ずくなしの冷や水

2022年06月25日

夏にはガスは政治兵器ではない



・・・・・

世界の石油、ガスの需給バランスがまだ明らかでありませんが、ロシアがガス、石油を中国とインドに振り向けました。両国ともに需要増加国。しかもディスカウントで長期大量輸入契約のようです。

そうですと、欧州に向けられていた分は、これらの国の需要増加分に充てられて、欧州が新規の輸入先を探しても見つからないことになります。

ロシア産原油は、ディーゼル油を取り出すには欠かせないようです。

新規の調達先が見つかっても、運搬、荷揚げ施設があるかどうかという問題もあります。経済制裁が解除されても、この冬まで問題は尾を引くことは必至のようです。

EU buying more Russian oil – Bloomberg
Deliveries are reportedly at the highest level in two months despite an EU embargo
Europe has increased the amount of crude oil it is importing from Russia, Bloomberg reported this week. That’s despite an EU embargo agreed less than a month ago.

Oil refineries on the continent purchased 1.84 million barrels a day of Russian crude last week, Bloomberg reported, citing tanker tracking data, adding that it was the third consecutive weekly increase and the highest level that Europe, including Turkey, received in almost two months.

The increases have been attributed to Litasco SA, the trading arm of Russia’s Lukoil, transporting the barrels to its refineries in Italy, Romania, and Bulgaria, and purchases by Turkey.

The EU approved a partial ban on Russian oil last month, pledging to block 90% of all imports by next year. The bloc-wide ban targets crude that arrives by sea but leaves some exemptions for pipeline imports.

According to Bloomberg, some companies and countries have already stepped back, leaving the market to others who are happy to continue to buy Russian crude that is being offered at huge discounts.

Earlier this month The Economist reported that the supply of Russian oil to the European Union rose by 14% between January and April, despite the continent’s pledge to wind down imports.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 23:56| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

ポーランド傭兵2個大隊がザポロジエ地方北部で撃破される


次の情報については続報がなく確認できていません。


ポーランド傭兵2個大隊、ザポロジエ地方北部で撃破
このニュースは、メディアを通じて活発に広まっている。 ニュースポータル「Fin Journal」は、「ポーランドからウクライナに配備された傭兵2個大隊が、Zaporozhyeの南東15kmで撃破された」と伝えている。 予備的なデータによると、350人の軍人がいるということだ。
これは2個師団の本来の構成の70％にあたる。ポーランドの与党「法と正義」の党首で、ポーランドの政治の「灰色の著名人」であるヤロスワフ・カチンスキが辞任した

・・・・

ザポリージェの南東15kmとありますから、すぐ近くです。

副首相のテレグラムがつながらず読めません。
ヤロスワフ・カチンスキ (Jarosław Kaczyński)
ポーランド副首相、元首相、年齢 73歳

350人もの人的損害か？



posted by ZUKUNASHI at 22:47| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

China’s nuclear program



posted by ZUKUNASHI at 21:07| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

ワクチン慎重論








2022年06月16日
mRNA接種者に天然痘生ワクチンは危険がある可能性

2022年06月02日
ワクチン接種で補助金など　ワクチンをめぐる奇怪な話

2022年06月20日
コロナ、ワクチン後遺症　mRNAワクチンは薬害事件


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 18:56| Comment(0) | Covid19

ドローン画像はここまで高品質になっている

次の二つの動画は、戦争で使われるドローン画像がどれほどに精細な画像を送っているかがわかります。最初の動画では草の葉が風で揺れています。
2枚目の画像は広範囲を動き回りズームアップも自在であることがわかります。




次は、アフリカで中国の協力で井戸を掘ったら水が噴き出したところのようです。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 18:21| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

リトアニアの制裁物資通過拒否で緊張高まる

NATO engaged in ‘direct aggression’ against Russia, Moscow must defend itself – senator
The bloc is forcing Moscow to apply adequate self-defense, Andrey Klimov said after Lithuania blocked the transit of sanctioned goods to Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad

NATO member state Lithuania is now effectively engaged in “direct aggression” against Russia, senator Andrey Klimov argued in his Telegram post on Monday, citing Vilnius’ decision to stop the transit of sanctioned goods to Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad.

