ずくなしの冷や水

2019年08月09日

別人がアルバグダーディとして登場しすぐに後継者指名 あまりにお粗末なダリウッド劇

よくわかりません。アルバグダーディだとして別人が登場。伝えられた脊髄の負傷などを考え併せるととても元気そうでした。それなのに3か月後に後継者指名。しかも後継者とされる者は、米国が護衛する刑務所に入っている人物だと。ならば確かに"USA Have Chosen a New Leader for ISIS"ということになります。新しいリーダーは刑務所の中から指揮をとる? 米軍はこんな子供だましが通じると思っている?
みんな作り話。もう辻褄など合うわけがない。
中東に派遣されてテロリストと協働する米軍兵士は、指揮官も含めて精神的に破綻しますね。異常をきたすのは無理もない。

2019年05月01日
アル・バクダーディはロシアの空爆で死んでいた



FARSNEWS2019/8/8
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi Adopts Iraqi ISIL Commander as Successor
The Arabic-language Baghdad al-Youm news website affiliated to the ISIL quoted Fazel Abu Raqif, an Iraqi security expert, as saying that Abdollah Qardash, one of the inmates in Bouka prison near the town of Um al-Qasr in Iraq, which was protected by the US, and the Mufti of al-Qaeda, was adopted as al-Baghdadi's successor.

He added that Qardash was one of the dangerous commanders close to Baghdadi, noting that he was the first person who joined the ISIL leader after Mosul's collapse.

His remarks came as reports said late in July that al-Baghdadi was hiding in Syria after he was paralyzed in Iraq’s recent anti-terror operations.

“Al-Baghdadi together with a number of his Arab and foreign aides are presently in Syria as he is feeling too much danger after several ISIL commanders were killed in Iraqi Army’s military operations on ISIL’s hideouts in Western Iraq,” Head of Iraq’s Intelligence Forces Abu Ali al-Basri told the Arabic-language al-Sabah newspaper.

He noted that al-Baghdadi was taken a defensive position under threat by Iraq’s intelligence forces, escaping battle with the Syrian and Iraqi armies.

Al-Basri noted that al-Baghdadi was still very much popular among his foreign, Arab and Iraqi militants, and said that the ISIL ringleader is now replacing some his commanders after he lost a number of his militants and aides in a joint military operation by the Iraqi intelligence forces and the Syrian Army.

He reiterated that al-Baghdadi had been paralyzed after he sustained a spinal cord injury in the Iraqi forces’ attack on a meeting between him and his aides in al-Hojin region before the ISIL left the region in 2018.

In a relevant development in early June, the Iraqi sources reported that al-Baghdadi was hiding in the Western deserts of al-Anbar province at the border with Syria.

Friends of Syria ~ revealing the truth
USA Have Chosen a New Leader for ISIS
 
by Sonja van den Ende
The US, as part of the new propaganda, to suggest ISIS is now much stronger, has now picked a new so-called leader for ISIS (the don’t say what happened to Abu-Bakr-al-Bagdadi, a.k.a. Shimon Elliot); The propaganda ; Abdollah Qardash, one of the inmates in Camp Buka of Shimon Elliot near the town of Um al-Qasr in Iraq, which was protected by the US, was adopted as al-Baghdadi’s successor.

They say Qardash was one of the dangerous commanders close to Baghdadi, noting that he was the first person who joined the ISIL leader after Mosul’s collapse. A photograph published service showed McCain in deep discussion with leaders of the Free Syrian Army, some of whom also displayed the black Al-Qaeda flag of the al-Nusra Front.

Some doubt arose about the identity of one of these men. I wrote later that he was actually Daesh’s future Caliph (Thierry Meyssan wrote and like me several others), which the Senator’s spokesperson vehemently denied . The spokesperson insisted that the theory was absurd, since Daesh had several times made death threats against the Senator. But shortly afterwards, with no worries about contradicting himself, John McCain declared on TV that he knew the leaders of Daesh personally, and was “in permanent contact with them”.

