ずくなしの冷や水

2020年01月20日

ウクライナ機墜落はイランのミサイル 「ボーイングがまた落ちた」の恐れは別途ある

2020/1/11、この事故はイランが誤って撃墜したと発表しています。

2020年01月09日
ウクライナ機のテヘラン近郊墜落事故でこれまでの情報を集めましたが、当初のイラン当局者の見解が正しいようです。ミサイルで攻撃されればあんなに長く飛んでいられない。

何か特別な荷物が積まれていた可能性はありますが、窓の内側は黒焦げです。

※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2020/1/10のツイート
ウクライナ機墜落翌日の9日、イラン交通大臣モハマド・イスラミは、ボーイング737-800は、飛行機の不具合で墜落したと発表。大臣は、現場から回収されたブラックボックスは、ボーイング社やアメリカには渡さないと断言。エンジンがオーバーヒートしているのが不具合の証拠

米国などは、「ボーイングがまた落ちた」と言われ、ボーイングの機材の信頼性が議論になることを避けたい。ボーイングはカナダにも製造工程があるようです。

いずれにしてもボーイング機は事故が多い。

※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2020/1/10のツイート
1月8日、イスラエルの空港で火を噴くボーイング737-800! 同日、イランで墜落したウクライナ旅客機と同型機

※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2020/1/10のツイート
ボーイング737MAXは「猿に操られる道化師にデザインされている」! ボーイング社の従業員が不満を漏らしていたことが内部文書で明らかに。

ルフトハンザは、エアバスが多いです。アエロフロートも相対的にエアバスが多い。BAはボーイングが。

ボーイングの経営問題を背景として指摘する記事が出ていますが、ウクライナの外相が進路変更を確認したとのことで、これで決まりです。After Beginning to Crashというのは少しおかしいですが。「ボーイングがまた落ちた」

zerohedge Tue, 01/14/2020 - 13:05
30 Year Boeing Quality Manager Says "Fly Something Else", Refuses To Fly On 787 Dreamliner
by Tyler Durden

Slipping through the cracks of the Boeing controversy - which has taken on new twists and turns almost daily - were comments we recently uncovered by a former Boeing quality manager, who said last month that he thinks Boeing's problems aren't just limited to the 737.

John Barnett was a quality manager for Boeing for 30 years before he was transferred to South Carolina to work on the 787, according to Big Think.

It was there that a new leadership team who had previously worked on Boeing's military projects began overseeing work on the commercial airliner.

Barnett says that team lowered safety standards significantly. He stated: "They started pressuring us to not document defects, to work outside the procedures, to allow defective material to be installed without being corrected. They started bypassing procedures and not maintaining configurement control of airplanes, not maintaining control of non-conforming parts − they just wanted to get the planes pushed out the door and make the cash register ring."

SPUTNIK2020/1/10
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Confirms Boeing 737 Changed Course After Beginning to Crash
The Boeing 737 in Iran changed its course shortly after it began to crash, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said in a statement on Friday.

According to Prystaiko, the pilot of the crashed jet said in the last contact with the air traffic controller that the flight was going as normal.

The minister said that Kiev would request assistance from France in the investigation into the deadly incident, as the engines of the crashed aircraft were French-made.

The official added that as of now, there were not enough grounds to say that the jet crashed as a result of a terror attack.

He noted that Iran had given Ukrainian experts access to flight recorders and fragments of the Ukraine International Airlines jet.

"We got access to parts of the aircraft and the crash site... Now our team has gained access to the black boxes, we plan to begin the reconstruction of negotiations in the near future. We also got access to the records of air traffic controllers from the flight control centre at Tehran airport and our pilots", Prystaiko said at a briefing broadcast by the Ukrainian TV channel Nash.

FARSNEWS2020/1/10
US Claim of Ukrainian Boeing 737 Plane Being Hit by Missile Aims to Manipulate Stock Markets
TEHRAN (FNA)- The US allegations that a Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 aircraft crashed in Tehran after being hit by a missile has been assesses by analysts as an effort to manipulate the stock market; a measure that would both overshadow Trump’s failure in Iraq and save Boeing from bankruptcy.

