週明け石油価格は10%強上げて始まった: ずくなしの冷や水

2019年09月16日

週明け石油価格は10%強上げて始まった

2019/9/16朝の海外市場は、パニックは見せていません。
原油先物は10%を超える上昇
ブレント原油先物 取引 - 11月 2019  68.10 +7.95 +13.22%
原油(WTI原油先物) 現在値 61.37 (19/09/15 19:59 EST)
前日比 +6.52 (+11.89%)
日経225先物 (F) 21,712.5 -170.0 -0.78%

今回のイエメンによるサウジの石油施設攻撃は、予想を大きく超えるものでした。
@ イエメン国境から1000km近く距離がある施設が正確に攻撃されています。そしてドローンはイエメンに帰ったとされています。(サウジはイエメンの残骸を示していません)
サウジの防空網をすり抜けており、ドローンの性能、操縦技術共に驚嘆に値します。
A 攻撃地点が遠くにあるため、イラクやイランの領内から発射されたのではないかとの見方もありますが、両国ともにその憶測を否定しています。イラクやイランに運び込んで発射するには時間もかかりますし、途中で人目に付くリスクもありますからそれはまずやらない。
B サウジは48時間で復旧させるようなことを述べていますが、施設の炎上などの様子からみればそれは到底無理。障害は長く続くでしょう。プラントの建設会社としてyokokawaの名が言及されています。
C サウジのMbSがトランプと電話会談をしています。日常的に連絡を取っているのでしょうが、サウジは大打撃を受けました。米英仏から武器を入れ、人的な支援も得て民生施設を攻撃してきました。今回は石油施設ですが、王族の居住地域なども確実に攻撃できる力を示したことになります。
D 世界の石油市場への影響は、まだ見定めることは困難な状況です。サウジの在庫、米国の備蓄があると強調されていますので、逆に言えば石油価格の高騰が米国経済に与える悪影響が関心の的です。

今週末、ブレント原油価格1バレル80ドルを試す可能性があるとの見方が出てます。

※ Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
Attacks in Saudi Arabia are a recipe for $100 Oil & global recession. Saudi's production is from single entity: Saudi Aramco. They move and transport a large fraction of the production through relatively small areas. Makes it extremely vulnerable to attack https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/09/14/a-recipe-for-100-oil/?source=bloomberg

PressTV 2019/9/15
Attacks on Saudi oil make waivers on Iran necessary: Experts
Experts say critical oil supplies lost due to Yemeni attacks on Saudi Arabia’s production plants can only be compensated if the United States eases its sanctions on sale of crude by Iran.

Sandy Fielden, an analyst at Morningstar, a global financial services firm based in the US, said on Saturday that the current oil stocks in Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil exporter in the world, would not suffice to compensate for a loss of around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) that could be caused by attacks earlier in the day targeting the kingdom’s vital oil facilities located east of the country.

The attacks "resulted in a temporary suspension of production at Abqaiq and Khurais plants," Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the energy minister said in a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency. It led to the interruption of an estimated 5.7 million barrels of crude, or about 50 percent of total production, he added.

Fielden said the disruptions could cause a real jump in the global oil prices, adding that the US, a main player in the oil market and an ally of the Saudis, would have no option but to allow Iran to resume its crude exports after months of a halt that has been caused by Washington's unilateral bans.

“By all accounts the Iranians have tankers full of storage ready to go,” he said, adding, “The obvious short-term fix would be waivers on Iran sanctions.”

Yemen’s ruling Houthi Ansarullah movement said on Saturday that its drones had successfully attacked two oil plants in Abqaiq, the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

The Houthis said the attacks were a firm response to Saudi Arabia’s relentless bombardment of Yemen, where tens of thousands of civilians have been killed since Riyadh launched its illegal military campaign four years ago.

James Krane, Middle East energy specialist at Rice University’s Baker Institute, suggested that supplies from a country like Iran would be the best option to replace the lost Saudi production as most of the Kingdom’s exports normally go to countries in Asia that are closer to Iran than any other major oil producer.

“For the United States, the main threat is in the price of oil,” said Krane, adding, “Asian countries are more at immediate risk because they are the big importers from Saudi Arabia, with 80% of Saudi exports going to East Asia.”

Riyadh defenseless against Yemeni strikes

Analysts said Yemeni attacks on Saudi oil installations showed that Riyadh, which pumps just below 10 million bpd of oil into the global market, is effectively defenseless in the face of strikes from its impoverished neighbor.

Fielden said Washington would also find it impossible to try to solve the crisis on its own by sending tankers full of oil to Saudi customers in East Asia.