Supposedly he entertained no illusions about the Islamists, but he could brag that he had learned a thing or two in Vietnam, and was supporting them against “Bashar’s régime” out of strategic necessity. So even before the events in Syria began, McCain had organised their weapons supply from Lebanon, where he chose the village of Arsal as a rear base of operations. His fact-finding tour of jihadist Syria would help in planning Daesh’s future operations.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 22:28| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

イランは自らが戦争に巻き込まれる恐れにおびえる湾岸諸国の心理を巧みに突いている

米国の進めるイラン包囲網が進みません。イランに対して対決姿勢が強いのは、サウジ、UAE、イスラエルですが、UAEはおそらくは石油密輸船問題やドローン発進基地の問題も背景となったのか、イランと平和交渉を始めて一定の取り決めを行ったようです。

次にイランが脅しを強めているのはイスラエルです。イスラエルは米国の有志連合に情報面で協力すると述べました。イスラエルのイランに対する恐怖は半端でなくシリア国内のイラン兵士の所在地とみる基地を何度もミサイルで攻撃しています。ミサイルの打ち合いになれば何十発ものミサイルが同時に飛んできてテルアビブは壊滅必至です。
イスラエルはへたにイラン近海に艦船は出せません。飛んで火にいる夏の虫でしょう。
イランはサウジにはまだ名指しの威嚇が少ないです。戦力としても大したものではないとみている? そんな感じがします。サウジは国内の軍事基地に米軍兵士の派遣を求めました。

湾岸地域の諸国を見ると有志連合にクェートは慎重、カタール、オマーンはイランに近いです。パキスタンもイランに接近しています。インドはインド洋に自国艦船の派遣を表明しました。



一方、欧州ではドイツが不参加を表明、英国だけが先走っています。欧州版有志連合は自然消滅でしょうか。

各国は、有志連合と距離を置いたほうが自国商戦の安全につながると考えているのです。破壊工作を行っているのは米国やイスラエネルであることは各国が知っています。

ミサイルを1発でも打ち込んでみろ、お前の子分を全滅にしてやるからな、と脅して子分から親分に慎重になるよう働きかけさせるのです。戦略としては当然ですよね。

FARSNEWS2019/8/9
IRGC Commander: Any New War Poses Major Threat to Israel
TEHRAN (FNA)- Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami warned that any new war in the region will be a major threat to Israel, describing the issue as a main source of concern for the US.

"We are now in a full-scale war with the big powers," General Salami said, addressing a meeting in the Western city of Kermanshah on Thursday.

He underlined that Washington has no appetite for confrontation against Iran as it knows that "a new war will put the Zionist regime under a full-scale threat".

In relevant remarks on Wednesday, General Salami underlined the importance of establishment of security along the country's borders, saying that the Iranian Armed Forces were ready to respond to any attack.

"Today, the security of borders is the Armed Forces' redline," General Salami said in Kermanshah.

"Under any type of condition, the military forces are prepared to defend the borders and territories of our dear country and they will give a firm response to any aggression," he added.

Also, last month, General Salami had warned Tehran’s adversaries in the Persian Gulf that the country’s armed forces would immediately shift from defensive pose to an offensive one should any miscalculated move be made against Iran.

“As far as the strategy is concerned, we act defensively, meaning that we will not be the ones to start or initiate any war,” Major General Salami said.


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 21:52| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

小名浜の湿度は上がっている

原資料 気象庁過去の気象データ
http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/view/daily_s1.php?prec_no=36&block_no=47598&year=2009&month=07&day=&view=p1

















来年はさらに上がりそうですね。大気中にトリチウム水が増えている? 大芋沢とその沖合であれだけ蒸気が上がっているんですから湿度が上がって当然ですよね。

他の観測地点も取って調べなければなりませんし、地球規模の変化の一環なのかもしれませんが、湿度が上がっているなら、日本の夏が過ごしにくくなっていることはありうる。

福島第一原発事故の影響は計り知れないものがあります。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 16:44| Comment(0) | 福島原発事故

これ なんですかね 今年の異例な高温と湿度?

