イラク混乱でどうなる 2: ずくなしの冷や水

2019年12月07日

イラク混乱でどうなる 2

イラクの首相が辞任表明。マフディ指名に際しても議会勢力の間で人選が難航しました。誰がやっても政治運営が難しいと予想されていました。辞任事由となった今回の暴動の背景には、外国勢力がいます。
ペンスは、マフディとの電話で "either Iraq should be the US ally and leave Iran alone or expect widespread chaos in the country" とイラク国内で混乱が強まると脅迫しています。
特に米国との対峙姿勢を打ち出したことが、イラク国内の少なからざる、利権を持つ親米勢力を強く刺激したのかもしれません。
イラクの前途は多難です。国内の暴動で400人も死んだのはセキュリティフォースの鎮圧策だけが原因ではないはず。

米国が威嚇したとおりになっています。
mko
@trappedsoldier

54m
イラク:謎のグループが火炎瓶を活動家に向かって投げ、銃を撃った。シナク橋に治安部隊はいない。これが謎のグループの写真だ。

イラクの暴動は、外国の金や武器・訓練と関連するこの連中によって起こされている。

※ 会員限定有料記事 毎日新聞2019年12月7日 10時51分(最終更新 12月7日 14時47分)
反政府デモ隊に発砲、15人死亡 バグダッド中心部
 イラクの首都バグダッド中心部の反政府デモ隊が集まる広場で6日、何者かが車両から実弾を発砲した。AP通信によると、警官2人を含む15人が死亡し約60人が負傷。バグダッドの別の広場では5日にもデモ隊が何者かに刺されて13人が負傷した。

FARSNEWS2019/12/1
Iraq Parliament Approves PM's Resignation
TEHRAN (FNA)- Iraqi legislators approved Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi's resignation during a parliament session held in capital Baghdad amid weeks of deadly anti-government protests in the country.

Referring to Article 76 of the country's constitution, Speaker Mohammad al-Halbusi on Sunday said President Barham Saleh will now ask the largest political bloc in parliament to nominate the next prime minister, Al-Jazeera reported.

On Friday, an embattled Abdul Mahdi formally submitted his offer to step down following the killing of more than 50 demonstrators by the security forces in Baghdad and Iraq's mainly Shia Southern cities of Nasiriya and Najaf.

The statement by Abdul Mahdi, who assumed office a little over a year ago, came shortly after Iraq's top Shia leader, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, condemned the use of lethal force against the protesters and called for a new government.

A cabinet meeting on Saturday had approved the statement, which also suggested the resignation of key members of the Iraqi government, including Abdul Mahdis' chief of staff.

Legal experts say Abdul Mahdi's government will take on a caretaker role for 30 days or until the largest bloc in parliament agrees on a new candidate to replace him.

But with the question as to who forms the largest political bloc in parliament remaining unanswered, that decision may take longer to reach.

Bylaws of the Council of Ministers stipulate that the prime minister should send his resignation to the president. If he does so, the president would take over until the largest bloc in parliament nominates an alternative, which according to article 81 of Iraq's constitution, should be within two weeks.

But in a pre-recorded speech on Saturday, Abdul Mahdi did not mention the president. Instead, he stated that acting on the advice of Iraq's chief Supreme Court judge, he would submit his resignation to parliament.

"The perspective I received from the chief of the federal supreme court is that the resignation should be submitted to those who voted the government in," he noted, calling on the parliament to select an alternative prime minister to lead the country.

Earlier on Sunday, Iraqi member of parliament Nassim Abdullah told Al-Jazeera that parliamentarians were expected to vote on Abdul Mahdi's resignation, adding that "the vote will be in favour of him stepping down".

Another member of parliament, Mohammad al-Daraji, had told Al-Jazeera that "no vote will be taking place during Sunday's session, because the constitution does not require a vote of no-confidence".

But according to legal experts in Iraq, whether or not a vote took place in parliament, Abdul Mahdi's resignation was already in effect.

"The Iraqi constitution does not stipulate that the prime minister's resignation is pending a parliamentary vote or the president's acceptance," legal expert Tareq Harb told Al-Jazeera.

Ahmed al-Inazi, a legal expert at the Iraqi legal development centre agreed, adding, "Abdul Mahdi's resignation does not need approval from parliament."

"Since the premier offered to resign, legally the prime minister and his whole government have stepped down, a step that does not need a parliamentary vote," he said.

According to both the legal experts, Abdul Mahdi's government has taken on a caretaker role, which will only address urgent issues until a new government is sworn in.

"Based on the constitution, the largest political blocs and alliances will have 15 days to nominate a candidate which the president will then assign to form a new government within 30 days," Harb told Al-Jazeera.

"This new cabinet will then be voted on by parliament which needs an absolute majority to be voted in," he added.

"A caretaker government [under Abdul Mahdi's leadership] will continue until the political blocs select a new prime minister," he said, adding that discussions around who will replace Abdul Mahdi are expected to start during Sunday's parliamentary session.

While the largest political bloc will have the right to decide on Abdul Mahdi's replacement, Iraqi parliamentarians and legal experts expect a "political tug of war" to unfold as parliamentary blocs try to forge alliances amongst each other.

"There will be an ongoing political tug of war and manoeuvring like what we saw following the elections in May last year," Harb told Al-Jazeera, adding that negotiations may leave Abdul Mahdi's government in a caretaker role for a longer time period than expected.

"The largest political blocs, Fatah and Sairoon, may no longer be the decision-makers this time around," he said.

Elections in May 2018 ended without a single bloc winning a majority of seats to select a new prime minister.