On Wednesday, Boeing's shares plummeted by 2.3 percent ($3.4bn) after the Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 aircraft crashed in Tehran due to encountering a technical glitch.

On Thursday, the stock rose by 3 percent after unnamed Pentagon officials claimed that the Ukrainian passenger plane was most likely brought down by anti-aircraft missiles, and US President Donald Trump implicitly supported the claim. This has been read by analysists as an attempt to manipulate the stock market; a measure that would both overshadow Trump’s failure in Iraq and save Boeing from bankruptcy.

An article by Reuters on 12 March 2019 discussed the close ties between Boeing and Trump after the 737 MAX plane crashed in Ethiopia that killed 157 people.

The Ethiopian crash followed one of a 737 MAX five months ago in Indonesia that killed 189 people.

The article mentioned that Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg told Trump, an aviation enthusiast, that the aircraft was safe and did not need to be grounded. Later in the day, aviation officials repeated that US flights of the plane would continue.

Trump has used Boeing products and sites as a backdrop for major announcements over the course of his presidency, according to the article.

Trump has also put pressure on US allies to buy products from Boeing, the country’s second-largest defense contractor which received $104 billion in unclassified defense contracts between 2014 and 2018.

Boeing is also one of the largest US exporters to China, and Muilenburg told an aviation summit in Washington that purchases of its US-made aircraft by China could be part of a sweeping trade deal currently being negotiated, according to Reuters’ article.

Meanwhile, Iran’s civil aviation chief has rejected as “illogical rumors" reports that the Ukrainian plane that crashed south of the capital Tehran was hit by missiles.

“We can say that the airplane, considering the kind of the crash and the pilot’s efforts to return it to Imam Khomeini airport, didn’t explode in the air. So, the allegation that it was hit by missiles is totally ruled out,” the official noted.

A Boeing 737 plane carrying 180 passengers and crew, mostly Iranians, crashed shortly after takeoff from Imam Khomeini Airport in Tehran early Wednesday, leaving no survivors. Technical difficulties were cited as the cause of the crash.

The Ukrainian embassy in Iran also ruled out the possibility of an attack on the plane.

困るなあ、子供にボーイングに乗るなと言っても、そう簡単にはいかないだろうし。

※ fullmoon@tuneleconnaispa
https://nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/news/267773/2
何ですって!
イラン上空を飛んでいたウクライナ航空機、調子おかしかったのは、なんと米国による「サイバー攻撃」を受けたせいらしい。イランの誤爆したレーダーシステムもだ。
北朝鮮とおなじじゃ!米国って、絶句する。⇒