星1️ぺ⃝っ⃝こ⃝@pecko178氏の2019/8/8のツイート
7月に入ってから、下痢の患者が増えた。
食思なし、水分補給もあまり出来ず。
患者で共通してるものは何もない。
仕事をしてる人(職種いろいろ)、主婦、学生。普通2〜3回通院して点滴と内服で改善されていくのに。そして夜間に体調悪化し救急搬送して入院。
何なんだ、いったい?

・・・・・・

今年の異例な高温と湿度、それに人々の免疫機能の低下が疑われます。

食べ物は、必ずしっかり加熱してから。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:04| Comment(0) | 福島原発事故

フロリダの海岸で泳いだ男性が48時間後に人食いバクテリアで死亡

ドイツの海でもキラーバクテリアが増殖
RT2019/8/9
Killer bacteria leaves woman dead after beach trip in Germany
Lethal microbes in the Baltic Sea have killed a woman in Germany in the first fatality of its kind this year, as soaring summer temperatures create the perfect conditions for the dangerous pathogen to rapidly multiply.

Europe is roasting under a heatwave, driving many to seek refuge in the sea, but for one elderly beachgoer from the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a cool summer swim ended in tragedy.

The woman contracted a strain of the deadly Vibrio bacteria, according to the state’s Office for Health and Social Welfare. There are several varieties of the pathogen, with some belonging to the so-called ‘flesh eating’ bacteria (known as “Fleischfressende Ostsee-Bakterien”). Other strains can cause Cholera, a severe intestinal illness.

The Vibrio bacteria can enter the human body through various ways including open wounds, which may lead to major infection and sepsis. It is particularly dangerous for those with a compromised immune system or chronic liver disease.

The elderly woman fatally sickened by the microbe was thought to suffer from immune deficiencies, according to German media.

Currently, the environment along Germany’s Baltic coastline is close to ideal for the organism, which thrives in warm, brackish water.

“Vibrio bacteria multiply especially at a salt content of 0.5 percent and above a temperature of about 20 degrees Celsius [68 degrees Fahrenheit],” said Martina Littmann, head of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s health department.

昔、イパネマの海岸も立ち入り禁止でした。下水による海水汚染と海岸での強盗被害の恐れで。
RT2019/7/23
Feces & flesh-eating bacteria: Study reveals shocking levels of contamination at America's beaches
Americans may want to think twice before that next summer swim. Many of the country’s idyllic beaches conceal a filthy secret below the sand and waves: dangerous levels of bacteria that put thousands of bathers at risk every year.

In a recently published study conducted by the Environment America Research and Policy Center, researchers found that the water at beaches in 29 coastal and Great Lakes states contained concentrations of bacteria well in excess of Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards – including the harmful organisms that inhabit human feces – which they said could sicken millions of beachgoers annually.

“It’s hard to believe that 47 years after we passed the Clean Water Act that we are still concerned with poop in the water when people want to go swimming,” John Rumpler, clean water program director for the center, told USA Today.

Bacteria levels can spike to dangerous levels on certain days, such as when rain washes waste from the streets into creeks or streams, which flow into larger bodies of water. Some areas fare much worse than others, however.

In Chicago, all of the 19 beaches sampled were considered unsafe for at least one day in 2018, while the city’s South Shore Beach registered contamination in 93 of the 98 samples collected. California’s Cabrillo Beach also came in high on the list, considered unsafe in 85 out of 175 samples in one section.

On the cleaner end of the spectrum, Georgia’s Jekyll Driftwood Beach provided only 2 contaminated samples out of 46, and Florida’s Bird Key Park resulted in 17 dirty samples out of 67, suggesting that even the tidier beaches can be risky on some days.