According to the Russian politician, who heads a commission for the defense of state sovereignty, by refusing to let certain goods pass through its territory to the Russian region, Lithuania has violated a treaty signed between Moscow and Brussels 20 years ago.

Unless the EU brings its member state to heel and forces it to respect the accord, a huge question mark would be hanging over the legal basis for Lithuania’s membership in the bloc, Klimov argued. The senator stressed that in this case, Moscow would have a free hand to “solve the problem of the Kaliningrad transit created by Lithuania by ANY means chosen by us.”

Klimov went on to quote from the ‘Joint statement on transit between Kaliningrad Region and the rest of the Russian Federation’ dated November 11, 2002. The document, among other things, stated that the “parties acknowledge the unique position of Kaliningrad region as part of Russia separated from the rest of the Federation’s territory by other states.” Bearing this in mind, the signatories agreed to “make special efforts to allay both sides’ concerns with respect to the future transit of people and goods,” the senator pointed out.

The Russian lawmaker added that the uninterrupted transit from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad Region was guaranteed when Lithuania joined NATO back in 2004.

Klimov warned that the military alliance is “de jure starting with the hands of one of its member states an unacceptable blockade” of a Russian region.





さてロシアはどう出る？





'Casus belli': What Kaliningrad blockade means for Russia
The transit of some goods through Lithuania has been blocked, raising concerns over shortages in Russia's exclave
Lithuania blocked the rail transit of some Russian goods to the country’s Kaliningrad Region on Saturday. Vilnius authorities explained the move by stating that the goods in question were sanctioned by Brussels in connection with the conflict in Ukraine, and therefore can no longer pass through EU territory even if they travel from one part of Russia to another.

Why is that important?
Kaliningrad Region is a Russian exclave in Europe, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania along the Baltic Coast. Its position in the heart of Europe enables it to easily deliver Russian goods to any part of the EU bloc. As an exclave, or a territory which belongs to Russia but is geographically separated from the mainland, it should be granted full access to and from mainland Russia under international law. Therefore, some analysts suggest that Lithuania’s move to block Russia’s access to its own territory could, to some extent, be considered a ‘casus belli’ – a cause for the declaration of war.
Why did Lithuania block transit?
According to Lithuanian officials, the decision was made after getting the approval of the European Commission, EU’s main governing body. Many countries, including EU member states, imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia in response to its military operation in Ukraine in late February. The European bloc, among other things, banned the entry of a number of Russian goods to the EU. Vilnius’ move is allegedly meant to enforce these bans.
Is the transit of all goods blocked?
No, only the goods sanctioned by Brussels were denied passage. Among them are crude oil and oil products, coal, metals, construction materials, advanced technology, glassware, some foods and fertilizers, alcohol, etc. According to the region's governor, Anton Alikhanov, the ban means that as much as 50% of all goods destined for Kaliningrad could be blocked.
Can the block result in supply shortages in the region?
Not necessarily, as the passage via the Baltic Sea is still open for Russia to use. According to Kaliningrad officials, as well as the heads of most retail chains, the region is well-stocked in food and supplies and would not suffer from delivery setbacks for three to six months. A significant portion of meat, dairy, and fish is produced in the region, and, according to the head of the region’s main port, Elena Zaitseva, Kaliningrad has even exported some corn, wheat, and rapeseed in recent years.
Is there a threat to tourism/passenger traffic?
No threat for now. While passenger trains from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad through Lithuania were halted back in early April, four major Russian airlines maintain Moscow-Kaliningrad flights. Sea ferries are also available, while reports state that Russian officials are currently working on launching passenger sea routes through the Baltic.

