ポーランドは狂ってきている 2

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 22:49| Comment(1) | ウクライナ


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 22:38| Comment(0) | 社会・経済


Snowden gets Russian citizenship
The whistleblower fled the US after leaking top-secret documents, almost a decade ago

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 22:20| Comment(0) | 国際・政治


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 21:37| Comment(0) | 国際・政治


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 20:59| Comment(0) | 国際・政治


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 20:24| Comment(0) | 国際・政治



Germany suspects ‘targeted attack’ on Russian gas pipeline – media
Berlin suspects the leak that caused Nord Stream to lose pressure may not be a coincidence

While the loss of pressure in three natural gas pipelines between Russia and Germany is still officially being investigated, Berlin is reportedly no longer convinced it was a coincidence, and suspects a “targeted attack” on behalf of either Ukraine or Russia, the newspaper Tagesspiegel reported on Monday evening.

Pressure in one of the Nord Stream 2 lines dropped sharply overnight, followed by the same happening to both Nord Stream 1 pipes on Monday afternoon. Denmark announced that a gas leak was spotted off the coast of Bornholm island in the Baltic Sea and closed the area for maritime traffic, but could not confirm if this was what caused the pressure loss.

According to Tagesspiegel, the German government and agencies investigating the incident “can’t imagine a scenario that isn't a targeted attack,” according to an anonymous source familiar with their assessments. “Everything speaks against a coincidence.”

The outlet explained that a deliberate attack on the bottom of the sea has to involve special forces, navy divers or a submarine. Berlin is reportedly examining two possible scenarios. In the first, Ukraine or “Ukraine-affiliated forces” could be behind the attack. The second option is that Russia did it as a “false flag,” to make Ukraine look bad and drive the EU energy prices even higher.

With Nord Stream offline since late August, Russian gas can only be delivered to Germany and central Europe via the older pipelines going through Poland and Ukraine, Tagesspiegel noted.

“We are in the process of clarifying the situation here,” a spokeswoman for the federal ministry of economics told the outlet. “We don't currently know what caused the pressure drop.”

Nord Stream 1 was built in 2011. Construction on Nord Stream 2 began in 2018, and took much longer due to political pressure and economic sanctions from the US. NS2 was finished and pressurized by September 2021. However, two days prior to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, the German government put its certification on indefinite hold, and has categorically refused any suggestion from Moscow – or its own people – to unblock the pipeline.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 20:06| Comment(0) | 国際・政治


Eurozone recession warning issued
The economic downturn across the 19-nation bloc has deepened, says S&P Global
The Eurozone’s economic downturn deepened in September, with business activity contracting for a third consecutive month, a new survey by S&P Global showed.

The report found that manufacturers across the 19-country union were hit hard by skyrocketing energy costs, with the purchasing managers index (PMI) sinking to its lowest level since 2013. The PMI, which is seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, fell from 48.9 in August to 48.2 in September.

Surging energy prices and the rising cost of living are “not only hitting demand but also limiting manufacturing production and service-sector activity in some cases,” S&P Global economist Chris Williamson said in a statement seen by Bloomberg.

“A Eurozone recession is on the cards,” Williamson warned, noting “Germany is facing the toughest conditions, with the economy deteriorating at a rate not seen outside of the pandemic since the global financial crisis.”

Overall demand in the Eurozone plunged to its lowest mark since November 2020, when the continent was in the grips of the second wave of the Covid pandemic. The business expectations index also declined, slipping to 53.8 from last month’s 56.6, its lowest reading since May 2020.

S&P Global expects the euro area’s economy to shrink by 0.1% in the third quarter.



"ユーロ圏の景気後退は目前だ "とウィリアムソン氏は警告し、"ドイツは最も厳しい状況に直面しており、世界金融危機以来、パンデミック以外では見られなかった速度で経済が悪化している "と指摘した。



Worst bond market crash in over 70 years coming – Bloomberg
The central banks’ aggressive interest rate hikes could cause a heavy selloff, strategists reportedly warn
Global government bonds are on course for their worst performance since 1949 as losses mount in the face of aggressive central banks, Bloomberg reported over the weekend citing Bank of America projections.

According to the report, the escalating losses reflect how far the US Federal Reserve and other central banks have shifted away from the monetary policies of the Covid pandemic, when they held rates near zero to keep their economies going. The reversal has hit everything from stock prices to oil as investors brace for an economic slowdown.

On Friday, the UK’s five-year bonds plummeted by the most since 1992 after the government rolled out a massive tax-cut plan. Two-year US Treasuries are in the middle of the longest losing streak since at least 1976, falling for 12 straight days.