日刊ゲンダイ公開日:2020/01/19 06:00
撃墜されたウクライナ機はアメリカ軍用機の盾にされた?
イランの首都テヘランで発生したウクライナ国際航空機の撃墜事件。乗員、乗客176人全員が死亡した。
 イラン政府は当初、「技術的な事故」と主張していたが、事件発生後3日目の1月11日、イラン軍が「人為的なミスで意図せず攻撃した」と釈明。ロウハニ大統領も「許されない過ち。遺族に心から哀悼の意を捧げる」と声明を発表した。
 犠牲者に海外留学中のイランの若者が多く含まれていたこともあり、イラン国内では政府の対応を批判し、最高指導者ハメネイ師の責任を問う動きまで出始めた。“イランの政権交代”を意図するトランプ大統領は大喜びし、ツイッターで「イランの若者よ、自由のために立ち上がれ」と声援を送っている。
 それにしても、「民間の旅客機を敵の巡航ミサイルと勘違いした」という説明には腑に落ちない点が多々ある。テヘランからウクライナの首都キエフに飛び立ったばかりの旅客機を、敵の巡航ミサイルと誤認するのは通常「あり得ない話」だ。
 実は似たような事件が2018年9月にシリアでも起きていた。このとき撃墜されたのはロシア航空機。15人の命が奪われた。なぜロシア機が撃墜されたかというと、シリア上空でイスラエルの戦闘機2機がシリア軍のミサイル照射を浴びたため、その攻撃を避けるために偶然飛来したロシア機を「身代わりの盾」にしたのであった。
■サイバー攻撃で突如Uターン
 今回も同様で、テヘランの空港上空にアメリカの軍用機が数機飛行中であったことがペンタゴンのデータから読み取れる。これはウクライナの民間機が飛び立つのと同じ時間であった。しかも同時刻、イランのレーダーシステムはサイバー攻撃を受けて機能マヒに陥っていた。そのため民間機はイランの軍事施設に向かって飛来する戦闘機と誤認された可能性が高い。
 また、ウクライナ機のナビゲーションシステムもサイバー攻撃を受けており、機体が突如Uターンするという不可解な行動を取った。そのためイランの軍事基地に配備されていたロシア製の迎撃ミサイルが自動的に発射されたのである。
これらはロシアの軍事専門サイト「Avia・pro」の分析であり、結論として「アメリカ軍の関与が濃厚」とのこと。実際、過去にもアメリカは同様の手口で敵の航空機の飛行をマヒさせてきた事例がいくつもある。
 要はアメリカの軍用機がテヘラン上空で何らかの作戦を展開しようとしていたが、イラン軍のレーダー網に捕捉されたため、その攻撃を回避するのに、たまたま飛び立ってきたウクライナの民間機を盾に使った疑いがあるわけだ。
 いずれにせよ、アメリカにとってもイランにとっても、不都合な真実に違いない。おそらく真相は闇夜に消え去る運命だろう。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 23:05| Comment(0) | 社会・経済

格安SIMは使えるか

パソコン攻撃をかわす目的で、ロケットモバイルの神プランのSIMを据え置きルーターに入れて常用パソコンにつないで使っています。

日曜の深夜はほとんど使えない。サイトが呼び出せない。
ツイッターのポストが表示されない。時間がかかって表示された後も画像が全く表示されない。ニュースに組み込まれた動画は、見られない。

月曜の午前は、まだ使える。ブラウザのタブを一つだけに制限。
午後早い時間にユーチューブの音楽をかけてみた。画面を呼び出せて来生たかおの歌を聴くととぎれとぎれながら聞ける。

テキスト主体のサイトを見るなら時間帯にもよるが、使えるだろう。ただ、私の場合、何か事件があったり、事故があるとあちこち調べ回るので、とてもこれではやれない。

同報メールが送れなくなった。設定変更が必要と表示。thunderbirdのメーラーは動いている。

神プランと据え置き型ルーターの組み合わせでもう1組運用。

ただいまの空間線量率 変動状況のグラフを作るパソコンは、物置同然の部屋に移して常用パソコンとは別の据え置き型LTEルーターでデータをダウンロード、加工してグラフをアプロードしている。千葉県北西部3の空間線量率グラフもそれと同じ経路でアプロード。空間線量率リアルタイムグラフのキャプチャー画像はダウンロードのみだから動いているはず。

パソコンの近くで据え置き型LTEルーターを使っていると、パソコンの動きが少しおかしくなる。スリープ画面がいつの間にかアクティブになっていたり、起動時の表示サイトがいつもと違ったりする。Wifiは止めているので携帯向け電波だけ飛んでいる。

LTEルーターから30cmほど離れた場所。結構高い。この後ある電磁波低減策を講じてこの山は少し下がった。

この据え置き型LTEルーターを使い続ける場合は、屋外に出し、ケーブルを屋内に引いてルーターに接続して使うことにする。

インターネットの利用料金を安くするための検討結果は、ほとんど読者の興味をひかなかったらしい。その結果を利用するのが自分自身、まあ、そのために書いているのだが。

Saitoさんが教えてくれた「1,980円/月 月間データ容量無制限で送受信最大500kbps」が有力候補になるだろうか。

同報メールが送れないので関係者向け。新しい機器プロジェクターの実機テストで電磁波を測定しました。電磁波の面は心配はないと思います。リモコン付きです。私の部屋は狭いので使いづらいが、部屋が大きく、部屋を薄暗くしておくのが好きな人なら使えます。


