オマーン湾のタンカー攻撃事件で戦争が始まるか: ずくなしの冷や水

2019年06月15日

オマーン湾のタンカー攻撃事件で戦争が始まるか

PRESSTV2019/6/14
Trump says wants Iran ‘back at the table’ after tanker attacks




RT2019/6/14
Cui bono? Iran has ‘no reason’ to torpedo oil tankers in Gulf of Oman & ‘go to war’
Despite accusations from Washington, Iran has no motive for instigating the attack on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, analysts told RT, stressing that the suspicious incident has harmed, rather than helped, Tehran.

Iran rescued 44 sailors from two tankers, ‘Front Altair’ and ‘Kokuka Courageous,’ after the vessels came under attack on Thursday. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was quick to pin the blame for the incident on Iran, claiming that the Islamic Republic was “lashing out” in frustration over Washington’s draconian sanctions regime.

Analysts who spoke with RT, however, questioned Pompeo’s line of reasoning.
‘Why would Iran do it?’

Tehran has nothing to gain from attacking the oil tankers, defense analyst and retired Lt. General Amjad Shoaib said.

“Why would Iran do it? They have no reason to go to war and they have no reason to escalate the situation,” he stressed.

Tehran has adamantly denied any involvement. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif described the incident as highly suspicious, adding that Washington’s evidence-free accusations are designed to “sabotage” Iran’s diplomatic efforts.

Experts noted the strange timing of the attack, which came as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was meeting with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, marking the first time in 40 years that a Japanese leader had visited Tehran. Coincidentally, one of the oil tankers targeted in the attack was Japanese-owned.

The Japanese firm, Kokuka Sangyo Co, said on Friday that its tanker had been attacked by two “flying objects” but that there was no damage to the ship’s cargo of methanol.

Kourosh Shamlou, an attorney and Middle East specialist, told RT that it would be completely illogical for Iran to quite literally torpedo such a historic summit, especially since doing so would play into the hands of Washington’s anti-Iran hawks.

“I’m an attorney. You have to know for whom a crime is beneficial. We can see the geopolitical situation of Iran and the US in the Persian Gulf. We can say that the Iranians are not going to torpedo a ship that will lead to the Americans attacking them. It’s going to give the Americans an excuse to attack Iran. So it cannot be the Iranians.”

In fact, the incident has already had negative economic consequences for Iran, Hamed Mousavi, professor of political science at the University of Tehran and visiting professor at Carleton University, noted to RT.

“Iran’s currency lost five percent of its value today just because of talk of escalating tensions as well as perhaps the possibility of war. I think right now Iran wants to de-escalate the situation with the United States,” said Mousavi.
‘Mainstream conspiracy theory’

It’s not surprising that media outlets are dutifully relaying Pompeo’s accusations against Iran without questioning his logic – or asking for evidence, observed political analyst Shabbir Razvi.

“As soon as something happens in the Gulf region, particularly over the last few months in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, it’s immediately blamed on Iran,” he said, describing the phenomenon as a “mainstream conspiracy theory” being pushed by Washington and uncritical media.

Razvi stressed that without evidence, it would be irresponsible of Washington – or anyone else – to put forward theories about who was responsible for the attack. However, there’s at least one country that has a documented history of fabricating scenarios to justify military action, Shamlou noted.

“All of a sudden, an accident happens, and [the United States] starts saying ‘it’s the Vietnamese, it’s the Iraqis, it’s the Iranians.’ And then they have a legitimate cause for their people to attack.”

RT2019/6/13
Gulf of Oman tankers incident: An invitation to war?
Thursday’s Gulf of Oman tanker explosions may be exploited to trigger the war between US and Iran, an analyst told RT, adding that the links of Japan and Oman to the incident were no coincidence.

Two oil tankers were rocked by powerful blasts not far from Oman’s shores on Thursday. Little is known about the incident so far, but some reports insist that one of vessels was hit by a torpedo.
“A torpedo does make sense,” Alessandro Bruno of Gulf State Analytics said. “Some torpedoes can be launched by airplanes at a distance, as well as by submarines. Besides, if the tankers had been attacked from above the sea level –by boats– there would’ve been witnesses,” he suggested, but apparently there aren’t any.

Washington accused Iran of the attack, although it didn't provide any proof. Bruno believes “a number of people could be interested in it, and for a number of reasons.”

The obvious answer is Saudi Arabia and the US or the Iranian opposition group, Mojahedin-e Khalq, which sabotages Iranian government interests and facilities for the past few years.

The tanker explosions “look like a technique that Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton would exploit to cause trouble in Iran and trigger a conflict,” the analyst said, but Donald Trump “might not be prepared to take a dangerous line” as his hawks are pushing for.

Donald Trump has been insisting that a new accord –which would also incorporate Tehran’s ballistic missile developments– must be signed. But Iran bluntly refuses to get involved in any negotiations, despite the Americans pressuring it, by sending warships to the Persian Gulf and by tightening sanctions.

Another significant fact that shouldn’t be downplayed is that the provocation occurred on the same day that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was visiting Iran, on a first such high-level trip since 1979.

“Japan is one of the countries that has suffered the most from Trump’s sanctions against Iran because it was one of the biggest buyers of Iranian oil,” therefore improved relations between Washington and Tehran are among Tokyo’s core interests. Besides “the two tankers were, apparently, connected to Japan,” he added.

The tankers’ blasts occurring off Oman’s shores may not be a coincidence either. “This country is independent of the crisis [in the Persian Gulf]. Oman has maintained very good relations with Qatar and also has good relations with Iran,” which were both made pariahs by Saudi Arabia and other Arab states. Bruno suggested that both Oman and Japan are interested in US and Iran making a deal and were ready to mediate it.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 10:13| Comment(0) | 国際・政治
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