“Bottom line, all those years of central bank interest-rate suppression - poof, gone,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group told the media outlet. “These bonds are trading like emerging market bonds, and the biggest financial bubble in the history of bubbles, that of sovereign bonds, continues to deflate,” he explained.

The Fed raised its policy-rate range to 3.25% on Wednesday, which is its third straight 75-basis-point hike, hinting further increases beyond 4.5%.

“With more Fed rate hiking coming and quantitative tightening, as well as the possibly more government debt issuance down the road amid less Treasury buyers out there now, it all just means higher rates,” managing director at Mischler Financial Glen Capelo said, adding: “The 10-year yield is definitely going to get closer to 4%.”

According to Bloomberg, in the coming week the market may face fresh volatility from the release of inflation data and public speaking engagements by Fed officials. Also, the sale of new two-, five- and seven-year Treasuries will likely spur trading volatility in those benchmarks, it reports.
70年以上ぶりの債券市場の大暴落がやってくる - Bloomberg







EU central bank warns ‘outlook is darkening’

The ECB has slashed growth forecasts, hiking interest rates even as it predicts inflation will climb further
Europe is facing lower-than-expected economic growth as inflation continues to climb, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde revealed on Monday, explaining that the ECB had raised interest rates by 75 basis points in an attempt to control soaring prices.

Speaking before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Monday, Lagarde admitted that “inflation remains far too high and is likely to stay above our target for an extended period.”

The former IMF boss warned that the “economic consequences for the euro area” of “Russia’s unjustified war of aggression on Ukraine” had spiraled further since June, a reference to Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas, which have sent fuel prices skyrocketing.

“The outlook is darkening,” she said.

While the Eurozone economy grew 0.8% in the second quarter, Lagarde said the ECB expected activity to “slow substantially” over the rest of 2022, to a total of 3.1% over the year and a mere 0.9% for all of 2023. Things will improve marginally in 2024, with growth projected at 1.9%, she said.

Much of this quarter’s economic growth was due to “strong consumer spending” driven by the reopening of Covid-shuttered industries like tourism, Lagarde said, while noting a decline in global demand due to what she called the “worsening terms of trade.”

High inflation is being “reinforced by gas supply disruptions,” she said, adding that “uncertainty” and “falling household and business confidence” were also contributing to the bleak predictions.

Inflation hit 9.1% in August, driven by energy and food prices. The ECB has hiked its inflation projections accordingly, setting 8.1% for 2022, 5.5% for 2023, and 2.3% for 2024, with Lagarde pointing the finger again at “major disruptions in energy supplies.”

The central bank’s recent 75-point interest increase earlier this month was only the second hike in 11 years, after it added 50 basis points in July. Lagarde said the increase would “dampen demand” but ensure that “inflation expectations remain well anchored.”

Lagarde admitted the situation is expected to “get worse before it gets better” with regard to high energy and food costs − the most important issues for two out of three Europeans right now, according to a Eurobarometer survey.

She urged governments, however, to make sure fiscal support for “the most vulnerable households” was “temporary and targeted” so as not to exacerbate “inflationary pressures.”








今月初めに中央銀行が行った75ポイントの利上げは、7月に50ベーシスポイントを上乗せした後、11年ぶり2回目の利上げとなった。ラガルドは、この引き上げは "需要を減衰させる "が、"インフレ期待は十分に固定されたままである "ことを保証するものだと述べた。



Eurozone economic growth may drop to zero – ECB
Economic output has been suffering due to rising energy costs
Eurozone economic growth has slumped and could soon wind down to zero, the European Central Bank (ECB) vice president said on Monday.

“We are seeing that in the third and fourth quarters there is a significant slowdown and we may find ourselves with growth rates close to zero,” Luis de Guindos said at a conference, according to Reuters.

Economic output has been suffering due to soaring energy costs and the loss of Russian natural gas, which has raised the risk of energy rationing during the upcoming heating season. Elevated energy prices propelled euro area annual inflation to 9.1% in August, and are expected to drive it up to 9.6% this month, a record high for the region.

The ECB raised interest rates earlier this month by an unprecedented 75 basis points, mere weeks after a 50 basis-point move in order to fight inflation. The regulator said more rate hikes are coming, with analysts expecting another rate move in October, with more increases at every meeting through next spring.

De Guindos did not disclose how aggressive these upcoming moves will be, noting only that they will be “data-dependent” and stressing that inflationary pressures have significantly increased in recent months.

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 17:39| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

HIMARS have failed to put much of a dent in the Russian supply chain

HIMARS have failed to put much of a dent in the Russian supply chain
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:17| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

ソロモン諸島に中国海軍基地設置 オセロゲームはかく進む

US won’t rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands

Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink warns security pact presents ‘potential regional security implications’
One of the most senior US officials in the Pacific has refused to rule out military action against Solomon Islands if it were to allow China to establish a military base there, saying that the security deal between the countries presented “potential regional security implications” for the US and other allies.

Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was part of a high-level US delegation to the Pacific country last week.

He said the US team, which also included the National Security Council coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, Kurt Campbell, had a 90-minute “constructive and candid” meeting with prime minister Manasseh Sogavare in which the US team detailed concerns about its recently signed security deal with China.
Temper tantrums and invasion threats over Solomon Islands deal with China will push Pacific allies away
Read more

“We wanted to outline for our friends in the Solomons, what our concerns are,” said Kritenbrink. “Prime minister Sogavare indicated that in the Solomon Islands’ view, the agreement they’ve concluded has solely domestic implications. But we’ve made clear that there are potential regional security implications of the agreement not just for ourselves, but for allies and partners across the region.”

On Tuesday, Kritenbrink reiterated the US’s willingness to act in the region if a military base were established by China.

“Of course, we have respect for the Solomon Islands sovereignty, but we also wanted to let them know that if steps were taken to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power projection capabilities, or a military installation, then we would have significant concerns, and we would very naturally respond to those concerns,” he said.

When asked what that response could involve, he said: “Look, I’m not going to speculate and I’m not in a position to talk about what the United States may or may not do in such a situation.”

Pressed on whether he would rule out the prospect of the US taking military action against Solomon Islands were a naval base to be established, and, if not, whether he was comfortable with Australian prime minister Scott Morrison’s talk of the base being a “red line” for Australia, he said: “I don’t have a lot to add beyond what I’ve already stated.”

In a statement last week, the Biden administration said the US would “respond accordingly” if China was allowed to establish a long-term presence on the islands, while noting assurances from Sogavare that he had no intention of allowing a military base.

The rhetoric escalated in the wake of the statement, with the Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, saying Australia had “the same red line” as the US when it came to China’s involvement in Solomon Islands, and defence minister Peter Dutton using his Anzac Day address on Monday to declare: “Australia should prepare for war”, claiming that China was “on a very deliberate course at the moment”.

Kritenbrink also noted China’s military ambitions, saying: “I think it’s important in this context, to keep in mind that we do know that the PRC [People’s Republic of China] is seeking to establish a more robust overseas logistics and basic infrastructure that would allow the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] to project and sustain military power at greater distances. So we wanted to have that candid conversation with our friends in the Solomons. We outlined our concerns … and we’ve indicated that we’ll continue to monitor the situation closely and continue to engage with them going forward.”

Australia reacts to ‘invasion’ threat claim
Canberra is concerned about a ‘secret’ security deal between the Solomon Islands and China, PM says
Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison has urged the Solomon Islands' leader Manasseh Sogavare to remain “calm” after he said his country was being “threatened with invasion” over a security pact it signed with China.

“We need to be calm and composed when we deal with these issues,” Morrison said on Thursday, insisting the relationship between Australia and the Solomon Islands remained friendly even while acknowledging he was concerned over “security” in the region following Sogavare’s decision to sign the “secret arrangement” with China.

Sogavare has criticized both the US and Australia’s response to the security pact his island recently inked with Beijing, insisting there is “nothing to be concerned about” and that the island nation is “insulted” by the West’s response to the move.

“We are being treated as kindergarten students walking around with Colt 45s in our hands” who “need to be supervised,” Sogavare complained, insisting his country was being “threatened with invasion” over the controversial pact and that Australia’s response demonstrated a “lack of trust.”

Sogavare said on Tuesday that there had been a “warning of military intervention” in the Solomon Islands if other countries’ security goals were undermined. “We are threatened with invasion,” he warned. “Now, that is serious.”

Morrison insisted that Australia remained Honiara’s “primary security partner,” and that his country trusted the island nation as an equal.

No final version of the pact between the island nation and China has yet been published, though a draft leaked in March mentioned Chinese warships were to be given safe harbor in the islands.

Morrison had previously warned that a Chinese military base in the Solomon Islands would be considered a “red line” for Canberra, though he did not explain what he would do to prevent it, or how.

The Australian PM dismissed suggestions during the press conference on Thursday that he had damaged the relationship between Canberra and Honiara, arguing he hadn’t spoken to his Solomon Islands counterpart on the advice of his country’s security agencies. He previously accused China of “interfering” in the Indo-Pacific region, expressing concern that the cooperation pact could eventually lead to the construction of a Chinese military base in the island nation, 2,000 kilometers away from Australia.

Australia goes to the polls on May 21, with Morrison facing fierce criticism of his foreign policy following the pact between Honiara and Beijing.