Lithuania changes tune on Kaliningrad blockade
Vilnius insists it did not introduce any additional restrictions but is actually adhering to EU sanctions
リトアニア外務省は月曜日、ロシア本土とポーランドとリトアニアに挟まれたロシアの飛び地であるカリーニングラード間の多くの物品の輸送に対するEU制裁の適用について説明したメモを、同国のモスクワの代理大使に手渡した。

ビリニュスは、飛び地とロシアの他の地域との間の通過を全面的に禁止したわけではなく、いかなる追加的な制限も導入していないと主張している。リトアニアは、EU制裁の対象ではない旅客や物品の通過は、通常通り自国領土を通過すると主張している。

"リトアニアはトランジットに関して、一方的、個別的、追加的な制限を課していない。リトアニアは、異なる移行期間と発効期限を持つEU制裁を一貫して実施してきた」と記されている。

これに先立ち、リトアニアのガブリエリウス・ランズベルギス外相は、これらの制限を課すという決定は、ビリニュスが欧州委員会と協議した後になされ、その指導の下で実施されたものであると述べた。


Russia threatens Lithuania with ‘serious’ consequences
Moscow will retaliate to the transport “blockade” of Kaliningrad Region, the top security official says
Moscow’s retaliation to Lithuania’s transport “blockade” of Russia’s Kaliningrad Region will seriously affect Lithuanian citizens, Nikolay Patrushev, the head of Russia’s Security Council, has said.

“Of course, Russia will respond to hostile actions. Appropriate measures are in the works, and will be adopted in the near future,” Patrushev told reporters during a trip to Kaliningrad on Tuesday.

He added that the consequences of Moscow’s response will “have a serious negative impact on the people of Lithuania.”

Kaliningrad Region is a small Russian exclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. On Saturday, Lithuania’s national railway operator banned the flow of sanctioned goods between the region and the rest of Russia, citing instructions from the European Commission.

Moscow slammed the move as illegal under international law and summoned the Lithuanian ambassador. On Tuesday, the Foreign Ministry summoned the EU’s envoy to Russia, Markus Ederer. “We demanded that the normal functioning of the Kaliningrad transit is restored immediately,” the ministry said in a statement.

Many countries, including EU members, imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow in response to Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, which was launched in late February.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, defended Vilnius on Monday, saying it was acting in accordance with the bloc’s sanctions mechanism. “Lithuania is not guilty, it is not implementing national sanctions,” he told reporters.
リトアニアのカリーニングラード州への輸送 "封鎖 "にモスクワが報復、安全保障トップが発言
ロシアのカリーニングラード州に対するリトアニアの輸送「封鎖」に対するモスクワの報復は、リトアニア国民に深刻な影響を与えると、ロシア安全保障会議のニコライ・パトルシェフ議長が述べています。

「もちろん、ロシアは敵対的行為に対応する。適切な措置が講じられており、近い将来採用されるだろう」と、パトルシェフは火曜日にカリーニングラードを訪問した際、記者団に語った。

また、モスクワの対応の結果、"リトアニアの人々に深刻な悪影響を与えるだろう "と付け加えた。




EU to review Kaliningrad blockade
Sanctions guidelines shouldn't “block” traffic between Russia and its Kaliningrad exclave, top diplomat says
The EU is not seeking to impose a “blockade” on Russia’s Kaliningrad Region and will review its sanctions guidelines to avoid “blocking” traffic into and out of the exclave, the bloc’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said Thursday.

Lithuania’s actions to restrict transit to and from Kaliningrad, implemented under EU Commission guidelines, are aimed foremost at preventing the circumvention of anti-Russia sanctions imposed over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Borrell explained.

“We want to make controls that could prevent any kind of sanctions avoidance, and not preventing the traffic. And the [European] Commission and the European External Action Service are going to review the guidelines in order to clarify that we do not want to block or prevent the traffic between Russia and Kaliningrad,” the diplomat told a news conference.

