International North-South Corridor

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 22:33| Comment(0) | 国際・政治


When sanctions backfire: The EU doesn't have a plan for life without cheap Russia energy, so what happens next?
As Germany reports its first trade deficit in 30 years, the prospects for West European industry look grim thanks to the US-led sanctions on Russia
Germany’s May foreign trade balance showed a €1 billion deficit. This has led many analysts to question the future of the country's economy and the outlook for the European Union in general.

The bad news doesn’t stop there either. As of July 3, Germany’s total global market capitalization, meaning German companies’ total value share of global stock exchanges, stood at an all-time low, 1.97%. Meanwhile, on July 5, the euro fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since 2002.

Robin Brooks, chief economist for the Institute of International Finance, summed up the situation regarding German trade quite well. “Germany's growth model has been to import cheap energy from Russia, use that to assemble manufactured goods and export those goods to the rest of the world. While Germany now seeks new energy suppliers, its trade balance and that of the Euro zone will look ugly,” he wrote on Twitter.

The question is whether or not this dip is permanent. Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University, also shared his opinion on Twitter, but he said that Germany’s trade deficit is not that historic. “Germany will have only switched from permanent surpluses to permanent deficits if there has been either a permanent increase in German investment or a permanent decrease in German savings,” he said.

Pettis continued that neither of these things has happened, with the former “unlikely” and the latter having “nothing to do with the recent adjustment in Germany's trade balance.” Because of this, he deems the situation temporary.

It seems reasonable, however, that there would be a clear correlation between rising energy prices and this hit to German manufacturing. Rising energy prices likewise imply reductions in savings because of inflation. On July 7, Germany’s neighbor, the Czech Republic, reported a foreign trade deficit of nearly $1 billion – which strengthens the correlation between rising European energy prices and lower exports.

So the main problem appears to be exactly what Brooks laid out, namely the EU’s source of energy. If indeed cheap Russian oil and gas are cut out from the EU permanently, then logically the effects of this on EU economies will be permanent – unless, in a highly unlikely scenario, they field an alternative supply that is both sufficient and comparably priced.

One solution on the table is for the EU to import liquified natural gas (LNG) from the United States. However, shipments of American LNG to the EU and UK have already increased since the political tensions between Europe and Russia began. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the US exported 74% of its LNG to Europe in the first four months of 2022, which is up from 34% the previous year. But this was apparently not enough to keep European energy prices stable.

This raises a fundamental issue, which is whether the European Union can actually afford to maintain its sanctions on Russia. Members’ economic models are simply not compatible with the reality that their sanctions are creating, and this is already hurting people’s wellbeing and leading to social and political unrest.

The European Union’s foreign policy is supposed to follow the doctrine of “strategic autonomy,” but what is happening is neither strategic nor an act of autonomy. No doubt the situation in Ukraine is horrifying and has led Europeans to question the existing security architecture of the region, but, if the latest strategic concept of NATO is any suggestion, the shots are being called from Washington.

Famed international relations scholar John Mearsheimer recently lamented in a speech that, “History will judge the United States and its allies with abundant harshness for its foolish policy on Ukraine.” In fact, the prevailing allied policy on Ukraine is doing everything to ensure that the conflict becomes protracted – which has the dual threat of destroying Ukraine and hurting Europe’s future economic prospects.

That’s because the longer the conflict continues, or if it continues indefinitely, it means the bifurcation between Russia and the West will be permanent. And it logically follows that this will impact the economic model of European countries, particularly of Germany. If that is the eventuality we are headed for, then the EU’s fate becomes a question.

Already, people in the Czech capital of Prague are beginning to joke that in a few years Europe will be nothing more than a summer holiday spot for the Americans and Chinese. But are there really enough jobs in the tourism industry for all of us here? And can we all withstand the winter off-season?

Jokes aside, I believe that Germany’s trade deficit is significant. In a few days, the trend could be more pronounced if other industrial European countries report similar deficits. At the very least, this should sound the alarm on exactly what the European Union’s long-term plans are vis-á-vis Russia and whether or not European industry can feasibly survive with sanctions on Russian energy.

My bet is that it can’t. And this goes to show just how destructive blindly following Washington’s foreign policy is, time and time again, for Europe.

