ずくなしの冷や水

2019年07月20日

?? わからない

次の地図グラフは、各県庁が毎月発表する人口動態統計から人口3万人以上の都市を対象として、2019/5以前12カ月間の月平均の10万人当たり出生率から2018/5以前24か月の月平均の10万人当たり出生率を引いて得た数値をグラフ化して地図に落としたものです。この3年間でどれだけ出生率が下がったかわかります。大きな円ほど低下幅が大きいです。

この集計で、以下がワースト10。
都市    出生率差 死亡率差
茨城県結城市 -16.0 8.5
新潟県妙高市 -12.8 12.6
福島県本宮市 -12.4 -1.8  郡山市の北に位置
山梨県中央市 -11.7 -6.3  山梨県西寄り
青森県つがる市 -11.4 14.6  青森県日本海側
福島県喜多方市 -10.6 -7.2   会津
栃木県さくら市 -10.3 6.2  宇都宮市の北
茨城県牛久市 -10.1 -1.5  セシウム濃厚汚染
宮城県利府町 -10.0 7.0  塩釜市の西に隣接
茨城県土浦市 -10.0 8.6  セシウム濃厚汚染

結城市や妙高市の出生率の低下が大きいです。結城市は小山市の東です。妙高市は上越市の東。ここは汚染がありそうなのですが確認できていません。

出生率の低下は、若者が町を出ているから? もちろんそれもあると思います。次のグラフは、ワースト上位99のみを表示しています、








出生率の低下は、放射性物質汚染や内部被ばくではなく、若い人の域外への流出が決定的要因?
それで400都市すべてを過去1年間の転出の転入に対する比率で並べ、出生率の差がどうなっているか見てみました。緑の点線が出生率の差のトレンドを示します。右下がりになっていますが、落ち方はわずかです。せいぜい2人です。



ということは、転出超過は決定的な要因ではないことになります。他に要因がある。

管理人はその決定要因として、内部被ばく、特にセシウム、ヨウ素以外の放射性物質の内部被ばくではないかと考えているのです。

上の地図をじっと眺めていて、管理人はある地図の汚染地帯の縁取りを思い浮かべました。原子力規制庁の放射線量等分布拡大マップです。


関東は東と西にセシウム濃厚汚染地帯があります。でも結城市などはその地帯から外れています。ではなぜ?


この濃厚汚染地帯から外れたところは、2011/3/15・16と3/20にプルームが通ったところです。2011/3/21にもプルームが茨城県、千葉県を通りましたが、それは右下の濃厚汚染地帯を形成しました。

これで関東については、おおむね説明がつきます。しかし、要因がわからないのが、妙高市、それから糸魚川市、山梨県下。さらに資料を探さないといけません。現地調査に行くにも妙高や山梨西部は遠いです。

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 23:23| Comment(2) | 福島原発事故

スクリパル事件 英国がなぜこんな物語を考えたか? 英国以外にはわからない

RT2019/7/20
‘Something fishy here’: Putin doesn’t believe UK poisoned Skripals
Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t believe in conspiracy theories that say the British government poisoned former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury.

The Skripal affair, which turned relations between the UK and Russia from bad to worse, was brought up by filmmaker Oliver Stone during an interview with Vladimir Putin. Stone asked the Russian leader if he believes in the theory that Sergei Skripal wanted to return to Russia and divulge some secrets but was stopped by the British government.

“Honestly, I don’t really believe it. I don’t believe it,” Putin replied.

The Russian president said if British intelligence wanted Skripal poisoned, they certainly had the ability to do so. "There is something fishy here," he noted, alleging that whoever was behind the attempted murder was more interested in the "scandal" that it triggered.

Advising Stone not to take the conspiracy theory seriously, Putin said that Skripal, a former Russian intelligence officer who moonlighted for the Britons, hardly had anything to offer to Moscow in exchange for allowing him back.

He was out of the game. What information could he possibly possess?

Skripal was outed as a double agent and sentenced for treason in Russia, but his prison term was cut short by a spy swap in 2010, after which he moved to Salisbury. In March 2018, he and his daughter Yulia were affected by a toxic substance which the British government identified as the military-grade nerve agent called ‘Novichok’.

