EUの石油価格上限は「暴力的」なスパイクをもたらす可能性 - エコノミスト: ずくなしの冷や水


EUの石油価格上限は「暴力的」なスパイクをもたらす可能性 - エコノミスト

EU oil price cap may result in ‘violent’ spikes – Economist
Restricting Russian seaborne crude supply may shatter the energy market, according to the outlet
As the European Union’s sanctions on Russian oil are about to kick in next week, the measure could result in price shocks on the global market, The Economist reported on Friday. The EU has agreed on a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil.

According to the report, European insurers and shipping firms have long had a “vice-like hold” on energy markets. Fully 95% of property and indemnity insurance for all oil tankers has been handled by firms from the UK and the EU. This appeared to be a lever with which the West could control the sale of Russian oil globally.

However, if Russian oil fails to make it to the market, then global oil prices may spike, hurting Western consumers, the outlet writes. “Hence America’s Treasury Department has since devised a cunning plan to water it down: to let European firms continue to offer their services, provided the oil involved is bought at a suppressed price set by the West.”

Everything depends on how Moscow responds, according to the Economist report, which warns the Kremlin could cut its oil exports, relying on a smaller group of non-Western tankers and insurers, and sending global prices spiraling.

“The other uncertainty is how much power the West will ultimately wield over global oil markets.”

The report noted that countries such as China, India and Indonesia want to avoid participating in Western sanctions and embargoes. They are reportedly seeking alternative sources of day-to-day insurance–and, because the ban was announced six months ago, “have had time to prepare.”

According to The Economist, the “true balance of power” in oil markets will become apparent after December 5, with a “violent price spike” possible.

“Just as financial sanctions have energized attempts to evade the Western banking system, so the war will lead China, India and others to circumvent the West’s energy infrastructure. As weapons, sanctions and embargoes have their limits–and a finite shelf-life,” the outlet concludes.






報告書は、中国、インド、インドネシアなどの国々が、欧米の制裁や禁輸に参加することを避けたいと考えていることを指摘した。彼らは代替の日常的な保険源を求めているとされ、禁止が6カ月前に発表されたため、"準備する時間があった "という。


Shipping costs for Russian oil rising – Bloomberg
Carriers are reportedly charging more for cargo due to risks ahead of EU restrictions on trade in crude
The costs of transporting Russian oil are soaring as more tanker owners are avoiding the trade, while others are charging more for the risks involved ahead of EU sanctions that come into effect on December 5, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

The bloc’s expanded restrictions on trade in Russian crude will ban EU companies from providing services such as insurance, brokerage or financial assistance to vessels carrying oil from the sanctions-hit country, unless the cargo is purchased below an agreed price. Similar restrictions, including a price cap for other petroleum products, are due in February.

Shipbrokers told the agency that Baltic Sea-to-India rates are being discussed at about $15 million, or $20 a barrel, for loadings after December 5, marking a sharp increase from the rates that, so far, have been fluctuating from $9 million to $11.5 million.

The reduced availability of tankers, as well as the need for Russian producers to reorient oil from traditional buyers in the EU to new ones in Asia and the Middle East, are also contributing to higher rates. Meanwhile, pricey freight is sending the value of Russian crude, such as its flagship Urals grade, plummeting at their load port, as sellers ensure that the final price of the cargo remains competitive against alternatives.

Late on Thursday, EU leaders tentatively agreed to set the price cap threshold for Russian seaborne crude at $60 per barrel. The governments also decided to implement an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap at 5% below the market price, Reuters reported, citing diplomat sources and documentation.
ロシア産原油の輸送コストが上昇 - ブルームバーグ


船舶ブローカーが同機関に語ったところによると、12 月 5 日以降のバルチック海からインドへの積荷は、約 1500 万ドル(1 バレル 20 ドル)で協議されており、これまで 900 万ドルから 1150 万ドルで変動していたレートから急騰している。



Russia doubles down on oil price warning
Moscow will only deal with nations “that will work with us on market conditions,” Alexander Novak said
Russia won’t sell oil at the $60 price limit agreed by the EU and G7 nations, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday. Novak added that Moscow is “working on mechanisms” to bypass the price cap.

The EU agreed to cap the price of seaborne Russian oil at $60 per barrel or at least 5% below market rates, the EU Council announced on Saturday. The rest of the G7 states and Australia made a similar announcement on Friday, stating that they too would refuse to handle Russian oil above $60 per barrel.

Russia has repeatedly insisted that it will not supply oil to countries honoring this price ceiling.

“We will sell oil and oil products only to countries that will work with us on market conditions, even if we would have to lower production,” he said on the Rossiya-24 TV channel on Sunday.

While the EU has already cut itself off from seaborne Russian oil deliveries, the price cap would forbid European firms from transporting Russian oil priced above the $60 limit by denying them shipping insurance. Ships belonging to third countries would also be denied insurance, financing, and servicing by EU firms. The G7’s agreement works in the exact same manner.

Novak predicted that the price cap will “destabilize” global markets, and argued that it contradicts World Trade Organization rules. Russia, he said, is “working on mechanisms” to skirt the measure.

While a production cut would decrease Russia’s oil revenues, its impact in the short term would likely be limited, given that Russian oil is currently trading at $64 per barrel, just $4 above the price cap. Moreover, critics of the price ceiling argue that a decision by Russia not to supply participating nations would punish consumers in these states with higher prices.

“It’s the most ridiculous idea I’ve ever heard,” former US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said last month. “The market is going to set the price. So if you put sanctions on at higher prices, in a way you’re just making the situation worse,” he added.







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