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 21:32| Comment(1) | デジタル・インターネット

リビア和平会議 問題解決ではないものの和平に向けて新しい推進力を与える

2020/1/19、ベルリンで開かれたリビア和平会議で合意が得られた模様です。リビアの対立する2派のリーダーが和平会議に出席しなければならないように持っていくロシアの根回しがすごいです。

2019年12月15日 リビアの現実

2020年01月14日
リビアの停戦なるか ロシアの調停でサプライズ

RT2020/1/19
‘Detailed proposals for Libyans to take up’: Roadmap for settling every field of Libya war agreed in Berlin – Lavrov
A set of measures to overcome the ongoing Libyan crisis has been agreed in a wide-ranging document at Berlin talks, Russian FM Sergey Lavrov has said – and it is up to the Libyans themselves to take up the peace process baton.
平和プロセスのバトンを引き受けるのはリビア人自身です。

The document agreed at the conference covers several aspects that need work to resolve the Libyan crisis, Lavrov told journalists, following a meeting that lasted about five hours.

“It contains a chapter dedicated to security issues, which in particular includes measures to keep a stable ceasefire regime,” the minister said. Other proposals state that all of Libya’s sectarian groups, ethnic and political, should benefit from the nation’s natural resources.

A special chapter also focuses on humanitarian issues and the plight of Libyan civilians; there is a chapter regulating international support for Libya that should be lent under the UN auspices.
・・・トルコは最後の最後までプーチンに何か申し入れていました。

Russia insisted on inviting Libyan leaders

The Libya peace conference could have ended differently, had Russia not pushed for inviting the leaders of the two major Libyan warring factions to the meeting, the FM said.
ロシアがリビアの2つの主要な派閥の指導者を会議に招くことを強く押さなかったら会議の結果は違うものになっていた。 仮定法ですね。

It was due to our insistence that the conference organizers abandon their initial idea of convening the conference without the Libyan parties.

He also added that Moscow had advocated the idea of expanding the circle of the conference participants to include Libya’s regional neighbors, which was eventually accepted by other nations.

Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of the UN-backed Tripoli-based government, and General Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army, which controls most part of the country, took part in the summit alongside the leaders of Russia, Germany, France and the UK as well as the US Secretary of State.

Their participation was fundamental to the peace talks and helped all sides to make another step towards resolving the crisis, the summit host, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said Sunday.

“It was important that … Prime Minister Sarraj and General Haftar named their representatives for a military “five plus five” commission meeting,” she said, adding that this commission should become a “basis” for a sustainable ceasefire regime.
Long way ahead?

While Lavrov has hailed the results of the conference, he stressed that it’s a small step towards the resolution, when compared to where the parties were after earlier landmark talks in Moscow. He described the Berlin meeting as “useful” but said that the participants had, nonetheless, failed to make two rival Libyan leaders start a meaningful, sustainable dialogue, as the differences between the two are still “too big.”

The initial Moscow meeting, held last Monday, involved Haftar and Sarraj as well as Russian and Turkish foreign and defense ministers; it lasted more than six hours but did not end in a signed agreement. However, the fact that it brought together both factions in the Libyan civil war was a major achievement on its own, even though they still refused to sit in the same room, same as they did in Berlin.

Both the GNA and the LNA have for the most part respected the ceasefire called-for by Moscow and Ankara, prompting the leaders to be cautiously optimistic about the possibility of peace.

Now, the Berlin proposals agreed in the German capital will be added to a catalogue of ideas which “the international community could use to create conditions for the Libyan sides to come to the negotiation table and start reaching an agreement,” Lavrov said.