The harmful microbes found in the water can cause a litany of unpleasant symptoms in their human hosts, ranging from gastrointestinal illness, respiratory disease, as well as ear, eye and skin infections. However, the most nightmarish surprise lurking below the depths, and one not covered by the center’s study, goes by the name of necrotizing fasciitis – or flesh-eating bacteria. While the horrifying condition is rare, some of the 30 or so organisms that cause the illness are native to America’s lakes and coasts. Two recent cases in Florida left one man dead, while another man nearly lost a leg.

Fortunately, things might not be all bad when it comes to America’s squalid beaches. Luke Ginger, water quality scientist for environmental organization Heal The Bay, told USA Today that the national trends were moving in the right direction, particularly through local government initiatives to treat stormwater runoff, among other anti-pollution measures.

“There are improvements that can be made but for the most part, there’s really good water quality,” Ginger said. “There are just a few beaches that have issues.”

SPUTNIK2019/7/14
Man Dies From Flesh-Eating Bacteria 48 hours After Swimming at Florida Beach
Vibrio vulnificus is found in high-salinity, brackish waters with warm surface temperatures. It can be found in streams off of the Gulf Coast and in southern states like Louisiana and Texas, especially between May to October.

A Florida Woman has taken to Facebook to warn others that flesh-eating bacteria is not an urban legend but a real thing which took her father’s life 48 hours after swimming in Florida waters.

In the post, Cheryl Bennett Wiygul of Niceville cautioned others that: “Flesh Eating Bacteria sounds like an urban legend... let me assure you that it is not.”

Recalling her seemingly joyful family holiday, “We had a blast,” Wiygul said, describing the week prior to the tragedy.

Wiygul’s father, Dave Bennett, travelled from Memphis to visit his daughter and her mother for a holiday.

She said that they had all been enjoying their day of jet ski riding and “throwing the ball around in the water” at Rocky Bayou, where Bennett got infected.

“We were out in the bay on the boat near Crab Island, went to the beach in Destin twice, splashed around Turkey Creek, swam in Boggy Bayou, in our pool and then on Friday we spent the day at Rocky Bayou,” she added.

“We left around 4:00 p.m. Daddy stayed up late Friday night and watched a movie. He was happy and talkative, seemed to feel fine as he did all week.”

However, Bennett awoke Saturday morning with a serious fever and the family decided the best thing to do was to “get him checked out” given his history with cancer and a vulnerable immune system.

Wiygul admitted in the post that she had heard the story of “a 12-year-old girl contracting bacteria that turned into necrotizing fasciitis (flesh eating bacteria) in Destin started circling around.”

Wiygul explained that she didn’t want to believe it as her family loves the water.

“My Dad didn’t have any open wounds. He had a couple places that were practicality healed small scratches on his arms and legs that I made sure were super sealed up. My mom religiously sun-blocked him. We were taking precautions and we were good, so I thought,” she added.

She explained that her father Bennett “battled cancer for many years” but he had “been in the water several times, so it didn’t seem like a risk” to go swimming, Wiygul said.

Her father passed away 48 hours after their trip to Rocky Bayou.

Wiygul praised the doctors for trying to save her dad and taking him back to Memphis hospital “immediately” around 8pm, but there was still nothing that could be done.

While her mother helped him get changed into his hospital gown, she spotted a “swollen black spot on his back” which was not there before.

Wiygul told her mother to inform everyone that he had contracted necrotizing fasciitis, but the replies she received were that the media had blown the rumour out of proportion and that it was likely “staph” and that they would not biopsy it.

Following a doubling in size of the blotch as well as the emergence of new marks all over his skin, Bennett became septic and his blood began to turn toxic, affecting his vital organs.

“They said his organs were too damaged and his blood was too acidic to sustain life. He was gone by Sunday afternoon.”

It was later confirmed by lab results that Bennett had contracted “Vibrio vulnificus, which manifests into necrotizing fasciitis (flesh eating bacteria) ultimately leading to sepsis,” as Wiygul explains.

She went on to say: “I didn’t realize he shouldn’t be in the water with his immune system. I feel like I should have known and that is something I will live with for the rest of my life.”