“It takes 19-20 days to ship Ras Tanura (Saudi) to Singapore, but 54 days from Houston to Singapore. So US ‘relief’ will take time,” he said.

However, US officials said right after the attack that they would try to ensure a smooth supply of oil to the global markets despite the attacks in Abqaiq.

White House spokesman Judd Deere said in a statement that Washington was committed to well-supplied oil markets while adding that US President Donald Trump had held a phone conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman following the Saturday attacks.

Oil could rise $10 per barrel

Oil analysts and traders say that the impact of the attack on crude prices could be double digit and the commodity’s price could jump as much as $10 per barrel.

“This is a big deal,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “Fearing the worst, I expect that the market will open up $5 to $10 per barrel on Sunday evening. This is 12 to 25 cents per gallon for gasoline.”

Kevin Book, the head of research at Clearview Energy, said the price impact will depend on the repair time which can take weeks to months. “Our baseline assumptions, which incorporate public assessments of strategic petroleum reserve capacity and OPEC spare capacity, imply a net shortfall of ~1 MM bbl/d, or at least a ~$6/bbl premium to the ~$60 Brent close... Exclusive of this supply offset, and assuming a three-week shutdown, our models imply ~$10/bbl of upside.”

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 0.4% lower at $54.85 on Friday, and Brent crude futures traded 0.2% lower at $60.25 per barrel.

IEA: No real concerns

The International Energy Agency (IEA) also said that in the short term was there were no real concerns about supplies to the markets.

“For now, markets are well supplied with ample commercial stocks,” it said, adding, “The IEA is monitoring the situation in Saudi Arabia closely. We are in contact with Saudi authorities as well as major producer and consumer nations.”

The United Arab Emirates, a close ally of Saudi Arabia and a major oil producer, said it would support measures adopted by the kingdom to safeguard its security following Saturday attacks.


FARSNEWS2019/9/15
Baghdad Denies Iraqi Territory Used to Hit Saudi Oil Facilities
TEHRAN (FNA)- Iraq denied on Sunday that its territory had been used to carry out attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, referring to the Saturday incident that knocked out more than half the Kingdom’s output.

A Baghdad government statement denied “media reports that [Iraqi] territory was used to attack Saudi oil installations using drones”.

According to a statement from the Iraqi Prime Minister's press-service, the constitution of Iraq does not allow the use of its territory for aggressive actions towards its neighbours.

Drones attacked Saudi Arabia's oil facilities on Saturday, causing major fires and disrupting oil production.

Yemen's Ansarullah movement claimed responsibility for the operation but the United States has blamed Iran for the incident. Tehran has rejected the allegations.

Following the strikes, US President Donald Trump, a stalwart supporter of the Riyadh-led war on Yemen, spoke on the phone with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS), who has been leading the military campaign in his capacity as the Saudi defense chief.

Trump offered Washington’s support for what he called “Saudi Arabia’s self defense”, stating that the attacks on Saudi oil facilities had a negative impact on the US and global economies.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also took to Twitter to put the blame on Iran, claiming, “Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia” and that “there is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen”.

“The United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression,” he added.

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Seyed Abbas Mousavi blasted Pompeo for his big lies against Tehran, and categorically rejected his allegations about Iran's involvement in Yemeni attacks on Saudi Arabia.

"Such allegations and blind and fruitless remarks are meaningless and not understood in diplomatic framework," he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also responded to Pompeo’s claim, stressing that the American diplomat is now resorting to a campaign of “max deceit” against Tehran after the administration he serves failed to achieve the desired results from its anti-Iran “maximum pressure” policy − which has seen Washington impose the toughest of economic sanctions against the Iranian nation.

“US & its clients are stuck in Yemen because of illusion that weapon superiority will lead to military victory,” Zarif wrote on Twitter.

Saudi Arabia and a number of its regional allies launched a devastating campaign against Yemen in March 2015, with the aim of bringing the government of former Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi back to power and crushing the Ansarullah movement.

Despite Riyadh's claims that it is bombing the positions of the Ansarullah fighters, Saudi bombers are flattening residential areas and civilian infrastructures. Weddings, funerals, schools and hospitals, as well as water and electricity plants, have been targeted, killing 20,000 civilians, including women and children, and wounding hundreds of thousands.

France, the United States, the United Kingdom and some other Western countries have faced criticisms over arms sales to the Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose aggression against Yemen has affected 28 million people and caused what the United Nations calls “one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world". According to the world body, Yemen is suffering from the most severe famine in more than 100 years.

A UN panel has compiled a detailed report of civilian casualties caused by the Saudi military and its allies during their war against Yemen, saying the Riyadh-led coalition has used precision-guided munitions in its raids on civilian targets.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 23:57| Comment(0) | 国際・政治
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