中国が米国のバブル、ゾンビ国家化に警戒 ロシアは米ドル資産を処分: ずくなしの冷や水

2020年07月24日

中国が米国のバブル、ゾンビ国家化に警戒 ロシアは米ドル資産を処分

SPUTNIK 04:00 GMT 18.07.2020
'China Minimised Economic Impact While US Risks Becoming Zombie Country,' Academic Says
Chinese exports and imports grew in June more than projected. According to the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, exports grew by 0.5% compared to the same period last year, while imports increased by 2.7%. These positive dynamics reflect that China is recovering from the crisis faster than expected.

This is the first time since the coronavirus outbreak when both China's exports and imports have started to grow. Most analysts expected that June would remain a month of recession: imports would drop by 10% and exports by 1.5%.

However, fiscal stimulus measures, as well as investments in infrastructure and real estate, yielded quick results.

Demand for imported rolled steel reached its peak for the last 33 months – it grew by 9.6%. Imports of crude oil also reached maximum values, climbing 9.9%. Here the demand was also spurred by Chinese oil refiners, who sought to fill their storage facilities while the oil price was low.

As a result, imports from some countries into the PRC increased at a double-digit rate. For example, June imports from the US to China increased by 11.3%, although in May this figure was in the negative zone.

Despite the pessimistic statements of some US politicians regarding the trade agreement, Chinese companies tried their best to fulfil the terms of the deal between the two countries that was concluded in January.

On the one hand, the easing of restrictive measures in response to the epidemic abroad contributed to the growth of exports. Many countries have begun to gradually open up their economies and resume business activities.

At the same time, increasing global demand for protective masks, gloves and other medical products and technological equipment also contributed to the increase in Chinese exports.

According to Chinese statistics, China's exports of medicines and pharmaceuticals increased by 23.6% in the second quarter. The sales of medical equipment to other countries soared by 46.4%.

China has undertaken various economic support measures. The authorities called on commercial banks to provide loans to support small businesses by at least 1 trillion yuan at low interest rates.

The People's Bank of China will buy back up to 400 billion yuan of these loans from commercial banks for one year. This will help commercial banks to cope with liquidity shortages.

Furthermore, 3.6 trillion yuan will be invested in the real sector, including in digital infrastructure, through the issuance of special government bonds as well as local government special-purpose bonds.

Finally, through various fiscal exemptions, as well as increasing the budget deficit to 3.6% of GDP, companies will attain an additional 3.3 trillion yuan of liquidity, which can also be used to restore business activities.

On the whole, China successfully coped with the first wave of the epidemic and was able to minimise economic losses, Jia Jinjing, assistant dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at the Renmin University of China, told Sputnik.

“China has effectively coped with the first wave of the epidemic now. It has managed to minimise the impact on the economy. Judging by domestic and foreign demand, we see that the measures are yielding results. However, the epidemiological situation remains uncertain, especially in some countries, including the US. Where the epidemic is likely to spread, the situation is very difficult to predict,” he said.

Despite the fact that China may have been able to minimise the impact of the epidemic for itself, due to China's involvement in the global value chain, the country is highly dependent on the situation in the world economy. At the same time, the US, as the expert notes, remains the main hidden threat to the global economy and finance.

“In terms of the financial or macro-level, the greatest latent risk comes from the US. The US has adopted a financial support programme that ends this month. It has not yet been announced what the next steps will be. But there are serious financial risks in the current situation that come from the US. In June, US federal revenues accounted for only one-fifth of expenditures. This means that the US will face problems servicing its own debt in the future. As debt accumulates, the US is becoming a zombie country, and this is a real danger for the global economy,” Jia Jinjing stressed.

The US has allocated $2.3 trillion to fight the current crisis, a record package of incentives. However, these anti-crisis measures are mainly limited to direct financial stimulation of the economy.

At the beginning of March, the Fed lowered the rates to zero and started implementing a policy of quantitative easing – this method was already practised during the 2008 crisis.

The quantitative easing – based on the lowest interest rates possible – is designed to sharply increase lending and, consequently, business activity and output growth. In reality, however, it turned out that cheap credit has led only to the expansion of the financial sector and speculative growth in the securities market.

From 2009 to 2019, the S&P 500 index grew by 370%. During the same period, GDP grew by less than 50%. The real sector, which supposedly provides most of the employment in most countries, was left behind, as evidenced by the accumulated structural problems in the American economy and society, such as high unemployment and growing social inequality.

China has taken into account the mistakes of the past, so the current measures taken by the Chinese authorities are aimed at maintaining the real sector. The practice has shown that huge financial incentives lead to economic imbalances and bubbles.