“I do believe if there was a simple sign posted about the risk of swimming with an open wound or an immune disorder, we wouldn’t have let him get in.”

This case follows other incidents of Florida swimmers contracting flesh-eating infections.

A 77-year-old woman died as result of necrotizing fasciitis in June after swimming in Florida waters.

The Okaloosa Board of Directors confirmed in a post on Saturday the Health Department has no confirmed “any deaths due to flesh eating bacteria” and will be re-opening their beaches to the public after Storm Barry passes.




posted by ZUKUNASHI at 14:01| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

これがジャーナリストといわれる人たち



・・・・・

※ 田中龍作@tanakaryusaku氏の午前8:45 ・ 2019年8月2日・Twitter Web Clientのツイート
消費税廃止を看板に掲げて激戦区を勝ち抜いた立憲民主の新人議員が、田中のインタビューに
「私はすぐに消費税廃止なんて言ってない。実現するには財源の問題とかいろいろあるね、と言っただけ」と答えた。

有権者が街宣で聞いた「消費税は廃止」は幻聴だったのか?

※ 石垣のりこ@norinotes氏の午前11:28 ・ 2019年8月2日・Twitter Web Appのツイート
田中さん、言いたい事があるなら名前を伏せずにどうぞ。
私は、消費税はゼロでいいと一貫して主張しています。
財源は法人税、所得税の引上げ、物品税復活等を想定しています。それを踏まえ、即時ではなく段階的に実現するのが現実的だと申し上げています。思い込みで記事を書くのはおやめください。

※ 田中龍作@tanakaryusaku@norinotes氏の午後5:39 ・ 2019年8月2日・Twitter Web Clientのツイート
 石垣さん。あなたと福山幹事長と田中の3人で公開討論をしませんか。真相がすべて明らかになります。

事の発端となった記事:
(link: http://tanakaryusaku.jp/2019/07/00020571) tanakaryusaku.jp/2019/07/000205…

※ 石垣のりこ@norinotes氏の2019/8/2のツイート
公開討論、いくらでも対応いたします。
しかし最初に、田中さんの記事・ツイートの正確性が問われています。まずは先に政治ジャーナリストとして矜持を示される番でしょう。
誠実なるご対応をお待ち申し上げております。

※ 一強政治の腐敗@kentoraneko1氏の午後0:12 ・ 2019年8月2日・Twitter for Androidのツイート
返信先: @tanakaryusakuさん
心底ガッカリした!安倍政権の不正につねに抗議し追及してた真のジャーナリストだと思っていたが?手のひら返しで?野党の新人議員に難癖とは?官房機密費でももらったか?ガッカリした。今後は注意深く言動に注目する。あぁ〜ガッカリした?もっと追及するところがあるだろぉに?今後は応援できないな

※ kmokmos@選挙に行こう!@krtbk_kmos氏の2019/8/2のツイート
返信先: @norinotesさん
石垣さんの言う通り️
石垣さんは何も間違ったことも言ってないし、
選挙戦中の主張は一貫してて何一つ変わってないよ️
ゼロまでに段階があるって言説も、
太郎さんと主張は全く一緒だし️
捻じ曲げすぎ、石垣さんの演説を怒り(ムカッ)
こういう憶測記事って、ホントタチが悪いし怒り(ムカッ)

※ mko@trappedsoldier氏の午前0:01 ・ 2019年8月3日・Twitter Web Appのツイート
返信先: @norinotes さん、 @sanngatuusaginoさん
田中龍作など相手にしなくていいと思います。怪しげな金をもらって、ベネズエラでさんざデマ記事を書いていたイエロージャーナリスト。ベネズエラを中傷するために、「ゴミを漁る住民」の写真をでっち上げ。地球の裏側まで行き、1から100まで嘘ばかり書いていた、もうジャーナリストとは言えない人物

・・・引用終わり・・・

田中龍作ジャーナル

アクセスの多い記事トップで337,402 viewsですね。このブログの半月分のviewsに相当します。
2018年3月9日 12:31 【森友・公文書改ざん】書き換え役の近財職員が自殺 「原本」と遺書見つかる

2011年8月8日 22:46 首都圏の土壌汚染深刻 35地点でチェルノブイリと同レベル
が310,564 views

※ mko @trappedsoldier氏の2019/3/4のツイート
mkoさんが痔憂は臭い#YankeeGoHomeをリツイートしました
野田加奈子の和訳するカラカス・クロニクルは、2月23日、激しく暴力行為を煽っていました。田中龍作さんが、それを連ツイしていました。まるでテロリストの司令塔?

