セルビア・コソボ間の協定が成立: ずくなしの冷や水

2022年08月29日

セルビア・コソボ間の協定が成立


Fyodor Lukyanov: Why are Serbia and Kosovo on the brink of war again?
A conflict frozen for two decades could erupt again as a consequence of the new systemic Cold War in Europe
Tensions between Belgrade and Pristina occur regularly, as a result of the fact that the Kosovo issue has not been resolved since 1999, when the province de facto gained independence after the US-led NATO campaign against the former Yugoslavia.

However, this time there is a risk of more or less routine friction escalating into a dangerous conflict, because the context has changed dramatically.

The problem of Kosovo was solved at the end of the twentieth century in strict accordance with the then dominant approach, and in the seeming absence of an alternative. Disputes in most of Europe (ie. outside the former USSR) were settled according to the EU's ideas of fairness, and where they could not be worked out amicably, pressure was exerted on those who rebelled, up to the use of military force (primarily American, as always).

The most recalcitrant players were in the Balkans – in the first half of the 1990s, the Bosnian war took place, and in the second - the Kosovan conflict.

Without assessing the quality and moral aspects of politics over the past 25 years, we can talk about the most important thing. The region developed in conditions where the only future roadmap for the various states was eventual membership of the EU – the prospects of which varied from relatively close or very distant, but inevitable.

There were no other options, no plans B, C or D. Accordingly, it was the EU that regulated the processes taking place locally, and, in general, this setup was taken for granted.

Moreover, other powers which have been traditionally active and important in the Balkans – Russia and Turkey - indicated their presence (sometimes quite clearly), but did not pretend to have a decisive voice in the way things were arranged. This framework also defined the room for maneuver of the countries of the region, including those who were most loudly dissatisfied, like Serbia.

Now two main circumstances have changed. First, the EU is in such a vulnerable state that it is not ready to take full responsibility for the extremely complex political situation in its immediate periphery. It cannot promise membership, and more precisely - even if such a pledge were made, it doesn’t guarantee anything.

The EU’s management of the central Balkan problems – in Bosnian and Kosovo – has not led to the desired outcome over the past quarter of a century. Thus, it’s all the less likely that it will work out now. Because the second circumstance is that Russia and the West (the EU plus the US and NATO) are in a state of acute confrontation.

As a result, there is no reason to expect Moscow's assistance in resolving the situation (be it Kosovo or Bosnia). Right now, the West's favorite practice of "selective interaction" (we work together with Russia where we need it, we refuse to engage on other issues) can no longer be applied. There will be no cooperation: Russia and the West will be on opposite sides of the barricades everywhere, no matter the issue at hand. We are in a systemic cold war. And this reality can greatly influence what will happen in the Balkans.

The question is to what extent the regional actors have retained their passion for showdown, revenge or expansion. There are suspicions that this zeal has been exhausted and emasculated. But if it still burns, then external forces will enter the fray this time, supporting the opposite sides.
ベオグラードとプリシュティナの間には、米国主導の対ユーゴスラビア作戦により事実上独立した1999年以来、コソボ問題が解決されていないため、定期的に緊張が生じる。

しかし、今回は文脈が大きく変化したため、多かれ少なかれ日常的な摩擦が危険な紛争にエスカレートする危険性がある。

コソボ問題は、20世紀末に、当時の支配的なアプローチに厳格に従い、また代替案がないように見える中で解決された。ヨーロッパの大半(つまり旧ソ連以外)の紛争は、EUの公平性の考え方に従って解決され、友好的に解決できない場合は、反抗する者に軍事力(主にアメリカ)の行使に至るまで圧力がかけられた。

最も反抗的だったのはバルカン半島で、1990年代前半にはボスニア紛争が、後半にはコソボ紛争が起こった。

過去25年間の政治の質や道徳的な面を評価することなく、最も重要なことについて話すことができる。この地域は、さまざまな国家にとって将来のロードマップが最終的にEUに加盟することしかない状況で発展した。その見通しは、比較的近いものから非常に遠いものまでさまざまだったが、必然的なものであった。

