2022/6/16・6/17: ずくなしの冷や水



US to give Ukraine another billon dollar weapons boost
Washington will send artillery and advanced rockets to Kiev
Washington will give Kiev another $1 billion in “security assistance,” including artillery, ammunition and advanced missiles, US President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday after a phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky.

Biden informed Zelensky that the aid would include “additional artillery and coastal defense weapons, as well as ammunition for the artillery and advanced rocket systems that the Ukrainians need to support their defensive operations in [Donbass],” according to a readout of the call released by the White House.

Macron calls on Ukraine to resume talks with Russia
Offering to mediate, the French president said that Zelensky ‘is going to have to negotiate with Russia’ in the future

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday that his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky will have to restart negotiations with Russia at some point, offering mediation in the process.

“We want peace, which means that once we reach a ceasefire, discussions must resume,” the French leader said during a visit to Romania.

“The Ukrainian president is going to have to negotiate with Russia, and we Europeans will be present at that table to offer security guarantees,” Macron added, speaking to the media alongside his Romanian counterpart, Klaus Iohannis

Macron's visit included meetings with political leaders and with French troops deployed to the Mihail Kogalniceanu military base as part of NATO’s build-up on the eastern European flank. He touted the 500-strong presence of French soldiers as a “clear message of commitment” to the bloc’s policy during a speech at the base.

NATO has ramped up troop presence across Eastern Europe, claiming it was necessary to deter Russia from attacking. Moscow perceives the buildup as confirmation of the bloc's hostility towards Russia and an encroachment on its borders.

During the press conference with Iohannis, Macron reiterated that prolonged hostility with Russia was not a viable long-term solution for European security.
“We Europeans share a continent with Russia, and geography is stubborn. Russia is here today, will be here tomorrow and was here yesterday,” he said.

Macron's visit to Romania may be followed up by a trip to Ukraine, during which he would be joined by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. The tour was not officially confirmed but was widely reported to be in the pipeline.
Ukraine has held several rounds of talks with Russia, during which some progress was made in formulating a possible peace agreement. Kiev pledged to maintain a neutral status and refrain from military cooperation with NATO in exchange for getting security guarantees from leading world powers, including Russia.

The talks were cut short after Ukraine accused Russian troops of committing war crimes in the town of Bucha near Kiev. President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that his people would not support any peace deal with Moscow due to the alleged atrocities, which Russia denies committing.

Zelensky stated that instead of seeking a compromise, Ukraine will win the fight against Russia on the battlefield with the help of foreign weapons, and aid poured into Ukraine by the US and its allies. Ukrainian officials blamed the slow pace of the arming of its military by the West for the continued loss of territory to Russian forces, as well as the high number of casualties that Ukraine has suffered in the fighting.

US backs idea of another European military bloc
Washington would support a possible security alliance between the UK, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States, its envoy to NATO says
The US Permanent Representative to NATO, Julianne Smith, said on Tuesday that Washington would “want to support” the idea of a new security alliance, which could reportedly include Ukraine, the UK, Poland, the Baltic States, and possibly Turkey.

Last month, Italy’s Corriere della Sera newspaper reported that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had floated the idea of a so-called “European Commonwealth” to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his visit to Kiev in early April.

According to the paper’s sources, Johnson sees the bloc as “a new system of political, economic and military alliances – alternative to the European Union.”

West is yet to face the worst in confronting Russia – Moscow
US animosity is worse than during the Cold War, but West is hurting itself with anti-Russia sanctions, Kremlin spokesman insists

The US is taking hostile actions against Russia that are worse than what it did during the Cold War, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has determined. However, it is hurting itself in the process and will ultimately have to acknowledge Moscow’s legitimate interests, he said, during an interview with Russian media on Thursday.

“We are not even close to the culmination of the crisis,” Peskov told news agency RIA Novosti, explaining the economic damage stemming from West-Russia confrontation. “Or rather they have not. We are in a more stable state thanks to macroeconomic measures taken by the government.”

Peskov has assessed that the current amount of pressure against Russia is unprecedented. Nothing of the kind was done “even during the Cold War” or to any other nation on Earth he said. The US and its allies seek to “strangle” Russia with their restrictions, he added.


Expert comments on timing of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine
Both the military operation and the sanctions are going to last for a long time, Fyodor Lukyanov has said
The Russian military offensive in Ukraine is likely to last for a long time, as well as the “decoupling” of the Russian and Western economies, Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent expert on international relations, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, and the research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, said on Thursday.

In the interview with RT, Lukyanov said that, in his opinion, at the beginning of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine, both Moscow and the West probably had some “illusions” that the conflict could be settled diplomatically.

“Now we have this particular situation when military force only decides,” he said. Both Russia and Ukraine, he stressed, are now led by “a military logic” which suggests that any cessation of military action would give the other side a chance to regroup and prepare for further actions.

“So there is no chance for a political or diplomatic solution at this point and I am afraid that we will follow military activities for quite a long [time] ahead of us,” Lukyanov said.

In the expert’s opinion, Russia was not as well prepared for the attack as it should have been and, therefore, after its initial first gains, it had to withdraw forces from some territories which had already been taken. Now, Lukyanov said, the progress the Russian forces are making is slow but steady.

Lukyanov claimed that, aside from the declared goal of “liberation” of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, Russia has “other goals which have not been officially announced.” Fulfilling those goals, Russia is taking under its control other parts of Ukraine, Lukyanov said.

“Everything we hear from Russian officials, both in Moscow and on the field, gives us the feeling that the territories already taken by Russian army will never return back to Ukraine,” he claimed, adding that he doubts even Russian leaders know where the operation will end and what Ukraine will look like following the conflict.

At the same time, Lukyanov argued, “It doesn’t look very likely that anybody will recognize those gains.” Asked to comment on possible referendums on Russia-controlled territories, Lukyanov said that he doesn’t think referendums make much sense because, whatever the vote result is, it will be rejected by other sides.

“In this regard it would be important to see and to know the real will of people who live there but, under the current circumstances, I don’t see how to do it,” he said.

In light of Russia’s military progress in Ukraine, Western supporters of Ukraine have two options: To continue providing Kiev with arms but without guarantee that it could win over Moscow, or to seek some sort of armistice which “could give some period of peace.” For now, the “aggressive” approach seems to be prevailing, Lukyanov said.

ロシアと西側の経済の「デカップリング」と同様に、ウクライナにおけるロシアの軍事攻勢は長期に渡る可能性が高いと、著名な国際関係専門家で「Russia in Global Affairs」の編集長、バルダイ国際討論クラブの研究ディレクターであるフョードル・ルキャーノフ氏が2日に述べた。










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