ずくなしの冷や水

2020年01月07日

「我々は際限のない戦争を阻止しようとしている」イラク首相 米国大使に語る

RT2020/1/6
‘We are trying to prevent open war,’ Iraqi PM tells US ambassador as tensions mount
「我々は際限のない戦争を阻止しようとしている」イラク首相は緊張が高まる中、米国大使に語る

Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi has told US ambassador Matthew Tueller that Baghdad is doing all it can to prevent “descent into open war” as tensions flare over the US killing of top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani.

Speaking at a meeting with Tueller in the Iraqi capital on Monday, Abdul-Mahdi said his government's policy has “always been to have relations with all sides.” He said Iraq wants to build its relations with other countries on “cooperation, mutual respect, and protection of foreign sovereignty,” adding that a strong Iraqi government is in “everyone's interest” in the region.

The PM also "stressed the importance of mutual cooperation" on implementing foreign troop withdrawal, according to a statement released by his office.

The meeting comes after US President Donald Trump warned Iraq that it should brace for “very big” sanctions “like they've never seen before.”

That warning followed the passing of a non-binding resolution in the Iraqi parliament on Sunday asking the government to expel foreign troops by canceling a request for military assistance from the US-led coalition. On Monday, Abdul-Mahdi said the US and Iraq must also work together to implement the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country.

Trump has claimed the US will not leave Iraq unless Baghdad “pays it back” for the “extraordinarily expensive” air base which it built there.

Tensions have mounted between Washington and Baghdad since the drone strike which killed Soleimani along with several Iraqi militia leaders last week, provoking rage in Tehran and the promise of revenge against the US.

The anger in Iraq, however, has mostly been over the fact that the US strike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a high-ranking Iraqi general, Saad Al-Muttalibi, a member of Baghdad Security Committee, told RT.

Asked about Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Iraq, Al-Muttalibi said Iraqis "have to be worried" and can't trust Trump's "good intentions." If the US does impose sanctions, Iraq will need to look for "more suitable partners" than those who "come to Iraq, kill Iraqi citizens, use Iraqi airspace and Iraq ground to kill Iraqi officials," he said.

Speaking about the Iraqi parliament's resolution asking the government to expel foreign forces, he warned that it's "very important for the Americans to pull out [of Iraq]" because "we don't want to be drawn into a war between Iran and America on Iraqi soil."
政府に外国軍を追放するよう求めるイラク議会の決議について、彼は「アメリカがイラクから撤退することは非常に重要だ」と警告した。なぜなら、「我々はイラクの土地でイランとアメリカの間の戦争に引き込まれたくないからだ」
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 11:22| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

米軍がイラクから退去 本当か?

RT2020/1/6
US coalition to leave Iraq ‘in due deference to sovereignty’ – general
米国連合軍が主権を正当に尊重してイラクから退去へ−米将軍

Citing a vote in the Iraqi parliament, the head of US forces in Iraq has informed the government in Baghdad that the US-led coalition will be leaving the country, in a letter that contradicts President Trump's earlier statements.
イラクの米軍の長は、バグダッドの政府に、イラク議会での投票を引用して、米国主導の連合軍がトランプ大統領のこれに先立つ声明と矛盾する内容の手紙で、イラクを去ることになると伝えました。

“In due deference to the sovereignty” of Iraq, the Combined Joint Task Force Iraq will be “repositioning forces over the course of the coming days and weeks to prepare for onward movement,” Marine General William H. Seely III wrote in a letter to the Iraqi Defense Ministry on Monday, which has surfaced online.
イラクの「主権を正当に尊重して」、統合合同タスクフォースイラクは「今後の移動に備えるために今後数日および数週間にわたって部隊を再配置する」とウィリアム・シーリー三世海軍大将は月曜日にイラク国防省に充てた手紙に書いた。これはネット上に流れました。(出所不明のままです)

“We respect your sovereign decision to order our departure,” Seely wrote, explaining that the process will involve increased helicopter traffic into and out of Baghdad’s “green zone,” mainly during the night-time, with the Coalition seeking to “minimize and mitigate” disturbances to civilians.
シーリーは、我々は我々の退去を命ずる貴国の主権に基づく決定を尊重すると書き、このプロセスには主に夜間にバグダッドの「グリーンゾーン」を出入りするヘリコプターの交通量が増えることを説明し、連合軍は民間人への迷惑を「最小化し緩和」するように努めると付け加えた。

There was initially some confusion about the letter's authenticity, with the Pentagon declining to confirm it was real However, US Army public affairs officer Rick Dickson stated shortly after the news broke that the letter is "official and accurate."