したがって、この地域で起きているプロセスを規制するのはEUであり、一般に、この仕組みは当然のものだと考えられていた。

さらに、バルカン半島で伝統的に活発で重要な役割を担ってきた他の勢力、すなわちロシアとトルコは、その存在を(時には極めて明確に)示しながらも、物事の進め方について決定的な発言力を持つようなそぶりは見せなかった。この枠組みはまた、セルビアのように最も不満を露わにしていた国々を含む、この地域の国々の行動範囲を規定するものであった。

現在、2つの大きな状況が変化しています。第一に、EUは脆弱な状態にあり、その周辺にある極めて複雑な政治状況に対して全責任を負う準備ができていないことです。EUは加盟を約束することはできませんし、より正確には、たとえそのような約束をしたとしても、それは何も保証するものではありません。

バルカンの中心的な問題であるボスニアとコソボにおけるEUの管理は、過去四半世紀にわたって望ましい結果にはつながっていません。したがって、今うまくいく可能性は限りなく低い。なぜなら、第二の事情は、ロシアと西側諸国(EUに米国とNATOを加えたもの)が深刻な対立状態にあることだ。

その結果、(コソボであれボスニアであれ)事態の解決にモスクワの援助を期待する理由はない。今、西側諸国が好んで行っている「選択的交流」(必要なところではロシアと協力し、それ以外の問題では関与を拒否する)は、もはや適用することができない。協力はあり得ない。ロシアと西側諸国は、どのような問題であっても、どこでもバリケードの反対側に立つことになる。我々はシステム的な冷戦状態にあるのだ。そしてこの現実は、バルカン半島で何が起こるかに大きく影響する可能性がある。

問題は、地域のアクターたちが、対決、復讐、あるいは拡大への情熱をどこまで持ち続けているかである。この情熱が枯渇し、衰弱しているのではないかという疑いもある。しかし、もしそれがまだ燃えているとすれば、今度は外部の勢力が参戦し、対立する側を支援することになるだろう。

Kosovo delays crackdown on Serbs
Advised by the US ambassador, Pristina delays ban on Serbian documents that triggered protests
Authorities in the breakaway Serbian province of Kosovo announced late on Sunday they would postpone the implementation of their ban on Serbian license plates and identification documents until September 1.

The US ambassador reportedly urged Pristina to do so, as Kosovo police were met with roadblocks erected by local Serbs and NATO peacekeepers deployed to prevent clashes.

The delay was accompanied by a demand from PM Albin Kurti’s government that the Serbs dismantle their barricades, according to Pristina-based TV station Dukagjini, which said that Kurti’s decision followed a request by US ambassador to Kosovo, Jeffrey Hovenier.

Postponing the measures is necessary due to “misinformation and misunderstandings” about its nature, the outlet quoted Hovenier as saying. The US only asked for the implementation to be postponed, not canceled, he added.

Serbs in the north of the breakaway province had set up roadblocks and rung alarm bells earlier in the day, as heavily armed special police under Pristina’s authority took control of two administrative crossings with Serbia. Kurti’s government insisted that they would start barring vehicles with Serbian-issued license plates and other documents, in the name of imposing “law and order” on the entire territory of the province.

Both the local Serbs and Belgrade have objected, pointing out that Pristina has repeatedly failed to honor its obligations to respect the Serbs’ civil and human rights. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said the Serbs “will not suffer any more atrocities,” and vowed to “win” if the ethnic Albanian government persisted in “persecuting, harassing and killing Serbs.”

Kurti’s government responded by accusing Vucic of masterminding the illegal roadblocks, aimed at undermining the “democratic and progressive” Kosovo. President Vjosa Osmani’s chief of staff also claimed Belgrade was acting as a proxy of Russia.

Amid unconfirmed and often conflicting reports of armed Albanians massing on approaches to Serb-majority towns and gunfire that may or may not have injured civilians, NATO’s peacekeeping force in the province, KFOR, announced it was “prepared to intervene if stability is jeopardized.”

Meanwhile, Russia accused Pristina of deliberately escalating the situation as part of NATO’s effort to target Serbia. Kosovo and its US and EU backers to “stop provocations and respect the rights of Serbs,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Sunday.