モスクワの会議でロシアは確かな手ごたえを感じ取り、それを国際社会で定着させるために、独、仏、英、国連、米を会議に参加させることにしたのです。それがリビアの対立するリーダーが和平プロセスを受け入れる大義名分、派閥内の説得材料になります。

仏、英、国連、米を会議に参加させるためには、ロシアが主催してロシアでやったのでは参加を拒否する国が出ます。このため会議のホストをメルケルに依頼した。

会議での合意内容の原案はすべてロシアが用意しています。ドイツはリビア和平のホスト国としての名誉を得ることができましたし、ロシアは「計画通りの」結果を得ることができました。

ハフターの本音、本意はラブロフが引き出しています。そして最後の押しはプーチン。エルドアンを抑えるのもプーチンです。エルドアンはすでにリビアに軍隊の先遣隊を派遣しています。トリポリの政府を支援すると言いながら、ハフターの軍を訓練しているそうです。

外国勢の関与を制限する方向で合意されていますからエルドアンはプーチンにいろいろ注文を付けたでしょう。

ベルリンでの会議に先立つモスクワの会議がロシアとトルコの共催の形で開催されたのは、ひとえにトルコの顔を立てるためです。エルドアンは、自らの存在をアピールするためにプーチンに付かず離れず、プーチンに場を作ってもらっています。

ポンペオが出席していたようですが、発言は伝えられていません。NATOのコメントも見当たりません。オバマ、ヒラリー、NATOの犯罪でリビアの人たちが被った苦難を解消する手初めにはなります。米国が妨害しなければ。

RT2020/1/19
‘Arms embargo & commitment to ceasefire’: Libya peace talks end on positive note in Berlin despite enduring disagreements

An arms embargo and a draft plan to work toward a lasting ceasefire to end Libya’s years-long civil war has been agreed on in Berlin during a day of intensive peace talks, drawing on the process kickstarted by Russia and Turkey.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres presented the results of the talks at a final press conference on Sunday evening.
メルケルと国連事務総長に花を持たせています。

Guterres told reporters that “all participants today committed to support the ceasefire,” while Merkel announced that the warring sides in Libya's conflict agreed that an arms embargo is necessary to reach a lasting ceasefire.

Italian PM Giuseppe Conte said Italian was willing to play a leading role in monitoring the Libya peace accord. Italy is "absolutely available to be on the frontline" when it comes to monitoring the peace, he told reporters, although whether or not the warring sides agree to that is still unclear.

The conference in Berlin was tasked with reaching a lasting ceasefire between Prime Minister of the UN-backed Tripoli-based GNA, Fayez al-Sarraj, and Haftar, whose forces have been closing in on Tripoli in recent months.

Neither Haftar nor al-Sarraj were present in the room for the final press conference and Merkel said two men did not meet each other face-to-face during talks earlier either, with the chancellor hosting the rivals for separate discussions.

Merkel said the discussion in Berlin “will not solve all of the problems of Libya” but the talks were intended to “give new impetus” to the peace process. Libya descended into violence and chaos following the NATO's 2011 military intervention to oust longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Guterres added that he was very worried that several of Libya’s oil ports and an oilfield had been shutdown after Haftar's forces shut off production, a move which could badly impact the country's economy.

Merkel stressed that it is crucial that the arms embargo holds so that the truce can hold properly. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, both allies of rival PM General Khalifa Haftar, have been providing weapons to the Libyan National Army (LNA), while Turkey has sent military instructors to the forces of Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) while threatening boots on the ground.

The peace conference in Berlin comes on the heels of earlier talks in Moscow, at which the leaders of the two warring Libyan parties agreed to discuss a ceasefire, a major development. That initial meeting, which involved Haftar and Saraj as well as Russian and Turkish foreign and defense ministers, lasted more than six hours but did not end in a signed agreement.