ドイツの 5 月の対外貿易収支は 10 億ユーロの赤字となった。このため、多くのアナリストが同国経済の将来と欧州連合(EU)全般の見通しを疑問視している。


Institute of International FinanceのチーフエコノミストであるRobin Brooks氏は、ドイツの貿易をめぐる状況をうまく言い表している。「ドイツの成長モデルは、ロシアから安いエネルギーを輸入し、それを使って製造品を組み立て、世界に輸出することだった。ドイツは今、新しいエネルギー供給源を求めているが、ドイツの貿易収支とユーロ圏の貿易収支は醜いものになるだろう」とツイッターに書き込んだ。


前者は "ありえない"、後者は "最近のドイツの貿易収支の調整とは関係がない "と、どちらも起こっていないとペティスは続けた。このため、彼はこの状況を一時的なものとみなしている。












posted by ZUKUNASHI at 21:10| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

PCR検査で感染の証拠を得るのも大事ですが 同時にやることがある


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 20:25| Comment(0) | Covid19



山添拓氏のこのツイートは正しいです。ロシアが日本を攻めて何の利益がありますか? 米国の前線基地をつぶすという意味はあるかもしれません。それをやるならミサイルでピンポイントで破壊するでしょう。民間人は巻き添えにしません。

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 19:45| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

モンキーポックスは空気感染する 無症状者からも感染

@ サル痘が空気感染することが確認されています。

A 発疹が起こる前から上気道スワブ検体からウイルスが検出されています。CT値も25以下と高い。


B 治療薬はない。(日本の安価な薬、トラニラスト(リザベン)が効くとの説もありますが、臨床などのデータがありません)

C 天然痘の予防注射が効果があるとの見解もありますが、WHOは現時点では推奨していません。

D 哺乳類のペットに感染する。

E 潜伏期は12日程度、3週間説も。

F 死亡率は1%説から10%説まで幅がある。

G 感染確認はPCR検査による。

H 感染者の使用した衣類、寝具などに触らない。(感染者の皮膚に接したものはウィルスが付着している。)




サル痘 何が何でも感染できない事態




posted by ZUKUNASHI at 19:35| Comment(0) | サル痘




posted by ZUKUNASHI at 18:10| Comment(0) | Covid19



posted by ZUKUNASHI at 10:35| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

オランダの軍基地に農民が侵入 戦闘機を移動させる

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 10:23| Comment(0) | 国際・政治


US war hawks visit Kiev
US Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal have both supported pouring arms and money into Ukraine

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat Senator Richard Blumenthal met on Thursday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who petitioned the lawmakers for more weapons. Blumenthal and Graham have been two of the most ardently pro-Ukraine voices in the US Congress.

According to Zelensky’s office, the Ukrainian leader insisted to the Americans that the military situation in Ukraine is “certainly difficult, yet controlled.” This statement was made despite the fact that Russian and Donbass forces recently pushed Kiev’s military out of the entire Lugansk People’s Republic, and, according to Moscow, inflicted more than 5,000 casualties and destroyed hundreds of tanks and other pieces of military hardware over the last two weeks.

Zelensky called on Graham and Blumenthal to push Washington to supply Ukraine with air defense systems, which the Pentagon says will be sent to Kiev soon. The trio also spoke about Blumenthal and Graham’s efforts to have Congress classify Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, a step which some US allies have balked at.

Of the overwhelming majority of US lawmakers who voted in May to supply Ukraine with $40 billion in military and economic aid, Graham and Blumenthal are two of the most committed supporters of Zelensky’s government, and have been since before Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in February.

Graham visited Ukraine in 2017 with the late Arizona Senator John McCain, where he told Ukrainian marines that he would “take [their] case to Washington” and ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin pays “a heavier price,” as the Russian-speaking regions of Donetsk and Lugansk sought independence from Kiev.

Blumenthal, who previously lied about serving in Vietnam, joined colleagues from both parties for a jaunt to Ukraine in January, where he promised military aid to Zelensky’s government more than a month before fighting started. On top of voting for the $40 billion aid bill for Ukraine, Blumenthal introduced legislation on Tuesday that would commit the US to financing the reconstruction of the country when hostilities eventually cease.

Graham, known as one of the most pro-war members of the Republican Party, has gone further than voting to back Zelensky’s military. In March, the South Carolina Republican called twice for the assassination of Putin, declaring that he wanted the Russian leader “taken out, one way or the other.”

“Is there a Brutus in Russia? Is there a more successful Colonel Stauffenberg in the Russian military?” he asked, referring to the assassin of Julius Caesar and the would-be assassin of Adolf Hitler.

Graham has ruled out a negotiated peace in Ukraine, telling Fox News in May that “there is no off-ramp in this war,” and urging the Biden administration to “triple down” on its support for Kiev.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 08:51| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


Ukraine could be wiped off the map – former Trump military adviser
Colonel Douglas Macgregor has argued for a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Ukraine could disappear from the map unless the conflict with Russia is resolved peacefully, former Trump military adviser Colonel Douglas Macgregor said in an interview with Sky News Australia on Wednesday.

When asked what more could be done to help Ukraine in the ongoing military conflict, Macgregor stated that “the longer this lasts, the more people are going to be needlessly slaughtered, the more damage will be done to Ukraine,” adding that it is now “effectively a failed state, it could be erased completely from the map.”