On Sunday evening, Vucic held talks with the KFOR leadership from the headquarters of the Serbian General Staff. After emerging from the building shortly before midnight, he told reporters he was optimistic about a peaceful resolution.

“I hope this will de-escalate by tomorrow, and that we will be able to reach a solution in the coming days,” Vucic said, adding that the KFOR commander will hold talks on dismantling the roadblocks with the local authorities in Kosovska Mitrovica.

“In the coming weeks and months we face the hardest political fight ever, so I thank everyone for their restraint, most of all the Serbs in Kosovo,” said Vucic. “There will be no surrender, and Serbia will win.”

NATO occupied Kosovo in 1999, after a 78-day air war against what was then Yugoslavia. The province declared independence in 2008, with Western support. While the US and most of its allies have recognized it, Serbia, Russia, China and the UN in general have not.

Serbia accused of ‘Putin’s playbook’ in Kosovo
Kosovo officials deny crackdown on ethnic Serbs, accuse Belgrade of undermining their progressive democracy
Kosovo accused Serbia on Sunday of fomenting unrest and trying to undermine the “rule of law” in the breakaway province. Prime Minister Albin Kurti claimed the local Serbs had opened fire on Kosovo police, while the president’s cabinet said Belgrade was acting on behalf of Russia.

In a video message on Sunday afternoon, Kurti claimed that “illegal Serbian structures in the north started blocking roads and firing guns” at Pristina’s special police, even before they were deployed to the administrative line with Serbia. Kurti said last week that starting August 1, his government will not allow anyone with Serbian license plates or documents to cross into or out of the province, which has claimed to be an independent state since 2008.

“The Government of the Republic of Kosovo is democratic and progressive, which loves, respects and implements the law and constitutionalism, peace and security, for all citizens without distinction and for our entire common country,” Kurti said.

Kosovo is facing “Serbian national-chauvinism” and “misinformation” from Belgrade, he added, urging his citizens to be vigilant.

Kurti blamed Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and his commissioner for Kosovo Petar Petkovic for the “aggressive actions” and “threats” from Belgrade.

Meanwhile, the chief of staff of President Vjosa Osmani went on Twitter to accuse Serbia of playing a “spoiler role” in Europe on behalf of Russia. Blerim Vela accused Vucic of “a textbook repetition of Putin’s playbook“ – referring to NATO’s claims about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s behavior in Ukraine – by spreading fear and lies, claiming the Serbs were being persecuted and “ramping up militaristic rhetoric.”

Vela also claimed that Kosovo Serbs have set up barricades on Vucic’s “direct orders” and called it a “blatant attempt to undermine rule of law.”

Earlier on Sunday, Vucic gave an address to the nation, blaming the breakaway province for violating the human rights of local Serbs, who “will not suffer any more atrocities.”

“My plea to everyone is to try to keep the peace at almost any cost. I am asking the Albanians to come to their senses, the Serbs not to fall for provocations, but I am also asking the representatives of powerful and large countries, which have recognized the so-called independence of Kosovo, to pay a little attention to international law and reality on the ground and not to allow their wards to cause conflict,” he said.

NATO occupied Kosovo in 1999, after a 78-day air war against what was then Yugoslavia. The province declared independence in 2008, with Western support. While the US and most of its allies have recognized it, Serbia, Russia, China and the UN in general have not.

Russia warns Kosovo against conflict
The Foreign Ministry condemned the discriminatory crackdown on Serbs by Pristina, the US and EU

The government in Pristina and its backers in Brussels and Washington should stop their provocations and respect the rights of ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Sunday. Serbian troops were put on high alert and local residents in the north of the breakaway province erected barricades, as ethnic Albanian police prepared for a crackdown.

Air raid sirens and church bells went off across northern Kosovo on Sunday, after prime minister Albin Kurti announced a police operation to ban Serb license plates and identification documents. Kurti claimed this was about equal justice and law in all the territories his government claims.