However, both the GNA and the LNA have for the most part respected the ceasefire called-for by Moscow and Ankara, prompting the leaders to be cautiously optimistic about the possibility of peace.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 17:00| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

北大公共政策大学院は覚せい剤密輸で逮捕された暴徒集団のリーダーを研究員に任命

共同通信社 2020/1/17 11:01 (JST)
香港デモ率いた周庭さん研究員に
北大公共政策大学院で
 香港の大規模民主化デモ「雨傘運動」を率いた周庭さん(23)が北大公共政策大学院のフェロー(研究員)に就任していたことが17日、分かった。周さんが16日、ツイッターで明らかにした。
 同大学院によると、本年度より教育活動に携わる無給のフェロー制度を導入しており、周さんは昨年10月1日に大学院の要請を受けグローカルフェローに就任。大学院の研究・教育事業に協力する。任期は今年3月末まで。



・・・引用終わり・・・

北大は、2019/10/1前に就任要請をしたんですね。ところが・・・

2019/11/19、関西空港の税関が、国際宅配貨物のボードゲームの底に隠された覚せい剤約2.6kg、末端価格にして1億5500万円分を摘発しました。民泊施設でこれを受け取った中国籍の程冠熹が逮捕され、収容され、起訴もされているようです。事件としては極めて単純です。

【大阪税関】アメリカ合衆国来航空貨物を利用した大量覚醒剤密輸入事犯を摘発!!(令和元年11月25日発表)
 大阪税関関西空港税関支署は、令和元年10月20日、アメリカ合衆国から国際宅配貨物を利用し、大量の覚醒剤を密輸入しようとした事犯について、関税法違反犯則事件として摘発した。 この件については、大阪府警察本部刑事部薬物対策課及び大阪府関西空港警察署と共同調査の上、同年11月20日、関税法違反容疑にて大阪地方検察庁に告発した 。
【犯則物件】
  ・覚醒剤であるフェニルメチルアミノプロパン塩酸塩 合計2,584.0グラム

※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2019/12/9のツイート
香港暴徒の程冠熹被告(22)が覚せい剤を、アメリカから日本に密輸しようとし逮捕起訴された件を、なぜ日本のメディアは必死で削除している?

※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の2019/12/9のツイート
程冠熹はCIAの指示で、覚せい剤を密輸しようとした? これ、まともに捜査したらCIAの犯罪に行き着く? だから、メディアが米CIAの指示で一斉に削除? 覚せい剤密輸で起訴しながら、無罪放免にでもする気? 覚せい剤関連のニュースを、全面的に削除するなんて異様だ!

次も北大です。

2019年11月15日
中国で拘束の北大教授解放
共同2019/11/15 18:35 (JST)
中国で拘束の北大教授解放、帰国
健康問題なし、菅氏が発表
菅義偉官房長官は15日の記者会見で、中国当局に9月から拘束されていた北海道大の40代の男性教授が解放されたと発表した。同日、日本に帰国した。健康上の問題はないという。中国外務省によると、北大教授は岩谷將氏で、反スパイ法などに違反したものの、保釈したと明らかにした。
 菅氏は「政府としてありとあらゆる機会に中国側に働き掛けてきた」と強調。解放の理由について「政府としては具体的には承知していない」と述べるにとどめた。
 中国外務省は、岩谷教授について国家機密に触れる資料を収集した疑いで調べたと明らかにした。教授は容疑を認め、中国当局は訓戒処分を行ったとしている。

・・・引用終わり・・・

「大学の経営上、効率が悪い」という意味の分からぬ理由でここ十年以上毎年、文系の各研究室の予算は絶え間なく削られてきたのですが、その結果、

名門国立大学の北海道大学、筑波大学などでは日本史、東洋史などの各研究室の専任教員の人数が、20年前の三分の一(!)に減らされました。文学・哲学・考古学など、みな五十歩百歩であるようです。」のだそうです。

北大にはスラブ研究センターなるものもありましたが、今は、中国、香港研究センターもできている? 北海道大学は、CIAエージェント養成大学になっている? 金がなければなんでもやらざるを得ませんよね。しかたがないかも。でも、子供を通わせるのは止めたほうが良い。テロリストかスパイしか就職先がない。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 16:13| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

エルドアンの狙いは別として、ロシアが仲介の主役に

RT2020/1/16
Erdogan sending Turkish troops to Libya ahead of Berlin peace talks
Turkey is sending troops to Libya to ensure the stability of the UN-backed government in Tripoli, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced. The move comes ahead of a Berlin summit on the security situation in the country.