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 13:13| Comment(0) | 国際・政治


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 12:19| Comment(0) | Covid19




posted by ZUKUNASHI at 12:05| Comment(2) | Covid19

イラン Mahsa Amini氏の死亡で米国が制裁

European citizens arrested in Iran – authorities
The nine individuals had taken part in anti-government riots or were “plotting in the background,” the Intelligence Ministry said
Iran has detained nine foreign citizens from European countries for the role they played in recent protests over the death of a young woman in police custody, the nation’s Ministry of Intelligence said on Friday.

According to the ministry, nine unnamed persons from Germany, Poland, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, and other unspecified countries were arrested “during the riots or while plotting in the background.”

In addition, Iranian authorities issued warnings to the German, French, British, and Swedish embassies for the alleged involvement of their “agents” in the protests.

Moreover, the ministry claimed that the riots were largely fueled by foreign citizens and members of the Mojahedin-e-Khalq Organization, a group of Iranian dissidents currently operating out of Albania. It also claimed to have discovered 36kg of explosives, which terrorists allegedly planned to use to target public places.

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 11:55| Comment(0) | 国際・政治


オデッサ地方の武器庫の攻撃にイランが開発したShahed 136とみられる高性能ドローンが投入されています。これは自爆型です。現地の人が撮影した動画では、目標近くで急降下しています。このドローンに積んだ爆発物の破壊力は小さくても、目標に正確に当てられればそれで足ります。

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 11:40| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


この研究では、新しい T1D 診断は、以前に COVID-19 に感染した小児患者で、他の呼吸器感染症 (または他の医療システム(疾病?)との遭遇) の小児患者よりも発生する可能性が高かった. 呼吸器感染症は、これまでもT1D の発症と関連していました...
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 11:11| Comment(0) | Covid19

選挙による独裁国家 ハンガリーにEU内で不満

EU sanctions have ‘backfired’ – Orban
Hungary should prepare for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, says PM
Sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia over its military offensive in Ukraine have “backfired,” according to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who pointed out that skyrocketing energy prices in Europe were the result of the restrictions.

Speaking to parliament on Monday, the Hungarian leader warned that people should prepare for a “prolonged war” in Ukraine. He also stated that the EU’s response to the conflict was the reason governments across Europe have started falling, referring to Sunday’s elections in Italy where right-wing candidates were expected to take control of the government.

"We can safely say that as a result of the sanctions, European people have become poorer, while Russia has not fallen to its knees," said Orban, whose country, like many in the EU, currently faces surging inflation, plunging consumer confidence and a possible recession. “This weapon has backfired, with the sanctions Europe has shot itself in the foot.”

“We are waiting for an answer, the entire Europe is waiting for an answer from Brussels on how long we will keep doing this,” he added.

During a meeting with MPs last week, the Hungarian leader reportedly instructed the country’s ruling coalition to work hard to have the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions scrapped by the end of the year, claiming the move would immediately result in gas prices being cut in half, in turn bringing down inflation, Magyar Nemzet daily reported.

Orban, who was re-elected for a fourth term in a landslide victory in April, has been an outspoken critic of the EU leadership and has accused Brussels of causing unnecessary hardships for member states in its efforts to punish Russia for launching a military offensive against Ukraine.

The European Parliament voted earlier this month to no longer consider Hungary a “democracy” and has branded the country an “electoral autocracy,” accusing Orban of failing to follow the EU’s stance on immigration and sanctions. The Parliament’s report on Hungary’s political system has urged the European Commission to make “full use of the tools available” to force Budapest back in line with “European values.”

Hungary slammed the report as being based on “subjective opinions and politically biased statements,” and claimed it was “yet another attempt by the federalist European political parties to attack Hungary and its Christian-democratic, conservative government.”




ハンガリーの指導者は先週、国会議員との会談で、EUの反ロシア制裁を年内に撤廃するよう連立政権に働きかけるよう指示したと報じられ、この動きは直ちにガス価格の半減につながり、ひいてはインフレを低下させると主張している、とMagyar Nemzet日刊紙は報じている。


欧州議会は今月初め、ハンガリーをもはや「民主主義国」とみなさないことを決議し、同国を「選挙による独裁国家」と決めつけ、移民や制裁に関するEUの姿勢に従わないオルバン氏を非難している。ハンガリーの政治体制に関する欧州議会の報告書は、欧州委員会に対し、ブダペストを "欧州の価値 "に沿うように強制するために「利用できる手段をフル活用する」よう促している。

ハンガリーはこの報告書を「主観的な意見と政治的に偏った記述」に基づいていると非難し、"ハンガリーとそのキリスト教民主主義の保守政権を攻撃しようとする連邦主義のヨーロッパの政党によるさらに別の試み "であると主張した。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 08:03| Comment(0) | 国際・政治