Noting that Ukraine’s military has suffered enormous losses during the conflict and that Russian forces were “by no means overstretched or hurting at this point,” Macgregor argued that “we need a ceasefire” and that countries like Australia should be pushing for it since “no one in Washington is going to do it.”

“We can’t afford to fight this until there are no longer any Ukrainians left,” he insisted, noting that he has heard from people in Berlin, Paris, and London that there is growing support for a ceasefire or coming to “some sort of an arrangement” between Moscow and Kiev.

The former adviser also commented on the prospects of Russian President Vladimir Putin agreeing to such a ceasefire, noting that he has “never been interested in all of Ukraine,” and that the territory currently under Russia’s control is the “traditional Russian-speaking area.”

Macgregor noted that Ukrainian forces which were concentrated in the Donbass region were of “great concern” to Vladimir Putin, who feared these forces “would attack Russia,” and the US would “inevitably deploy theater ballistic missiles there to hold his [Putin’s] nuclear capability at risk.”

“He’s not going to withdraw, that’s out of the question,” the former top Pentagon adviser said, suggesting that if the two sides were unwilling to come to some sort of arrangement on a territorial basis, then an armistice should be achieved, lest the conflict grow into a “wider, regional war.”

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements, designed to give the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state. The protocols, brokered by Germany and France, were first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has since admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.”

In February 2022, the Kremlin recognized the Donbass republics as independent states and demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join any Western military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked.


現在進行中の軍事衝突において、ウクライナを助けるためにもっと何ができるかと問われたマクレイガー氏は、「これが長引けば長引くほど、より多くの人々が不必要に虐殺され、ウクライナにさらなるダメージがもたらされるだろう」と述べ、現在 "事実上の失敗国家、地図から完全に消されるかもしれない "と付け加えました。



また、元顧問は、ロシアのプーチン大統領がそのような停戦に同意する見込みについて、「ウクライナ全土に関心を持ったことはない」とし、現在ロシアの支配下にある領域は "伝統的なロシア語圏 "であるとコメントした。


"彼は撤退するつもりはない、それは問題外だ "と元ペンタゴン最高顧問は言い、もし双方が領土ベースで何らかの取り決めをする気がないのであれば、紛争が "より広い地域戦争 "に発展しないように、休戦を達成すべきであると示唆した。

ロシアは2月24日、キエフがドネツクとルガンスクの両地域にウクライナ国家としての特別な地位を与えるためのミンスク協定を履行しないとして、ウクライナに軍を派遣した。ドイツとフランスが仲介したこの議定書は、2014年に初めて署名されました。ウクライナのペトロ・ポロシェンコ前大統領はその後、キエフの主な目的は、停戦を利用して時間を稼ぎ、"強力な武装勢力を生み出すこと "だったと認めている。



posted by ZUKUNASHI at 07:58| Comment(0) | ウクライナ


US eyes direct war with Russia – Belarus
The US wants to launch attacks from Poland and the Baltic states, military intelligence chief claimed
The US is making plans for a direct war against Russia and its ally Belarus, the head of Belarusian military intelligence warned on Thursday. The scenario is becoming more likely as the proxy war in Ukraine and other ways to hurt the two nations are failing, he claimed.

“The territory of Poland as well as the Baltic states is being turned into a staging ground, from which the US plans to unleash a new bloody conflict in Europe, targeting the Russian Federation and its allies,” Major General Ruslan Kosygin said.

He cited NATO training troops for rapid deployment in Eastern Europe and the development of anti-ballistic missile systems in the region as evidence of the looming crisis. Further proof, he claimed, is the “dangerous attempts by some Polish politicians to initiate a return of so-called historically Polish regions” in western Ukraine and Belarus.

The general said his agency believed that Western nations were preparing for an attack against Belarus and Russia under the guise of deterring Russia from launching an invasion, which is how NATO justifies its military build up in Eastern Europe. Belarus “does not favor” the scenario of a war, but will act decisively, if it comes true, Kosygin said.

He said an escalation was becoming increasingly possible because “the West is coming to the realization that traditional methods of hybrid aggression against Russia and Belarus are not producing the results it wants.”

Direct confrontation with Poland and Baltic nations, if it starts, would be similar to the hostilities in Ukraine in terms of principal origin, Kosygin said. Ukraine “was deliberately pumped with weapons since 2014. It was trained to fight, and fight particularly against the Russians,” he said.

“Unfortunately, similar anti-Russian, and lately anti-Belarussian sentiments have been injected in the same way into the minds of people of Poland and the Baltic states,” he added.

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 07:55| Comment(0) | ウクライナ