Ankara has already deployed forces to train troops loyal to the Government of National Accord (GNA), as part of a security cooperation agreement between the two countries.

Erdogan also said that, as part of a maritime agreement, it would no longer be possible for other states to conduct oil exploration and drilling off the coast of Libya without the approval of Ankara and Tripoli.

Turkey has vowed to support the GNA’s months-long fight against Libyan militia leader Khalifa Haftar. Erdogan has vowed to teach "putschist" Haftar a “lesson” if he does not cease his military campaign against the UN-backed government. The commander left a Moscow summit aimed at brokering a ceasefire in Libya, stalling progress that had been made toward ending the conflict.

Erdogan said at the start of January that Turkish troops would begin a gradual deployment to the North African nation, in order to ensure “coordination and stability” in the war-torn country.

Despite the diplomatic setbacks, Ankara signaled that it was too early to say that a ceasefire deal with Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) had collapsed.

The Turkish president's announcement comes before he is due to meet leaders from Germany, Russia, Britain and Italy on Sunday to discuss the conflict. The summit hosted by Moscow to discuss a possible ceasefire was hailed by major world actors as a necessary step toward achieving peace and stability in Libya.

RT2020/1/20 良い記事です。
Berlin peace talks: In war-torn Libya, can intl community help finish what Russia & Turkey started?
Talks in Berlin between warring Libyan factions could finally deliver a lasting ceasefire after a decade of chaos ushered in by NATO regime change there. Could the mediation efforts, kick-started by Moscow and Ankara, bear fruit?

All eyes in Europe and beyond are set on Berlin, as PM Fayez al-Sarraj of the Government of National Accord (GNA) and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar of the Libyan National Army (LNA) arrive on Sunday for peace talks hosted by Germany and attended by representatives from 11 countries, including Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The GNA has been internationally recognized since 2015, but Haftar’s troops now control the vast majority of Libya, with the exception of the capital, Tripoli, and surrounding areas. Both emerged from the ashes of NATO’s 2011 intervention, which backed Islamist militants from Benghazi seeking to overthrow the government of Muammar Gaddafi. But after NATO jets bombed Gaddafi’s forces and the rebels surrounded and murdered him, the militants turned on each other, and Libya was plunged into chaos and civil war.

The consequences of the collapse weren’t limited to the Libyans. Migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa used the anarchy to stream across the Mediterranean to Europe, even at the risk of warlords capturing them for open-air slave markets in Libya and of crowded vessels drowning people en masse on the way. The US was affected as well, when militants attacked its consulate in Benghazi in September 2012, killing four Americans, including an ambassador. Then, Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) terrorists popped up, laying claim to the city of Sirte.

Eventually, Haftar’s army arose in the east, loyal to the legislature in Tobruk that was challenging the legitimacy of the GNA. In 2016, he launched a campaign to retake the country from warlords. It was largely completed by April 2019, whereupon he turned his sights from the ruined country on to Tripoli.

Fast forward to 2020, and the conflict has reached its boiling point. Several world nations have declared support for one of the opposing sides, and Turkey in particular is ready to commit its troops to the GNA, sending its military specialists to train Haftar’s rivals. But Ankara is not alone, with Greece now threatening to send a “force” of its own to back up Haftar against Turkey. It’s an open question as to what Egypt and the Gulf monarchies – which have been backing the ex-Gaddafi general for years – would do if a proxy war did break out.

Moscow’s push for peace

While Europe has for years been alarmed about the developments, being constantly reminded about the consequences of the intervention, the same cannot be said about those across the ocean. Washington suddenly became interested in Libya again only when Haftar’s conquest of Tripoli appeared imminent, even though that offensive apparently became bogged down in the intervening months. Reports claimed that President Donald Trump called Haftar – a Libya-US citizen – to support his campaign and sent diplomats to reach out to him. Whatever diplomacy was involved, it got nowhere, while the State Department became preoccupied with blaming the alleged “destabilizing Russian presence” for Libya’s woes.

