russiaは#Ukraineのインフラストラクチャを破壊し、軍事戦術を変更しました。西側はこの戦争を長く続けることはできません。 EU は 2023 年にキエフに 190 億を貸す予定であるが、ゼレンスキーは月に 70 億が必要だと言った。

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:23| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

Ukraine wants West to stop pushing for ‘unacceptable’ peace terms



キッシンジャーが提案する「平和プロセス」は、キエフの中立はもはや選択肢ではないとして、「ウクライナを、たとえ表明されたものであれ、NATOに結びつける」ものであるとしている。また、ロシアには2月24日以前のラインまで撤退してもらい、ウクライナが主張する他の領土、ドネツク、ルガンスク、クリミアは "停戦後に交渉の対象となりうる "としている。 








Ukraine wants West to stop pushing for ‘unacceptable’ peace terms
Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba says Kiev can defeat the Russians with enough Western support

Ukraine can defeat Russia on the battlefield if the West supplies enough artillery and other heavy weapons instead of pushing Kiev towards a bad peace deal, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba wrote in an op-ed published by Foreign Affairs magazine on Friday.

“The West must therefore not suggest peace initiatives with unacceptable terms and instead help Ukraine win,” Kuleba wrote, calling for additional weapons for Kiev and more sanctions on Moscow.

The foreign minister criticized French President Emmanuel Macron for saying the West should not “humiliate” Russia, and former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger for suggesting that Ukraine should cede some territory for the sake of peace with Moscow.

“These declarations are premised on the idea that Ukrainians, no matter how well they fight, cannot defeat Moscow’s forces. But that notion is wrong,” Kuleba said. He insisted that “with sufficient support,” Ukraine can stop the advance of Russian troops and take back some of its land.

“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin is not suicidal; a Ukrainian victory will not lead to nuclear warfare,” Kuleba said. “Instead of focusing on Putin’s feelings, the United States and Europe should focus on practical steps to help Ukraine prevail.”

The op-ed comes at a time when Ukrainian officials are growing frustrated with the speed and quantity of Western arms deliveries.

“Either the world doesn’t quite understand what is happening, or it does understand, is tired, and is content with a few Ukrainians dying,” Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov told The Economist on Sunday.

Mikhail Podoliak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, suggested this week that countries such as France and Germany are “hiding from the war.”

“If you think we should lose, just tell us directly: ‘We want you to lose.’ Then we will understand why you give us weapons at this level,” Podoliak told the New York Times.
Several European leaders, including Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, met with Zelensky in Kiev this week, pledging more support. Sergey Nikiforov, Zelensky’s spokesman, denied that the Ukrainian leader was pressured into holding talks with Russia.

Kissinger outlines Ukraine peace proposal
Elder US statesman invoked the missed opportunity to negotiate an end to WWI in 1916
Urgently negotiating an end to hostilities in Ukraine would prevent another world war, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger argued in an essay published on Friday. The 99-year-old statesman noted that, in 1916, the US government had the chance to end the First World War through diplomacy, but missed it for reasons of domestic politics.

Kissinger laid out his reasoning in the December 17 issue of The Spectator, describing the current conflict as a “war in which two nuclear powers contest a conventionally armed country,” a clear reference to Ukraine being a proxy war between the US and Russia.

The “peace process” Kissinger proposes would “link Ukraine to NATO, however expressed,” as he believes neutrality for Kiev is no longer an option. He also wants Russia to withdraw to the lines before February 24, while the other territories Ukraine claims – Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea – “could be the subject of a negotiation after a ceasefire.” 

In addition to “confirming the freedom of Ukraine,” the arrangement would strive to “define a new international structure, especially for Central and Eastern Europe,” in which Russia should “eventually” find a place, he explained.

While some would prefer “a Russia rendered impotent by the war,” Kissinger disagrees, arguing that Moscow’s “historical role should not be degraded.” Dismantling Russia could turn its vast territory into a “contested vacuum,” where “competing societies might decide to settle their disputes by violence” and neighbors could seek to claim territory by force, all in the presence of “thousands of nuclear weapons.”