2019年02月23日
田中龍作氏の #ヴェネズエラ 関連報道

田中龍作氏の報道はその都度伝えるものが違います。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 13:32| Comment(3) | 社会・経済

知れば知るほど嫌いになる国 米国

米国への渡航注意情報を出した国があるらしいですが、日本人多いですよね。米国に住むなんて気の毒に・・・。

RT@RT_comの2019/8/9のツイート
Vermont police officer was fired after body-cam video appears to show him assaulting a handcuffed woman in a holding cell
https://twitter.com/i/status/1159577524499812352





FARSNEWS2019/8/7
Texas Police Condemned After Officers on Horseback Leading Handcuffed Black Man by Rope
TEHRAN (FNA)- Police in Texas apologized after photographs emerged of two white officers on horseback leading a black man down the street by a rope.

Donald Neely, 43, had been arrested on suspicion of trespassing in an office building in downtown Galveston, a coastal city outside Houston. The officers attached a rope to the handcuffs behind his back, before leading him to a police staging area eight street blocks away, World News reported.

Police Chief Vernon Hale confirmed that the officers clipped a “line” to Neely’s handcuffs after he was arrested on a misdemeanor criminal trespassing on Saturday. They were leading the suspect to a mounted patrol unit staging area.

The image ignited outrage online after it went viral, with many drawing comparisons to racist images and the era of slavery in the US.

"This is 2019 and not 1819," stated James Douglas, president of the Houston chapter of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People.

It was the latest incident to raise tensions over police treatment of black suspects. Prominent alleged abuse and deaths in custody have sparked riots in recent years up and down the United States.

Melissa Morris, a lawyer for Neely's family, said he was homeless, mentally ill, and suffered from bipolar disorder, adding, "I'm appalled. I believe the way they handled him was disgusting. The family is offended. The family is upset."

Galveston's Police Department announced that leading a suspect by a rope on horseback was something officers were trained to do.

"We understand the negative perception of this action and believe it is most appropriate to cease the use of this technique," the police department said in a statement, adding, "While this technique of using mounted horses to transport a person during an arrest is considered a best practice in certain scenarios, such as during crowd control, the practice was not used correctly in this instance."

Hale stated that "first and foremost I must apologise to Neely for this unnecessary embarrassment", noting that "although this is a trained technique, and best practice in some scenarios, I believe our officers showed poor judgment in this instance, and could have waited for a transport unit at the location of the arrest."

"We will review all mounted training and procedures for more appropriate methods," the Galveston Police Chief said, adding that the officers had no "malicious intent" when they led Neely by a rope, and their body cameras were activated at the time.

The officers were named by the police department as Officer P. Brosch and Officer A. Smith, but it was not clear if they would face disciplinary action.

Leon Phillips, the President of the Galveston Coalition for Justice, said, "These are two white police officers on horseback, with a black man, walking him down the street with a rope tied to the handcuffs, and that's doesn't make sense, period."

"Stay there with him instead of humiliating him, and now you've humiliated the whole city of Galveston. And I do understand this, if it was a white man, I guarantee it would not have happened," Phillips added.

The incident will likely put authorities on high alert for a backlash.

In 2014, Michael Brown, an unarmed black 18-year-old, was fatally shot by a white officer, Darren Wilson, in Ferguson, Missouri. The officer was not charged and Brown's death led to months of protests, becoming a catalyst for the Black Lives Matter movement.