There are some goods which are under control and this control has to be implemented in a clever and smart way in order to control the sanctions, but not obstructing the traffic between Kaliningrad and Russia.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 15:06| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

米国はウクライナ紛争の外交的解決を支援する用意？

次のツイートはソースが確認できませんが、来週の動きで確認です。

ブリンケン：

米国は、ウクライナの紛争に対する外交的解決策を支援する準備ができています。

そのメッセージが来週の今度は一貫しているかどうか見てみましょう。


・・・・

ウクライナ紛争が外交的な解決に向かうことになれば、結論が出るまでに時間がかかるとしても、金融市場にインパクトがあるでしょう。
2022/6/24の米国株式市場は、ダウが823ドル、2.68％の上昇となりました。これは、ミシガン大学が発表した6月の消費者態度指数が低かったことが影響したと言われていますが、おそらく米国金融界では、上の情報が早くに流れていたでしょう。

ただ、ブリンケンの言葉をそのように受け止めない意見も多いです。


しかし、米国はウクライナ紛争を止める以外には物価高騰を抑える手段を持っていません。

US makes confession about skyrocketing food and energy prices
The Federal Reserve has no tools to deal with the problem, Jerome Powell says
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday vowed to do whatever it takes to tackle inflation but admitted he can’t control some cost spikes, including food and prices at the pump.
Powell told the Senate Banking Committee he doesn’t expect gas or grocery prices to fall as a result of the Fed’s campaign of rate hikes.

“There’s really not anything that we can do about oil prices,” Powell said, explaining that “they’re set at the global level.”

According to the Fed chair, the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have added to inflation pressures across the world. He noted that global supply chains are still experiencing strains, which the Fed doesn’t have the tools to address. Surging food prices “would certainly be much lower” if not for the war in Ukraine, Powell stated.

Price pressures have continued to build for months, forcing the US central bank to ramp up its tightening of financial conditions. Last week, the regulator raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in its biggest hike since 1994, signaling that the economy is continuing to weaken.
パウエル米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）議長は24日、インフレに対処するために必要なことは何でもすると宣言したが、食料品や給油所の価格など、一部のコスト上昇を抑えることができないことは認めた。
パウエル議長は上院銀行委員会で、FRBの利上げキャンペーンの結果、ガソリンや食料品の価格が下がることはないと述べた。

"原油価格について我々ができることは本当に何もない "とパウエル氏は言い、"世界レベルで決まっている "と説明した。

FRB議長によると、Covid-19のパンデミックとウクライナ戦争が世界的にインフレ圧力に拍車をかけている。FRB議長によると、世界のサプライチェーンは依然として緊張状態にあり、FRBはそれに対処する手段を持っていないと指摘した。パウエルは、ウクライナ戦争がなければ、食料品価格の高騰は「確実にもっと低くなっていただろう」と述べた。

物価上昇圧力は何ヶ月も続き、米中央銀行は金融引き締めを強化せざるを得なかった。先週、中央銀行は1994年以来最大の4分の3ポイントの金利引き上げを行い、経済が弱体化し続けていることを示唆した。

IMF sees significant downside risks for US economy growth in 2022 − IMF Chief
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted that, the US economy is unlikely to avoid a recession
WASHINGTON, June 25. /TASS/. Experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) think that there are significant downside risks for the US economy this year and especially next year, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said presenting the annual report on the state of the American economy in Washington.

"We see very significant downside risks [in the US economy] this year and especially next year," she said. Georgieva noted that, according to the baseline scenario, which is being considered by the IMF, the US economy is unlikely to avoid a recession.

High energy prices pose risks to the global economy and also affect the pace of its development, Georgieva told.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 13:32| Comment(0) | ウクライナ

コロナワクチン　事後　異常事態



posted by ZUKUNASHI at 11:38| Comment(0) | Covid19

ウクライナ全土で大規模な徴兵狩り

Ukraine replenishes combat losses with convicts and women – RT source
Draft notices are said to being handed to people in the streets, eateries, and beaches amid conflict with Russia
A large-scale hunt for conscripts is underway across Ukraine amid the military conflict with Russia, a source within Kiev’s military has told RT Russian. Ukraine is reportedly unscrupulous about those being recruited and the means of delivering draft notices to them.