In substance, this is the same proposal Kissinger had first floated in May, for which he was labeled an enemy of Ukraine and added to the notorious ‘Peacemaker’ kill list. In an interview earlier this month, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky categorically rejected any sort of ceasefire that did not take Kiev’s claimed 1991 borders as the starting point.

It was also unclear whether Moscow would accept any Western-mediated ceasefire at all, after former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s admission that the 2014 Minsk armistice was intended to “give Ukraine time” to prepare for war.

What’s fresh in Kissinger’s Spectator essay is his reasoning. He points to August 1916, at the height of the First World War, when the warring powers sought US mediation to end the unprecedented bloodshed. Though “a peace based on the modified status quo ante was within reach,” President Woodrow Wilson delayed the talks until after he could get re-elected in November. By then it was too late, and the war would go on for two more years, “irretrievably damaging Europe’s established equilibrium.”

Asked about Kissinger’s proposal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “eager to give the article a thorough reading,” but “hasn’t had a chance to do so yet, unfortunately.”

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements, designed to give the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state. The Kremlin demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that would never join any Western military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked.

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 12:44| Comment(0) | ウクライナ



2022/12/15 スコットリッターの長文の記事です。冒頭部分の日本語訳

今年の12月2日、私はミシガン州アナーバーで、Ann Arbor Coalition Against War主催の3日間の「レジデンス」の2日目に参加した。初日の12月1日は、主催者が「パボロジー」と名付けた素晴らしいイベントが、オリジナル・コテージインの2階のバーで開催された。立ち見も出るほどの盛況で、多くの質問が寄せられた。

翌日の12月2日、私はJourney of Faith Churchで、とても立派な観衆に囲まれていました。私は早めに到着し、横に立って考えをまとめていました(人前で話すときは毎回ユニークな話をするのが目標なので、1時間のプレゼンをするために、時系列的に一貫した話のポイントを並べようとしていたのです)。



posted by ZUKUNASHI at 23:01| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


現在:ロシア軍はベラルーシに集結し、黒海へのウクライナの防衛を垂直に突破する準備をしている.これは非常に重要な進展です。ベラルーシとウクライナの国境から約 8 km の地点に、ベラルーシの精鋭部隊が配備され、新たな特徴を備えています。

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 01:07| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


ウクライナからポーランドへ そしてドイツに車両流入

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 13:58| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


"これらは、無意味に死んだ10万人のウクライナの若者の記録である。臓器に切断された遺体を親族に渡さないために、彼らの死は隠されている。実際はその3〜5倍はいる。" - セルゲイ・グラズィエフ

"ウクライナ軍に同行して負傷した戦闘員から臓器を切り取る黒人移植医が、この血まみれのピエロビジネスで自分たちを豊かにしている" - セルゲイ・グラズィーエフ
"ついにウクライナのまともな人々が、ゼレンスキーの主人たちが自分たちとその土地を売買したために虐殺を宣告したことを理解する時が来たのだ。ゼレンスキーはウクライナの人々の殺人者である。" - セルゲイ・グラズィーエフ
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 13:38| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

Odessa and Chernigov

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 08:11| Comment(0) | ウクライナ



posted by ZUKUNASHI at 09:45| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


ウクライナ、重要な武器が不足 - FT

Ukraine running out of vital weapons – FT
Kiev is starting to feel the shortage of anti-air capabilities with no adequate restocking in sight, a senior Ukrainian official told the outlet
Ukraine is exhausting its supplies of munitions and spare parts for the Soviet-era S-300 and Buk air defense systems used to counter Russian strikes on the nation’s energy infrastructure, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing a senior Ukrainian military official.

The Ukrainian Air Force’s chief spokesperson, Colonel Yury Ignat, told the outlet that his air defense units usually fire two S-300 or Buk missiles at every Russian projectile to raise the chances of interception. This poses certain challenges, however, since it is impossible for Ukraine to procure additional missiles for these systems, which are produced in Russia. Meanwhile, finding the available stocks elsewhere has proven difficult, the report says.