To avoid a political crisis, parliament's two main political blocs - Sairoon, led by Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Fatah bloc led by Hadi al-Amiri - eventually forged an alliance, nominating Abdul Mahdi as prime minister.

Although Abdul Mahdi's statement offering to quit was welcomed by the protesters in Baghdad's Tahrir Square, they said they will continue to demonstrate until they see a complete overhaul of the country's political situation.

"The prime minister's resignation is only a dot in the ocean of our demands," stated Dania, a 20-year-old IT student at Nahrayn Univeristy, who has been protesting in Baghdad's Tahrir Square since early October.

"We won't go back home until the PM's resignation triggers the parliament to be dissolved and early elections are held so that all the political parties and militias currently in power could be removed," she added.

At least 400 people have been killed since anti-government protests gripped Baghdad and Iraq's mainly Shia South in early October over the lack of basic services, employment opportunities, and corruption across the ranks of the political elite.

According to Haddad, unless protesters see a real change, protests will continue.

"Public sentiment has reached a point where it cannot be placated by piecemeal or cosmetic changes," said Haddad.

"If all that the political class can offer is a rearranged constellation of the same faces, there will be more public anger and a possible escalation of protests," he added.

But since the protests began, parliament has been deeply divided with Sadr going back and forth on his position to back the protesters, while Fatah, the second largest bloc in parliament, has backed the government.

"It is unclear how a new government will be formed," said Fanar al-Haddad, research fellow at the Middle East Institute at the University of Singapore.

"Will another consensus government emerge?" he asked, noting, "Or can a group or constellation of political actors form a majority government and an opposition? All this remains to be seen."

FARSNEWS2019/11/27
Analyst: US Pressuring Iraq to Cut Ties with Iran, Resistance Front
TEHRAN (FNA)- The US is exerting much pressure on Baghdad to severe relations with Iran and the resistance front, a prominent Iraqi analyst said.

Sabah al-Akili told the Arabic-language al-Ma'aloumeh news website on Wednesday that the US administration has conveyed its message to the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi, the Iraqi prime minister.

"The US is bargaining with Iraq to warn it that either Iraq should be the US ally and leave Iran alone or expect widespread chaos in the country," he added.

Al-Akili also said that Washington has also exerted pressure on Baghdad to dissolve Hashd al-Shaabi (popular forces) and distance from the resistance front.

An Arab paper reported on Monday that US Vice-President Mike Pence could not accomplish his mission in Baghdad to coax the Iraqi officials into taking a hostile position towards Tehran after Baghdad officials rejected meeting him.

The Arabic-language al-Akhbar newspaper referred to the last Saturday surprise visit by Pence to Iraq, noting that none of the Iraqi government officials, including Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, met with him.

Abdul Mahdi's office announced in a statement that he had a phone conversation with Pence during which the two sides conferred on the latest developments in Iraq, but there was no meeting between the two sides.

The paper said the Iraqi officials' rejection of a meeting with Pence displays the darkening relations between Washington and Baghdad as the US witnesses Iraq's tendency towards Iran.

Iraqi officials told al-Akhbar that Pence has during the phone conversation persuaded Abdul Mahdi to take distance from Tehran and decrease ties with Iran.

Meantime, another Iraqi official said that the distance between Iraq and the US has never set such a record high, adding that differences between them are increasing day by day.

Pence made an unannounced trip to Iraq on Saturday, the highest-level American trip since President Donald Trump ordered a pullback of US forces in Syria two months ago.

Flying in a C-17 military cargo aircraft, Pence landed in Irbil, capital of Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdish region, to meet with Iraqi Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani.

Pence spoke by phone with Abdul Mahdi after the Iraqi leader declined an invitation to meet with Pence at a US airbase when security concerns prevented Pence from traveling into Baghdad.






※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2019/11/29のツイート
サウジのメディアを引用し、そのまま反イランプロパガンダを展開する安田純平。米・イスラエル・サウジが、この数十年間イラクに対して何をしてきたか! 安田の同情と共感は、米国とISISに向けられている?

※ 安田純平@YASUDAjumpei氏の2019/11/28のツイート
イラクが大変なことになっている。イスラム教シーア派の聖地ナジャフのイラン領事館にデモ隊が火を放ったと。
汚職や公共サービスの貧弱ぶり、イランの影響増大に対する10月からの抗議デモですでに少なくとも350人の死者が出ている。 https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/
・・・この方の報じる情報を見ていると捕らえられながらも無事に帰還できた背景がわかるような気がします。

※ 寺澤有 @Yu_TERASAWA氏の2019/7/9のツイート
寺澤有さんが志葉玲をリツイートしました
「共闘を模索したい」ってさあ。問題の記者会見からフリーランスは排除されているのに、どうやったらできるの? しかも、排除している当人が、あなたの言う「良心的な組織ジャーナリスト」でしょうに。今、「志葉玲の日和見主義にはあきれる」というのがたくさん来ているから、きいているわけ。
・・・日和見主義とされている方の書かれるものは、いつも幻滅させられます。日本の独立ジャーナリスト、情報源としてフォローすべき人は極めて少ない。

※ IWN@A7_Mirza氏の午後5:09 ・ 2019年11月29日のツイート
Increasing #US Pressure on #Iraq
Al-Akili: “US government relayed the message they are not happy with PM Abdul-Mahdi government.”
US is bargaining with Iraq, it is either Iraq should stay US ally and forget about #Iran or should expect vast chaos...

※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2019/11/29のツイート・
とうとうイラク首相アブドルマフディが、米国の圧力に折れた…。辞表を議会に提出。「米軍叩き出し努力、イラン・中国接近」への罰?
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 18:20| Comment(0) | 国際・政治
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