ユーロ圏の景気後退は目前: ずくなしの冷や水



Eurozone recession warning issued
The economic downturn across the 19-nation bloc has deepened, says S&P Global
The Eurozone’s economic downturn deepened in September, with business activity contracting for a third consecutive month, a new survey by S&P Global showed.

The report found that manufacturers across the 19-country union were hit hard by skyrocketing energy costs, with the purchasing managers index (PMI) sinking to its lowest level since 2013. The PMI, which is seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, fell from 48.9 in August to 48.2 in September.

Surging energy prices and the rising cost of living are “not only hitting demand but also limiting manufacturing production and service-sector activity in some cases,” S&P Global economist Chris Williamson said in a statement seen by Bloomberg.

“A Eurozone recession is on the cards,” Williamson warned, noting “Germany is facing the toughest conditions, with the economy deteriorating at a rate not seen outside of the pandemic since the global financial crisis.”

Overall demand in the Eurozone plunged to its lowest mark since November 2020, when the continent was in the grips of the second wave of the Covid pandemic. The business expectations index also declined, slipping to 53.8 from last month’s 56.6, its lowest reading since May 2020.

S&P Global expects the euro area’s economy to shrink by 0.1% in the third quarter.



"ユーロ圏の景気後退は目前だ "とウィリアムソン氏は警告し、"ドイツは最も厳しい状況に直面しており、世界金融危機以来、パンデミック以外では見られなかった速度で経済が悪化している "と指摘した。



Worst bond market crash in over 70 years coming – Bloomberg
The central banks’ aggressive interest rate hikes could cause a heavy selloff, strategists reportedly warn
Global government bonds are on course for their worst performance since 1949 as losses mount in the face of aggressive central banks, Bloomberg reported over the weekend citing Bank of America projections.

According to the report, the escalating losses reflect how far the US Federal Reserve and other central banks have shifted away from the monetary policies of the Covid pandemic, when they held rates near zero to keep their economies going. The reversal has hit everything from stock prices to oil as investors brace for an economic slowdown.

On Friday, the UK’s five-year bonds plummeted by the most since 1992 after the government rolled out a massive tax-cut plan. Two-year US Treasuries are in the middle of the longest losing streak since at least 1976, falling for 12 straight days.

“Bottom line, all those years of central bank interest-rate suppression - poof, gone,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group told the media outlet. “These bonds are trading like emerging market bonds, and the biggest financial bubble in the history of bubbles, that of sovereign bonds, continues to deflate,” he explained.

The Fed raised its policy-rate range to 3.25% on Wednesday, which is its third straight 75-basis-point hike, hinting further increases beyond 4.5%.

“With more Fed rate hiking coming and quantitative tightening, as well as the possibly more government debt issuance down the road amid less Treasury buyers out there now, it all just means higher rates,” managing director at Mischler Financial Glen Capelo said, adding: “The 10-year yield is definitely going to get closer to 4%.”

According to Bloomberg, in the coming week the market may face fresh volatility from the release of inflation data and public speaking engagements by Fed officials. Also, the sale of new two-, five- and seven-year Treasuries will likely spur trading volatility in those benchmarks, it reports.
70年以上ぶりの債券市場の大暴落がやってくる - Bloomberg







EU central bank warns ‘outlook is darkening’

The ECB has slashed growth forecasts, hiking interest rates even as it predicts inflation will climb further
Europe is facing lower-than-expected economic growth as inflation continues to climb, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde revealed on Monday, explaining that the ECB had raised interest rates by 75 basis points in an attempt to control soaring prices.

Speaking before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Monday, Lagarde admitted that “inflation remains far too high and is likely to stay above our target for an extended period.”

The former IMF boss warned that the “economic consequences for the euro area” of “Russia’s unjustified war of aggression on Ukraine” had spiraled further since June, a reference to Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas, which have sent fuel prices skyrocketing.

“The outlook is darkening,” she said.

While the Eurozone economy grew 0.8% in the second quarter, Lagarde said the ECB expected activity to “slow substantially” over the rest of 2022, to a total of 3.1% over the year and a mere 0.9% for all of 2023. Things will improve marginally in 2024, with growth projected at 1.9%, she said.

Much of this quarter’s economic growth was due to “strong consumer spending” driven by the reopening of Covid-shuttered industries like tourism, Lagarde said, while noting a decline in global demand due to what she called the “worsening terms of trade.”

High inflation is being “reinforced by gas supply disruptions,” she said, adding that “uncertainty” and “falling household and business confidence” were also contributing to the bleak predictions.

Inflation hit 9.1% in August, driven by energy and food prices. The ECB has hiked its inflation projections accordingly, setting 8.1% for 2022, 5.5% for 2023, and 2.3% for 2024, with Lagarde pointing the finger again at “major disruptions in energy supplies.”

The central bank’s recent 75-point interest increase earlier this month was only the second hike in 11 years, after it added 50 basis points in July. Lagarde said the increase would “dampen demand” but ensure that “inflation expectations remain well anchored.”

Lagarde admitted the situation is expected to “get worse before it gets better” with regard to high energy and food costs − the most important issues for two out of three Europeans right now, according to a Eurobarometer survey.

She urged governments, however, to make sure fiscal support for “the most vulnerable households” was “temporary and targeted” so as not to exacerbate “inflationary pressures.”








今月初めに中央銀行が行った75ポイントの利上げは、7月に50ベーシスポイントを上乗せした後、11年ぶり2回目の利上げとなった。ラガルドは、この引き上げは "需要を減衰させる "が、"インフレ期待は十分に固定されたままである "ことを保証するものだと述べた。



Eurozone economic growth may drop to zero – ECB
Economic output has been suffering due to rising energy costs
Eurozone economic growth has slumped and could soon wind down to zero, the European Central Bank (ECB) vice president said on Monday.

“We are seeing that in the third and fourth quarters there is a significant slowdown and we may find ourselves with growth rates close to zero,” Luis de Guindos said at a conference, according to Reuters.

Economic output has been suffering due to soaring energy costs and the loss of Russian natural gas, which has raised the risk of energy rationing during the upcoming heating season. Elevated energy prices propelled euro area annual inflation to 9.1% in August, and are expected to drive it up to 9.6% this month, a record high for the region.

The ECB raised interest rates earlier this month by an unprecedented 75 basis points, mere weeks after a 50 basis-point move in order to fight inflation. The regulator said more rate hikes are coming, with analysts expecting another rate move in October, with more increases at every meeting through next spring.

De Guindos did not disclose how aggressive these upcoming moves will be, noting only that they will be “data-dependent” and stressing that inflationary pressures have significantly increased in recent months.

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