The military recruiters are now allowed to hand out draft notices to people not only at their place of residence, but also in the streets, restaurants, entertainment facilities and anywhere else.

“Ukraine needs fresh manpower,” an employee of an active recruiting station in Kiev, who chose to remain anonymous, told RT. Draft notices are “being given in public places – everyone knows that. It happens at malls, recreation areas, gas stations – it doesn’t matter where. The goal is to recruit as many people as possible for the military reserve,” he said.

A man from the south-eastern Zaporozhye Region recalled how he and his friend were stopped at a checkpoint and told to present their military IDs, which they didn’t have. The duo was only released by the troops by promising they would go to the recruitment stations right away and obtain the necessary papers.

“Now we are hiding in a small village. We mainly stay indoors. There’s no talk of going to the city,” he revealed. The man he knew could face criminal charges over this behavior, but he said that it was still better than going to the front.

All males, aged between 18 and 60, have been told to stay in the country and fight after Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in late February.

In the Black Sea port of Odessa, the locals, who are dodging service, have set up a special channel on Telegram to share real-time data on the areas where the draft notices are being handed out in the city.

The health condition of the recruits apparently also doesn’t bother Kiev authorities too much. The medical examination includes “only four doctors: A surgeon, a neurologist, a psychiatrist, and an ophthalmologist. No in-depth checks are being carried out. Doctors only ask questions, that's all,” one draftee told RT.

The recruits are being given the most basic training, if any, and mainly assigned to territorial defense formations intended to carry out guard duties in the home front. But there have been more and reports in recent weeks of such units being sent to Donbass to face the advancing Russian forces.

According to the law, which has been put forward by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian women who hold certain jobs should now also obtain military registration, and are faced with a fine if they fail to do so. Getting a new job has also been made impossible for them without the relevant papers from the recruitment station.

Those women can only be assigned civilian roles in the Defense Ministry, but in some parts of Ukraine, volunteer female units are being formed with the aim of actually going to the front. The mayor of the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk announced in April that the local all-women battalion would “fight alongside men.”

Inmates of Ukrainian prisons have also been used as a source of manpower by Kiev authorities. In late May, the country’s justice minister announced that 363 convicts were released so they could join the military. Prisoners went through thorough screenings to ensure they posed no danger, he insisted.
Ukraine gives update on combat losses READ MORE: Ukraine gives update on combat losses

Such a massive draft campaign is due to heavy losses suffered by the Ukrainian army, military expert Colonel Viktor Baranets told RT.

“There are not enough contract soldiers and officers. The personnel shortage in the Ukrainian army is increasing because during the special operation a large number of seasoned Nazis were put out of action. And those reservists, who are now sent into battle aren’t fit for the task. But, more importantly, there are staff shortages not only in the military, but also in territorial defense. That’s why even women are being called up too,” Baranets explained.

Earlier this month, Zelensky’s top aide Mikhail Podolyak revealed that the Ukrainian military was losing up to 100 to 200 troops daily in the battle for the Donbass. Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov refused to give an exact number of Kiev troops killed in the fighting, but said he hoped the figure was below 100,000.
ロシアとの軍事衝突の中、ウクライナ全土で大規模な徴兵狩りが行われていると、キエフ軍内の情報筋がRTロシアに語った。ウクライナは、徴兵される者と徴兵通知を届ける手段について、無節操であると伝えられている。

軍隊の勧誘員は、居住地だけでなく、街頭やレストラン、娯楽施設など、どこでも徴兵の通知を配ることができるようになったのだ。

「ウクライナは新鮮な人材を必要としている」と、キエフにある現役の徴兵所の職員（匿名を選択）はRTに語った。徴兵制の告知は「公共の場で行われている。誰もが知っていることだ。ショッピングモールやレクリエーション施設、ガソリンスタンドなど、どこでもいいのです。目的は、できるだけ多くの人を予備役としてリクルートすることです」と彼は言った。