Ignat went on to state that while Kiev is receiving modern air defense systems from its Western backers, Ukraine would need “hundreds” of such weapons to replace its aging arsenal.

“We have no other choice but to switch to these types of weapons since the Soviet weapons of the [19]70s and [19]80s are both… obsolete and the enemy is exhausting them every day,” he said.

Russia started targeting Ukrainian energy facilities in early October after accusing Kiev of attacking its critical infrastructure, including the strategic Crimean Bridge. The latest wave of Russian missile attacks came on December 5 after Ukrainian drones targeted Russian airfields in Saratov and Ryazan Regions, killing three service members and injuring four others.

Kiev has repeatedly asked Western countries to supply it with air defense capabilities. On Monday, the Group of Seven (G7), which includes Kiev’s most prominent Western backers, signaled that they plan to put “an immediate focus on providing Ukraine with air defense systems.” 

However, on Sunday, the EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said that the bloc’s security assistance to Kiev had depleted its stockpiles. The US is apparently experiencing the same issues, with CNN reporting last month that the Department of Defense is running low on some advanced weapons systems and munitions to give to Kiev.

Moscow has repeatedly warned the West that arms shipments to Ukraine would only prolong the conflict. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the West had de-facto turned Ukraine into “a colony” and is using Ukrainians “as cannon fodder” and a battering ram against Russia while supplying Kiev with weapons.
ウクライナ、重要な武器が不足 - FT



「[19]70 年代と [19]80 年代のソビエトの兵器はどちらも時代遅れであり、敵は毎日使い果たしているため、これらのタイプの兵器に切り替える以外に選択肢はありません」と彼は言いました。





posted by ZUKUNASHI at 22:26| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


Germany should do business with Russia again – Scholz
After Moscow loses in Ukraine, the German chancellor explained
Once Russia ends the conflict in Ukraine, it should be given a chance to do business with Germany again, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday. He repeated that Moscow must and will not win, however.

A Russian government that ends the hostilities “needs a chance to restart economic cooperation, in another time when this is possible,” Scholz said in Berlin, at a meeting of the Eastern Committee for German Business (OA), a trade association focused on relations with Eastern Europe. “Now is not that time.”

"At the moment, the relationships we have are being scaled back,” Scholz said, according to the weekly Zeit. The EU is “tightening the sanctions” now, but Russia will remain the largest country on the European continent after the conflict is resolved. “It is therefore very important that we make preparations for this time.”

Scholz described the current conflict as an attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to re-create a Russian Empire that is destroying the country’s future instead, and accused Moscow of atrocities against the Ukrainian civilians. Russia must not win “and Russian will not win, either,” he told the business group.

Berlin’s determination to ditch Russian energy imports – pushed mainly by Scholz’s Green coalition partners – created troubles for Germany even before the gas deliveries were disrupted by the sabotage on Nord Stream pipelines in September. Germans are now trying to make up the shortages from elsewhere, though unsuccessfully.

Earlier this month, Germany’s ambassador in Washington admitted to the economic troubles, but said this was a small price to pay for a “profound transformation” of her country into a remilitarized continental power, more hostile to Russia and closer to the US.

For all of Scholz’s promises to help Ukraine, Kiev has continued to browbeat Berlin about deliveries of tanks and even more artillery. Last week, the chancellor’s predecessor Angela Merkel admitted that the 2014 Minsk agreement was not aimed at resolving the conflict in Donbass, but to "give Ukraine time" to arm against Russia.

Putin said he was disappointed by Merkel’s admission and that the trust between Moscow and Berlin was now “almost at zero.”


