ウクライナ戦争による経済悪化 エジプトそして米国に返ってくる: ずくなしの冷や水

2022年06月02日

ウクライナ戦争による経済悪化 エジプトそして米国に返ってくる

Egypt assesses impact of Ukraine-related crisis
The North-African nation says Russia-Ukraine conflict has cost the national economy $7 billion
Egypt’s economy has sustained losses of up to 130 billion Egyptian pounds ($7 billion) amid the Ukrainian crisis, according to the country’s Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, as quoted by TASS.

“The aftermath of the war has placed a huge financial burden on us and we have invested 130 billion pounds to cover rising prices for strategic goods,” Madbouly said on Sunday, pointing out that the indirect consequences of the events in Ukraine are estimated at another over $18 billion.

According to the PM, the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has sent prices for vital produce soaring, having posed enormous challenges to the Egyptian economy.

“In May 2021, the price of a barrel of oil was $67, now it has reached $112, while a ton of wheat cost $270 a year ago, now we pay for the same volumes based on a price of $435 per ton,” Madbouly explained.

“Previously, we had imported 42% of grain, while 31% of tourists were from Russia and Ukraine, and now we have to look for alternative markets.”

The PM also said that Egypt had managed to restore tourism after the Covid-19 pandemic and “achieve budget profitability of $5.8 billion ahead of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.”

He added that despite Covid-related crisis and turmoil in the movement of world trade, the nation saw an unprecedented increase in income from the Suez Canal.

Egypt’s unemployment rate dropped to 7.2% in January-March, down from 7.4% in the previous quarter, the state statistics agency CAPMAS said on Sunday.

The agency also reported that Egypt’s annual inflation rate surged to 14.9% in April, significantly higher than the previous month’s 12.1%.

In March, Egypt’s Central Bank raised its key interest rate for the first time since 2017, citing inflationary pressures triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which hiked oil prices to record highs.



US stocks suffer longest losing streak since the Great Depression
The latest decline leaves the Standard & Poor’s 500 down 20% from its peak, and the Dow has dropped another 600 points

US stocks were hammered again on Friday, pushing Wall Street into bear market status amid inflation and recession fears and leaving investors on their longest losing streak since the Great Depression by at least one key measure.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell as much as 2.3%, leaving it 21% below the all-time high that it reached in January and essentially ending a bull market run that began in March 2020. The S&P is considered the most accurate measure of US stock market performance, as it’s broader-based than the 30-member Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is made up entirely of blue-chip securities.

The Dow slid as much as 617 points, down 2% on the day and 16% year to date. The blue-chip index was on pace to cap a weekly decline of more than 4%, marking its eighth straight weekly drop and the longest such losing streak since 1932, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That year marked the Dow’s lowest point of the Great Depression.
・・・いろいろ書いてありますが、要するに米国経済は不況になりつつあり、米国株式はこの先下落するだろうということです。

ウクライナ戦争は、米国経済にとってマイナスになっています。マーケットの解説者のコメントの中にウクライナが出てきません。

今の苦境はコロナの影響が大きいとしても、中長期的にも問題があります。

経済制裁に対する対抗策としてドル離れが進みます。米国財務省証券が売れなくなる。ドルが安くなればインフレ要因。

民間航空機産業では、2社の独占に中国が割って入りました。ロシアも国産機を開発中。

中国は、外国製のPCを廃棄する指令を出しました。ハードとソフトの両面で米国製を使わなくなります。

携帯市場では、すでに中国が優位。5G通信分野でも中国の技術が先駆しています。

米国経済弱体化が、日本にどれほどの打撃を与えるかわかりませんが、道連れの可能性が高いです。


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 08:45| Comment(0) | ウクライナ
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