Pristina’s decision is unreasonable and discriminatory, and their forced replacement of personal documents is “another step towards the expulsion of the Serb population from Kosovo, as well as the Kosovo Serb institutions that ensure the protection of the rights of Serbian residents from the arbitrary whims of radicals in Pristina,” Zakharova said.

Kurti is “deliberately escalating” in order to launch an armed crackdown, not just against the Serbs in Kosovo but against Belgrade, which the West wants to “neutralize” using the ethnic Albanians as proxies, added Zakharova.

Russia calls on “Pristina and the US and EU behind it to stop provocations and respect the rights of Serbs in Kosovo,” the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said.

Earlier in the day, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said his country had “never been in a more complex and difficult situation” and that the Pristina authorities are trying to exploit the current situation in the world to initiate a conflict while painting itself as a victim.

No Serbian troops have crossed the administrative line into Kosovo yet, the Defense Ministry in Belgrade said, describing such rumors circulating on social media as “disinformation” on behalf of Pristina.

Local Serb residents erected barricades at three checkpoints along the administrative line, where police answering to Kurti were deployed to stop all vehicles with Serbian plates or documents. There were unconfirmed reports of gunfire and injuries among the civilians.

Kosovo was occupied by NATO in 1999, after a 78-day air war against Yugoslavia. The ethnic Albanian government in Pristina declared independence in 2008, with US backing, but has not been recognized by Serbia, Russia, China or the UN.

Serbia-Kosovo deal reached
The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell has announced an agreement on the freedom of movement between Belgrade and Pristina
Serbia and Kosovo have reached an “agreement on freedom of movement” following weeks of tensions, the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said on Saturday, adding that he was “happy to announce” the deal between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo’s prime minister Albin Kurti.

Following the last week’s meeting between the two leaders in Brussels and “intense follow-up efforts in Pristina and Belgrade,” Serbia agreed to abolish entry and exit documents for Kosovo ID holders, and Kosovo agreed to not introduce ones for Serbian ID holders, Borrell said in a statement.

Serbs living in the northern part of the breakaway province as well as other Kosovo residents will be able to freely travel between Serbia and Kosovo using their existing ID cards, the statement said, adding that the EU had “received guarantees from Prime Minister Kurti to this end.”

Borrell then praised the development by saying that “we found a European solution that facilitates travel between Kosovo and Serbia.” He also particularly lauded Vucic’s actions by saying that the Serbian president “showed responsibility and leadership today.” The senior EU diplomat also thanked the US “for their support to the EU-facilitated dialogue,” calling it “an example of excellent practical EU-US cooperation.”

Borrell admitted that “the problem with the license plates” had not yet been resolved and called on the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo to “continue showing pragmatism and constructiveness” in this regard as well. Still, he said that “today is a very good day.”

Belgrade seemingly did not share Brussels’ joyful sentiment. Speaking to Serbian citizens on Saturday, Vucic described the talks with “Albanians from Kosovo” as “very unsuccessful, extremely difficult,” adding that “in the end we came to the point that we do not agree on anything.”

The Serbian leader insisted that “mutual recognition” will never be on the agenda as Belgrade “cannot forget that Kosovo is part of Serbia.” He also said that officials in Brussels are wasting their time and money if they think they would be able to facilitate such an agreement.

Vucic did confirm that Serbia would accept Kosovo’s IDs when it comes to travel but would only do so “for practical reasons,” to “enable freedom of movement.” Such a step “cannot be interpreted as recognition of the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo, nor does it prejudice sovereignty,” he added.

What is important is that “Serbs from Kosovo and Metohija can move and enter and leave the territory of Kosovo and Metohija freely,” Vucic said, adding that Belgrade is asking “for guarantees from EU, we ask that every Serb from the north of Kosovo and Metohija can enter the territory of Kosovo and Metohija with Serbian documents, and that they can leave whenever they want.”

We are always ready for a compromise, but we have not come to that. Kurti is convinced that with their propaganda, they will succeed in convincing the Serbian people to give up their state of Serbia.


The development came a day after the US envoy for the Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, called on Serbia to recognize Kosovo and promised prosperity in the EU for both of them instead. Vucic responded by saying that he was not surprised to hear something like that from a US diplomat.