In fact, China's campaign against leverage, not completed so far, is precisely aimed at fighting the consequences of pumping the economy with financial doping in 2008.

But in today's situation countries can only jointly stabilise the global financial system and come out of the crisis caused by the pandemic with the least losses.

RT2020/7/19
Russia adds $4.4 BILLION to forex reserves in just ONE WEEK
Russian gold and foreign currency holdings have increased to a total of $574.2 billion, according to the latest data released by the country’s central bank.

The international funds grew by $4.4 billion, or about 0.8 percent, in just one week (July 3-10). The regulator noted that the growth was driven by “positive revaluation.”

Statistics showed that since January 1 Russia boosted forex reserves by $20 billion. They were up by 18.3 percent last year.

The state's international reserves are highly liquid foreign assets comprising stocks of monetary gold, foreign currencies and Special Drawing Right (SDR) assets, which are at the disposal of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and the government. The current level of holdings is higher than the target of $500 billion set by the CBR several years ago.

Russia has been boosting the reserves for four years running. Last year, growth totaled nearly $86 billion, while 2018 and 2017 saw increases of around $33 billion and $55 billion respectively.

The country has been also reshaping its international holdings, cutting the share of the US dollar in favor of other currencies and gold. Last year, the CBR reported that the greenback share fell from 43.7 percent to 23.6 percent in 12 months from March 2018.

ロシアが米ドルの処分を加速しています。金を増やしています。



中国株式も回復が早い。


mko@trappedsoldier氏の2020/7/21のツイート
みずほ総合研究所の研究部門のチーフエコノミスト、長谷川克之氏は、中国の2020年第2四半期のGDPの3.2%成長は世界経済にとって重要であると述べた。コロナ後の、世界経済回復を牽引するのは、間違いなく中国経済。

相場の動きについては、同報メールで最小限の範囲に触れるだけにしています。相場は大変難しいです。ただ、このところユーロドル、豪ドルが堅調推移でしたが、7/21は特に豪ドルが上げています。7/21は欧州株も上げていますが、ちょっと早い感じもします。

※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2020/7/21のツイート
米国はリーマン危機を3千兆円の税金で、秘密裡に銀行・ヘッジファンドを救済。現在のバブルはその数倍。それがはじけかかっている。シェール石油産業倒産、金融バブル爆発の恐怖に震え上るトランプ。ドルを捨てろと号令を発してきたプーチン。ドル石油支配体制の終わり。アメリカの錯乱と凋落の原因。

※ 熊猫さんパンダの顔ブタの顔イヌの顔クマの顔ネズミの顔@xiongmao53氏の2020/7/21のツイート
私的には、現在の米国の対中冷戦は、既に中国を取り込むことを諦めることによって、結果的に世界覇権を放棄し、中国が大きな役割を果たすであろう多極世界から孤立し、自分たちだけの一極だけを護持するという結果にしかならないと思います。実際、国際機関からの米国の脱退が続いています。 twitter.com/trappedsoldier…

2020/7/24、米国市場が始まって間もなく、金価格がこの10年来の最高値を付けています。


今日は読者と少し意見交換しましたが、よりもよってその晩に最高根更新です。
The price of gold at the Comex exchange has increased by 0.6% compared to the previous session's close, reaching $ 1,904 per troy ounce.
The last time the price of gold was above $1,900 per troy ounce was in September 2011.
金価格が上がるであろうとの見通しは、何度も取り上げてきました。ロシアや東欧の国が金を買い増したリ、英国から自国に輸送したりしているので、在庫積み増し路線。当然金価格は上がります。

海外情報は、こんな経済関係でも役に立つ情報が多いのです。特に自国の威信を高めようとカネと力を投入してニュースを流している国の情報は確かです。

為替の見通しについても年初来何度か触れました。ただ方向性は確かでも何時動き出すかはわからない。ポジションをとっても1年そのままかもしれませんしね。一時的に反対方向に振れることもありますし。どうぞ、私の苦しい胸の内をお察しください。

えっ、そんなことはいいからユーロの値上がりはどうなんだ、まだ続くのか? それに金もさらに値上がりか? それだけ答えろ!

そんなにせっかちに・・・損しても知りませんよ。私は、ユーロのFXポジションを少し持っています。金については、現物を買うほどのカネもありませんので持っていませんが、もしカネがたくさんあれば買うでしょうね。少なくともドル暴落時にはもっと上がるはずです。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 23:16| Comment(0) | 国際・政治
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