The following year there were protests in Baltimore when Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old black man, died after being injured in a police van.

In New York, relations between police and the black community have been poisoned by the death of Eric Garner, a 43-year-old black man, in police custody in 2014. Daniel Pantaleo, the officer who applied a chokehold to Garner, is still on the force amid ongoing calls for him to be fired.


posted by ZUKUNASHI at 13:26| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

子供ができないのは女の幸せへの道?

2019年08月05日
10年後 女のステータスシンボルはブランドバッグでなく子供になる?

子供のいないご夫婦は今でもたくさんおられます。それが少し増えても社会的に何も変わらない。そうなのかもしれません。

35歳以上の夫婦では約1割に子供がいません。

第15回出生動向基本調査(結婚と出産に関する全国調査)
付属資料:クロス集計主要結果表(夫婦調査)から作成


すでに未婚率は上がっています。最新時点での女性の50歳時点での未婚率は16%程度のようです。これに加えて既婚者84%の1割に子供がいませんから、子供のいない女性は24%強。今でも4人に一人です。

このグラフと末尾の参考図は、婚姻率の推移 - 内閣府から


前の記事に、2019/5から10年後、「出生率が300人に落ちれば、100人のうち28人が子供のいない女性、出生率が250人に落ちれば10人のうち4人が子供のいない女性になります。」と書きましたが、すでにそれに近い数字になっています。

これは、子供を産む集団を20〜40歳女性人口と狭くとらえたことによるものです。これを20〜45歳女性人口に広げます。

再度神奈川の例で考えます。神奈川は出生率が382人ですから毎月382人生まれて1年で4,580人、10年で45,800人、25年で114,600人です。女性10万人当たりですからそのパートナーの男性が一応同数いるとして20万人の男女から114,600人の子供が生まれます。もちろんパートナーがいない方もおられます。そういう方は子供を産まないのが普通でしょう。個人的には産んでも一向にかまわないと思いますが。

もちろん生まれる子供の数は毎月、あるいは毎年均等ではなく、女性が20代の半ばから30代の前半くらいに生まれる子供の数が多くなるということはありますが、25年間でみればこのくらいの数字です。

ここ10年ほど出生率は低下しています。神奈川県の2015/5前12か月の20〜45歳女性人口10万人当たりの出生率は、49人も多かったのです。

4年前ですから1年で約12人減っています。単純に計算して2019/5前12か月平均の出生率は、10年後には120人減る計算になります。

20〜45歳女性人口10万人当たりの出生率が120人減り、262人になります。25年間では、78,600人です。

つまり、2029年5月に20歳の女性の集団10万人を取り上げてみると、その先25年間で生むであろう子供の数は、78,600人となります。

上で子供のいない女性は最近時点でも24%強というデータを見ましたが、現在の出生率で計算して25年で生まれる子供は114,600人です。そして子供の数別の母親の数は、2人の子供を持つ母親の数が抜きんでいるのです。

子供の数別母親数の割合、全体を100と置いた。
総数   1人   2人   3人   4人   5人以上  なし  不詳
100     25   44   15   2   0    13    1



子供というのは、生まれる人には次々と生まれるけれど、生まれない人はなかなか生まれないものなんですね。

ですから、未婚率が少し上がっても、結婚する人はそれなりに多いにもかかわらず、20〜45歳女性10万人当たりの子供は78,600人程度。未婚率が20%に上がったと仮定しましょう。結婚する人8万人に子供78,600人なのです。しかも二人生む人が多ければ生まれない人が多くならなければつじつまが合いません。

かくして、10年後の20歳女性10万人についてみると、子供のいない人は100人のうち28人程度になることはほぼ確実、出生率が250人に落ちれば10人のうち4人が子供のいない女性になります、というのも決して現実性のない数字ではありません。

参考図




そして、その結果社会にどんな変化が生まれるでしょうか。

管理人は、享楽的な社会が出現するのではないかと思うのです。子供もいないから手間もかからない、気を使うこともない。やることもないから遊びで時間をつぶす。

違いますかね。いや別に子供のいない方が享楽的な生活を送っているとは思いませんが、でも子供が独立した後の元専業主婦らの生活を見ているとそんな感じがすることもありますよね。もちろん、金があればですけど。