The actual push for peace came from Moscow and Ankara, which, despite not seeing eye to eye on conflicts in the Middle East, have clearly become close enough to work out common ground.

The effort culminated with a conference in Moscow, in which foreign ministers Sergey Lavrov and Mevlut Cavusoglu mediated political talks between al-Sarraj and Haftar, while defense ministers Sergey Shoigu and Hulusi Akar handled the military side of things.

The event did not result in a signed ceasefire agreement, but marked a significant development. Just a week earlier, Haftar had outright rejected a joint ceasefire call from Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, going so far as to declare jihad against Turkish forces sent to Libya to prop up the GNA. Attempts by Italy to mediate between the two factions likewise came to naught, as al-Sarraj refused the invitation when he found out Haftar would be in Rome.

Now, German officials are confident that a deal can be reached when both leaders sit down in Berlin, with Foreign Minister Heiko Maas publicly saying that Haftar is “in principle” ready to commit to a ceasefire.

Lavrov has expressed cautious optimism, saying that he hopes “everything goes as planned” in Berlin. He did note on Friday that Haftar and al-Sarraj “don’t even want to be in the same room,” and urged both leaders not to “repeat their previous mistakes and don’t begin putting forward additional conditions, and blaming each other.”

But it’s not just the GNA, the LNA, Moscow and Ankara on which the prospect of peace depends. The warring sides will have to take up the job of negotiating the plan with factions on the ground.

It’s also the political will of Western governments, some of which are clearly wary of Russian diplomacy taking center stage, that the leaders will have to take into account.

After the US tested the waters by reaching out to Haftar before backing off, Russia is probably the only nation that commands enough respect from both factions to make it an effective mediator, Grigory Lukyanov, a senior lecturer at the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics, told RT. Putin taking part in the Berlin talks is undoubtedly a strong signal that Moscow is serious about finishing the business and bringing about a lasting peace, including by working with key player Turkey.

It remains to be seen whether Russia’s central role in solving this crisis is recognized and political wisdom prevails over jealousy and mistrust in Berlin on Sunday.

RT2020/1/20
The Libyan peace talks in Berlin were yet to begin, but Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan already voiced their positions on the conflict, Erdogan speaking against Haftar and Putin calling for dialogue.

As the two presidents met ahead of the Sunday conference, Erdogan was direct in showing his animosity towards Libya’s Khalifa Haftar, whose forces have been closing in on the UN-backed government in Tripoli.

“Haftar has proven himself to be in favor of a military solution [to the conflict]. Here in Berlin, the ceasefire must be confirmed. Haftar’s aggressive behavior must be stopped so the political process and settlement can happen,” Erdogan said.

Эрдоган начал встречу в Берлине с традиционного приветствия: "Мой дорогой друг!" pic.twitter.com/UvCJ7L9R0M
− Путин говорит (@CzarSays) January 19, 2020

Putin in turn recalled how, during their Istanbul meeting on January 8, the two had “taken a very good step by calling on the warring parties in Libya to end hostilities.”

Despite several violations of the ceasefire, “both sides have listened to our call and have ended large-scale military actions,” Putin said.

We don’t lose hope that the dialogue will continue, as we seek to resolve the conflict [in Libya].

Erdogan also noted that Turkey and Russia have enjoyed "very good" relations lately, and sent an obvious signal to some Western nations.

"Despite the pressure that we faced, we have decisively implemented the deal for the S-400s, without compromising our national interests," the Turkish leader said.

The US has repeatedly tried to sway Ankara into scrapping the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense missile systems, but Turkey refused to do so.

Some 11 countries, including Russia, Turkey, Britain, France, Germany, and the US, and several international organizations attended the event aimed at reaching a lasting ceasefire between Haftar and his rival Fayez al-Sarraj, the prime minister of the UN-backed Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA).
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 00:44| Comment(0) | 国際・政治