“Don’t forget that he represents American politics. What do you expect from him, what news is this for you?!” the Serbian president said on Saturday, adding that “they [the US] tell us this for 23 years!”

セルビア・コソボ間の協定が成立
EUのトップ外交官ジョセップ・ボレルは、ベオグラードとプリシュティナ間の移動の自由に関する合意を発表した
セルビアとコソボは、数週間にわたる緊張状態を経て、「移動の自由に関する合意」に達したと、EUのトップ外交官ジョセップ・ボレルは土曜日に述べ、セルビアのアレクサンダル・ヴチッチ大統領とコソボのアルビン・クルティ首相の間で「合意を発表できて幸せである」と加えた。

先週ブリュッセルで行われた両首脳の会談と「プリシュティナとベオグラードでの熱心なフォローアップの努力」を経て、セルビアはコソボID保持者の出入国書類を廃止することに同意し、コソボはセルビアID保持者の書類を導入しないことに同意したとボレル氏は声明の中で述べた。

また、EUは「クルティ首相からこの目的のための保証を得た」と付け加えた。

そしてボレルは、「我々は、コソボとセルビアの間の移動を容易にする欧州の解決策を見出した」と述べ、この進展を賞賛した。また、特にヴチッチ大統領の行動を称賛し、セルビア大統領は「今日、責任感とリーダーシップを発揮した」と述べた。EUの上級外交官はまた、「EUが促進した対話への米国の支援」に感謝し、これを「EUと米国の優れた実践的協力の例」と呼んだ。

ボレルは、「ナンバープレートに関する問題」がまだ解決されていないことを認め、この点についてもセルビアとコソボの指導者に「プラグマティズムと建設性を示し続ける」よう呼びかけた。それでも、"今日はとても良い日だ "と述べた。

ベオグラードは、ブリュッセルの喜びの感情を共有しなかったようだ。土曜日にセルビア国民に向けて語ったヴチッチは、「コソボのアルバニア人」との会談を「非常に失敗し、非常に困難だった」とし、「結局、我々は何も合意していないという点に行き着いた」と付け加えた。

セルビアの指導者は、ベオグラードが "コソボがセルビアの一部であることを忘れることはできない "として、「相互承認」が議題に上ることはないと主張した。また、ブリュッセルの当局者がそのような合意を促進できると考えているならば、時間とお金を無駄にしていると述べた。

ブチッチは、セルビアがコソボのIDを受け入れることを確認したが、それは「移動の自由を可能にする」という「実際的な理由」によるものである。このような措置は「コソボの一方的な独立宣言の承認と解釈することはできないし、主権を損なうものでもない」と付け加えた。

重要なのは、「コソボおよびメトヒヤ出身のセルビア人が移動し、コソボおよびメトヒヤの領土に自由に出入りできる」ことだとヴチッチは述べ、ベオグラードは「EUからの保証を求め、コソボおよびメトヒヤ北部出身のすべてのセルビア人がセルビア文書を持ってコソボおよびメトヒヤの領域に入り、いつでも出ていけることを求める」ことを付け加えた。

我々はいつでも妥協する用意があるが、それには至っていない。クルティは、彼らのプロパガンダによって、セルビア国民にセルビアという国家を手放すよう説得することに成功すると確信している。


この展開は、米国のバルカン半島担当特使ガブリエル・エスコバルがセルビアにコソボを承認するよう求め、代わりに両者のEUでの繁栄を約束した翌日に起きた。これに対してヴチッチ氏は、アメリカの外交官からそのようなことを聞いても驚かない、と答えた。

「彼はアメリカの政治を代表していることを忘れてはいけない。彼に何を期待するのか、あなたにとってどんなニュースなのか!」セルビア大統領は土曜日にこう言い、「彼ら(アメリカ)は23年間もこう言っているのだ!」と言い添えた。

www.DeepL.com/Translator(無料版)で翻訳しました。

7 nations ready to revoke recognition of Kosovo – Belgrade
This is the achievement of Serbian diplomacy, President Aleksandar Vucic says

当面軍事衝突は避けられました。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:19| Comment(0) | 国際・政治
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