南東部ザポロジエ州の男性は、友人と一緒に検問所で呼び止められ、軍人証を提示するように言われたが、持っていなかったと振り返った。二人は、すぐに徴兵所に行って必要な書類を手に入れると約束することで、隊員から解放された。

「今、私たちは小さな村に隠れています。主に室内にいる。都会に出るという話もない」と明かした。彼の知人は、この行動で刑事責任を問われる可能性もあるが、「それでも前線に行くよりはましだ」と言っていた。

ロシアが2月下旬にウクライナで軍事作戦を開始した後、18歳から60歳までのすべての男性は、国内にとどまって戦うよう指示されている。

黒海の港町オデッサでは、兵役逃れの地元の人たちがテレグラムで特別チャンネルを立ち上げ、徴兵通知が配られる地域のデータをリアルタイムで共有している。

新兵の健康状態も、どうやらキエフ当局はあまり気にしていないようだ。健康診断には「4人の医師しかいない。外科医、神経科医、精神科医、眼科医。綿密な検査は行われていない。医師はただ質問をするだけです」と、ある徴兵者はRTに語った。

新兵は、あったとしても最も基本的な訓練を受け、主に国内戦線での警備任務を遂行することを目的とした領土防衛隊に配属されている。しかし、ここ数週間、このような部隊がドンバスに送られ、進撃するロシア軍と対峙しているとの報告が増えている。

ウクライナのヴォロディミル・ゼレンスキー大統領が提唱したこの法律によると、特定の職業に就くウクライナ人女性は現在、軍登録も取得しなければならず、それを怠ると罰金を科されることになる。また、新しい仕事を得るにも、徴兵所からの関連書類がなければ不可能になった。

彼女たちに与えられるのは国防省の文官としての役割だけだが、ウクライナの一部では、実際に前線に出ることを目的とした女性ボランティア部隊が結成されている。西部のイワノフランキフスク市の市長は4月、地元の女性だけの大隊が "男性と一緒に戦う "と表明した。

ウクライナの刑務所の囚人もキエフ当局の人手として利用されてきた。5月下旬、同国の法務大臣は、363人の受刑者を釈放し、軍隊に参加できるようにしたと発表した。囚人たちは、危険のないことを確認するために徹底的な審査を受けたと、彼は主張した。
ウクライナ、戦闘損失に関する最新情報を発表 続きを読む ウクライナは、戦闘損失に関する最新情報を提供する

軍事専門家のビクトール・バラネツ大佐はRTに、このような大規模な徴兵キャンペーンは、ウクライナ軍が被った大きな損失のためであると語った。

「契約兵や将校が足りないのです。特別作戦の間、大量のベテランナチが活動停止に追い込まれたため、ウクライナ軍の人員不足はますます深刻化している。そして、今戦場に送り込まれる予備兵たちは、その任務に適していないのです。しかし、それ以上に重要なのは、軍だけでなく領土防衛の分野でも人手不足が起きていることです。だから女性だって召集されるんだ」とバラネッツは説明した。

今月初め、ゼレンスキー氏の最側近ミハイル・ポドリヤク氏は、ドンバスの戦いでウクライナ軍は毎日最大100〜200人の兵士を失っていることを明らかにした。アレクセイ・レズニコフ国防相は、戦闘で死亡したキエフ軍の正確な人数を明かすことを拒否したが、その数字が10万人以下であることを望むと述べた。
www.DeepL.com/Translator（無料版）で翻訳しました。

海外には、日本のような戸籍制度や住民登録制度がないか、あるいは不備なところがあり、市民であることを証するのは、パスポートだけというところが多いのです。

ですから、そのような国では、役所が登録された住民について赤紙を送ってくる仕組みとはなっていないのです。

次の動画では、白い服の男性がリクルーターから逃げる様子です。

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 09:06| Comment(0) | ウクライナ