"現時点では、今ある関係は縮小されている "と、週刊誌ツァイトによると、ショルツは言った。EUは今、「制裁を強化」しているが、紛争解決後もロシアは欧州大陸の最大国であることに変わりはない。"したがって、この時のための準備をすることが非常に重要である"。





プーチンはメルケルの告白に失望したと述べ、モスクワとベルリンの信頼関係は今や "ほぼゼロ "になっていると述べた。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 12:28| Comment(0) | ウクライナ



Russia warns West will face ‘consequences’ for arming Ukraine
Foreign-supplied rockets and shells are being used to strike schools and homes, Russia’s UN envoy Vassily Nebenzia says
Western countries whose weapons are being used by Ukrainian troops to kill civilians in Donbass will face legal consequences, Russia’s envoy to the United Nations has warned.

Speaking at the UN Security Council on Friday, Vassily Nebenzia said HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and M982 Excalibur guided artillery shells were being used to indiscriminately fire on Donetsk and other cities.

“For example, the Druzhba sports arena [in Donetsk], where drinking water was being distributed to civilians, was attacked on December 4 with an Excalibur shell. The Ukrainian forces, emboldened by Western countries, are literally trying to level the city,” the Russian diplomat said.

According to Nebenzia, 22 civilians have been killed and more than 80 wounded in Donbass since November 27, and numerous homes and schools have been damaged. He added that HIMARS rockets have hit civilian sites, such as kindergartens and hotels.

“We are carefully recording all such criminal activities by the US and their allies. They will lead to concrete legal repercussions for all who are involved,” Nebenzia said.

Can all of these many recorded strikes on civilian sites be mistakes or accidents? It is obvious that it is a conscious and deliberate participation of the US and NATO in the crimes of the Kiev authorities.

The Pentagon announced an additional $275 million in security and military aid to Ukraine on Friday, including HIMARS rockets and 80,000 155mm artillery rounds.

Moscow has previously described deliveries of long-range and heavy weapons to Ukraine as “red lines,” warning it could lead to a direct conflict between Russia and the West. Washington and its allies insist they are not a party to the hostilities, but continue sending arms shipments to Kiev.









US greenlights Ukrainian attacks inside Russia – The Times
Washington now reportedly believes such strikes are less likely to trigger a direct clash between Moscow and NATO
The US has quietly given Ukraine the go-ahead to launch long-range strikes against targets inside Russian territory, The Times reported on Friday, citing sources. The Pentagon has apparently changed its stance on the matter as it has become less concerned that such attacks could escalate the conflict.

According to a US defense source interviewed by the outlet, the Pentagon is now “not saying to Kiev, ‘Don’t strike the Russians [in Russia or Crimea].’

“We can’t tell them what to do. It’s up to them how they use their weapons,” he said, adding that Washington only demands that Kiev conforms to international law and the Geneva conventions when using US-supplied weapons.

However, the Pentagon has revised the evaluation of threats linked to the Ukraine conflict, particularly on whether providing Kiev with arms might trigger a direct clash between NATO and Russia, the report says.

“We’re still using the same escalatory calculations but the fear of escalation has changed since the beginning,” a US official told the outlet, arguing that the calculus had changed due to “brutality the Ukrainians are being subjected to by the Russians.”

Against this backdrop, Pentagon officials are now reportedly “seriously” considering Ukraine’s requests for long-range weapons that could be used for strikes deep inside Russia. “Nothing is off the table,” a senior US defense official told The Times.

Earlier this month, Ukraine launched an attack on two Russian air bases in Ryazan and Saratov regions, both several hundred kilometers from Kiev-controlled territory, using a number of “Soviet-made” drones, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry. The raid “fatally injured” three service members, with another four being taken to hospital.

On Tuesday, following the attack, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that Washington had “neither encouraged nor enabled the Ukrainians to strike inside of Russia.”

The report comes as Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba claimed on Thursday that, while Washington and Kiev agree that Ukrainian forces will not use US-supplied weapons to attack most Russian territory, this does not apply to Crimea.

In September, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned the US that, should it provide Kiev with long-range weapons, this would cross a “red line” and make America “a direct party to the conflict.”
米国、ウクライナのロシア国内での攻撃を容認 - The Times









posted by ZUKUNASHI at 18:56| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:03| Comment(0) | ウクライナ