ここがこの記事のポイントなのです。
享楽的な生活を送るにはカネがかかります。結婚して子供が生まれないとなり、夫婦で享楽的な生活を送ろうとすると、それに必要な資金を稼げる男性配偶者だけではありません。妻にも享楽資金の獲得を求めることになりましょう。

その時、どうします? それなりの稼ぎを確保できる職業能力はありますか?
もし、それがなければ離婚につながることもあるでしょう。専業主婦の夢があっという間に潰えるのです。日本の若い女性の行動や仕事ぶりについては、私の同年配の男性と話すと、疑問が呈されることが多いです。

私自身、若い女性の接客などを見ていて、プロ意識、あるいはプロの技術、知識の欠如を感じることが良くあります。

離婚して一人で生きていかなければならなくなったとき、大丈夫ですかね。

・・・・・・

2019/8/7のニュースを見て、とても驚きました。

まず、”性交渉を持ち、相手が妊娠して、胎児が安定、異常なしと判明してから結婚を決める ” これが日本の新しい配偶者の見つけ方、決め方になりそうです。被ばくによる鼻出血を強く否定していた政治家ですら、そのくらい慎重になっていると受け止めたのですが、いかがでしょう。

※ ドラえもん@jaikoman氏の2019/8/8のツイート
これ以上ない派手な報告をしながら静かに見守って欲しいとか、一般人を官邸に入れるとか、父親への報告が安倍晋三と菅義偉の後とか、
やっぱり国の私物化があたりまえの感覚の持ち主でないとできない支離滅裂な言動だよね。プリンスとちやほやされて何か勘違いしてるんじゃないのか。

※ ブーメラン@a0720072040氏の2019/8/8のツイート
日本人って、なんでこんなに無能世襲政治家に優しいんだ。
その嫁なんてどうでもいいだろ。
政治に世襲があるわけないじゃん。
国の資産を引き継ぐ権利がある訳じゃないだろ。
こいつらほんと頭おかしいょ。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 10:00| Comment(0) | 福島原発事故

中国が希少金属の供給を絞り米国に報復

RT2019/8/8
China wants US to bear the cost of trade war by making rare earths more rare
China’s rare earths association has warned that the trade conflict with the US will harm American businesses and consumers, as it confirmed its readiness to weaponize the prized elements.

Rare earth elements are critical for the high-tech industry in the manufacture of everything from mobile phones to modern fighter jets.

The Association of China Rare Earth Industry (ACREI), comprising almost 300 miners, processors and manufacturers, held a special meeting earlier this week, just several days after US president Donald Trump threatened to hit Beijing with a new batch of tariffs.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, the association called Washington’s tariffs policy “trade bullying” aimed at suppressing China’s development. “We express our firm opposition" to it, it said, adding that Chinese rare earth companies should actively expand both foreign and domestic markets.

While the ACREI acknowledged that are no winners in a trade war, it warned that American citizens and businesses will fall victim to the conflict between the world’s two biggest economies.

“The cost of tariffs imposed by the United States should be borne by the US market and consumers,” the statement read.

The rare earths association’s comments add to earlier hints by Beijing that it could impose restrictions on the exports of the materials. The fears were triggered by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to a rare earths facility in Jiangxi in May, after which local media reported that the Chinese government is ready for the export ban.

Such a move could be painful for the US, which mostly relies on China for supply of the materials which are necessary for production of high-tech devices and for military use. In an apparent bid to secure the supply of the vital elements, the Pentagon asked US miners last month to report on their production capabilities and come up with plans to develop the industry.

China accounts for more than 80 percent of the global of rare earths supply and the exports are already falling. In June, it exported 3,966 tons of the materials, which is 26.8 percent less that at the same period last year.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 09:28| Comment(0) | 国際・政治