The Iraqi parliament adopted a resolution on Sunday seeking to “end the presence of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil,” prompted by last week’s US drone strike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and a number of Iraqi Shia militia officials at the Baghdad International Airport.

US President Donald Trump responded by threatening sanctions and saying the US will not leave until the Iraqis “pay us back” for an airbase that he said cost billions of dollars to build.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo likewise dismissed the non-binding resolution, saying that he was “confident that the Iraqi people want the United States to continue to be there to fight the counterterror campaign.”

The US-led coalition forces were sent to Iraq in 2014, to help the government in Baghdad confront Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) terrorists that had taken a significant portion of Iraqi territory, all of which has since been liberated.
米国主導の連合軍は2014年にイラクに派遣され、バグダッドの政府がイラク領土のかなりの部分を占領していたイスラム国家(IS、以前はISIS)のテロリストと戦うことを支援し、その領土のすべてが解放されています。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 09:28| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

ソレイマニ暗殺 なぜ今なのだろう

ソレイマニの乗った車が空爆されている時のドローン画像のようですが、執拗に爆撃しています。出所がわかりませんが、この動画は、米軍が撮影したものですよね。これまで米軍がこのような動画を公開したことは、あまり記憶にないです。ずさんなじゅうたん爆撃で市民に多数の被害者を出していました。最近では、シリア国境でのハッシュドアルシャアビの基地を攻撃した際の画像が公開されていますが。
https://twitter.com/i/status/1214169296198389760

いくつか疑問があるんですよね。
@ 米軍が自らの攻撃の模様を公開するようになった。なぜ?

A ソレイマニはサウジとの緊張緩和の仲介の労を取ったアブドゥル・マフディ首相にイランの回答を届ける途中だったとされています。
これは外交問題と考えられますから、本来ザリフの仕事です。ところがイランの情報機関とされるカッズの司令官が回答を携えていった。なぜ?

米軍は、10年近く前からソレイマニの暗殺を企んでいたとされます。2017/12、CIAの長官(ポンペオですね)がデリゾールの前線にいるソレイマニに手紙を送ったが、ソレイマニは受け取らなかったとされています。手紙には、米国の利益を損なうなとの趣旨が書かれていたとも言われています。

ソレイマニは、サウジのクラウンプリンスMBSが実父を殺してでも早く王座につきたがっているとの発言をしています。カッズが情報機関を兼ねているとすれば、そんな情報も入ってもおかしくありません。

ソレイマニは、戦闘の実践でも卓越した能力があったし、それ以上に中東の湾岸諸国の事情に通じ、各国との衣の下に鎧が見える交渉でも強さを発揮したのではないかと思います。

各国それぞれのグループの武力行使の能力もよく知っていた。クルドがキルクークで反乱を起こした時もソレイマニが現地本部に入っていました。

とにかくソレイマニがいると、米国やイスラエルが思うようにできない。ISISも結局敗退してしまった。米国の中東政策がことごとく失敗に帰する。ISIS 2.0も視野に入れて、失地を挽回しようとしているのに、近代兵器・作戦分野ではロシア、在来戦法分野、インテリジェンスの面ではイラン(のソレイマニ)に妨害され続けるのは、我慢ができない。

それでキルクークの偽旗事件を口実にハッシュドアルシャアビの基地を攻撃、そして、米国大使館への抗議行動への報復としてハッシュドアルシャアビの司令官を攻撃、あわせてソレイマニも殺害というシナリオだったのではないかと思われます。

今やらなければならない理由は、何かあるはずです。ISISテロリストの移動、温存策が一つあります。対イラン攻撃の準備もあります。イランが米国の攻撃を受けた際にイラン周辺の米軍駐留基地をミサイル攻撃するというのは、周辺国が戦乱に巻き込まれたくないと米軍に自重を促しますから非常に有効な戦略です。

そういう知恵が出てくる優秀な戦略家がいるとすれば、それは暗殺しておく必要がある。米国の中東政策、軍事行動は手詰まりです。

B 2に関連しますが、ソレイマニが特使になったのは、アブドゥル・マフディ首相に情勢を、状況をレクチャーするためだったのではないでしょうか。イラクの情報機関はそんなに優秀ではないし、米軍の影響もある。正しい判断に欠かせない真の情報は、ソレイマニから直接聞くのが最もよい。マフディ首相はそう考えていたでしょう。米軍との摩擦が強まっており、マフディが辞任表明を強いられた暴動の背後にも米国がいました。

C 1/3にソレイマニがマフディ首相と会って何を伝えようとしていたのか。米軍は伝えさせたくない何かがあったのか。それゆえ、空港近くで暗殺を強行したのか。

D マフディ首相はソレイマニを自分が招いたと述べています。そしてそのためにバクダッドでソレイマニが暗殺された。マフディがまともな人間であれば、当然強い責任を感じます。



マフディは、誠実な人間なのではないでしょうか。この顔を見れば、彼がどれほどの責任感と懊悩に苦しめられているかはわかります。米軍は退去させる。この一心で動きを続けそうに思います。その先には今度はマフディの暗殺が待っているかもしれませんが。


タイミングよく次の記事が流れましたが、ポンペオがソレイマニを殺したがっていたということだけです。上に書いたところを修正しなければならない材料は出ていません。
SPUTNIK2020/1/6
Pompeo Sought to 'Take Out' Soleimani After Iran's Downing of US Spy Drone - Reports
The US assassination of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, alongside other senior members of the Iraqi militia, has stoked tensions in the Middle East and reverberated throughout the world, sparking fears of full-scale war, as Washington and Iran engage in rhetoric laden with threats.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was instrumental in getting US President Donald Trump to sign off on the air strikes that killed top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani, according to US officials cited by The Washington Post.

After large protests erupted outside the US Embassy in Baghdad at the end of December, with demonstrators hurling Molotov cocktails at the compound, Mike Pompeo discussed the new security threat to his diplomats in phone calls with Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Matthew Tueller, the US ambassador to Iraq. Pompeo was also said to have spoken with President Donald Trump multiple times throughout the week.

On 29 December, Pompeo, Esper and Milley reportedly traveled to the president’s private club in Florida, where the two defense officials offered possible option responses to Iranian aggression, including the targeted killing of Soleimani, senior US officials said.

Trump’s decision to target Soleimani came as a surprise and even shock to some officials briefed on his decision, writes the outlet.

Trump’s decision to approve the killing of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) Al Quds commander Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani was the culmination of determined urging by Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence, the officials are cited as saying on condition of anonymity.

A significant factor cited was the “lockstep” coordination for the operation between Pompeo and Esper, both graduates in the same class at the US Military Academy, who deliberated ahead of the briefing with Trump.

Pence was claimed to have also endorsed the decision, while not attending the meeting in Florida.

“Taking out Soleimani would not have happened under [former secretary of defense Jim] Mattis. Mattis was opposed to all of this. It’s not a hit on Mattis, it’s just his predisposition. Milley and Esper are different. Now you’ve got a cohesive national security team and you’ve got a secretary of state and defense secretary who’ve known each other their whole adult lives,” the official is quoted as saying.

Pompeo reportedly first spoke with Donald Trump about killing Soleimani months ago, when the US President declined to retaliate militarily against Iran after the downing of a US surveillance drone that Tehran claimed violated its airspace - a fact Washington had denied. Tensions between Iran and the United States nearly escalated into a dangerous direct confrontation as President Donald Trump approved airstrikes against Tehran following the incident, but abruptly backtracked on his decision.

That decision by the President, according to one cited official, left Pompeo “morose.”

A reshuffle of Trump’s national security team, and concerns lest he be viewed as hesitant in the face of Iranian aggression, the sources claim, offered Pompeo an opportunity to press ahead with the action he had been advocating. The officials are quoted as referring to Pompeo’s fixation on Iran that spans 10 years of government service from Congress to the CIA to the State Department.

In the days since the strike, Pompeo has been speaking to allies and making the public case for the operation.

“We took a bad guy off the battlefield. We made the right decision... I’m proud of the effort that President Trump undertook," Pompeo told CNN.

Critics inside and outside the administration have questioned Pompeo’s justification for the strike based on his claims that “dozens if not hundreds” of American lives were at risk.

Pressed on Sunday about the imminent nature of the threats, Pompeo dismissed the questions.

“If you’re an American in the region, days and weeks − this is not something that’s relevant,” Pompeo told CNN.

In the early hours of Friday, 3 January, Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of an Iraqi Shia militia group, were struck by a US drone near Baghdad International Airport. Both were blamed by Washington for organising demonstrations at the US Embassy in Baghdad on 31 December.

Washington justified the assassination by claiming that Soleimani was plotting sabotage against US assets in the Middle East. However, no proof of the alleged plot was provided.

As Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned that Tehran would take revenge for what it views to be a heinous crime, US President Donald Trump said that Washington has identified 52 further Iranian targets, including those important for the Iranian culture, that would be struck if Tehran attacks US individuals or assets.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 00:43| Comment(0) | 国際・政治