RT2018/10/3
Skripal is a ‘traitor & scum,’ not some rights activist – Putin
In a rare personal comment on the Sergei Skripal scandal, Russian President Vladimir Putin lambasted the former double agent as a “traitor” and “scum.” The sooner the media noise around Skripal ends, the better, Putin said.

Some media outlets are “pushing through a theory that Mr Skripal is some sort of a rights activist. He’s plainly a spy. A traitor to his homeland. There’s such a thing – being a traitor to the homeland. He is one,” Putin said on Wednesday, speaking at the Russian Energy Week International Forum in Moscow.

“Imagine, if there’s a person in your country who betrayed it. How would you treat him?” Putin added. “He’s plainly scum.”



RT2018/9/28
Skripal poisoning: No info in records about decorated colonel Chepiga, says Kremlin
Russian records have neither information about a Colonel Anatoly Chepiga nor about such a person being awarded the highest national merit, said a Kremlin spokesman. A report by Bellingcat said the man is a Skripal case suspect.

Bellingcat is a controvercial UK-based group which is connected to projects financed by NATO and known mostly for compiling various public data to back various accusations against Russia.

The group this week said they conclusively identified Ruslan Bosharov, one of the two men accused in Britain of poisoning former double agent Sergei Skripal in March, as Anatoly Chepiga, a commando colonel, who has the merit of ‘Hero of Russia’ among his decorations. According to the Kremlin, there are no records of a person with that name receiving the award.

“We have checked. I have no information about a man with that name being awarded,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists.

The merit is usually awarded during a ceremony by the President of Russia. Bellingcat argued that Vladimir Putin must know Chepiga personally and that implied that his vouching for Boshirov and his fellow suspect Aleksandr Petrov was done in bad faith. Putin made public assurances that the two men were civilians and had nothing to do with any criminal activity.

Speaking about the case on Friday, Peskov said Russia was tired of the unending media speculations about the case and was calling on Britain to cooperate with Russia on the investigation through proper channels.

“All those speculations about who resembles whom. You know, we have a dozen of Stalins and 15 Lenins running around the Red Square, and each of them looks a lot like the original,” he said.

Bellingcat’s identification relies on what it called a resemblance between an old photo of Chepiga and a younger Borshirov. The group used the strategy to pinpoint Chepiga by creating a profile of a would-be assassin and finding a person in Russia to fit it.

From the start of the investigation Britain insisted that the poisoning of Skripal and his daughter in March was a state-ordered chemical weapons attack by Russia. London claimed it had evidence which identified Boshirov and Petrov as agents of Russian military intelligence agency, the GRU, but would not disclose it to the public.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 20:12| Comment(9) | 国際・政治

日本のアニメスタジオが放火され 死者33人 「小説を盗んだから放火した」

RT2019/7/19
Suspect in Kyoto Animation fire that killed 33 claims studio stole his story idea – report
The suspected arsonist behind the Kyoto Animation Co. studio fire that killed 33 people has reportedly said he started the blaze in retaliation for the studio stealing his idea for a novel.

The 41-year-old man, who reportedly shouted “Die!” as he set the fire, confessed his motive to police, the Kyodo News reported on Friday, citing investigative sources. He poured gasoline around the building from a bucket and was also carrying a backpack full of knives. He is believed to have started the fire at the front door to prevent escape, and the combination of the gasoline, poor ventilation, and abundance of paper in the building contributed to the fire’s rapid spread. The suspect was injured in the inferno and arrested at the scene.

Kyoto Animation had received anonymous death threats by email in the past but it was unclear whether they were connected to Thursday’s horror. In addition to the fatalities, at least 36 more victims were hospitalized, 10 with critical injuries. The fire was the deadliest in Japan since 2001, when a blaze in Tokyo’s Kabukicho district left 44 dead.

Violent crime is extremely unusual in Japan, and the Kyoto Animation arson is the worst mass murder in the country in at least 18 years. PM Shinzo Abe tweeted his condolences, calling the attack “too awful for words” and praying for the survivors’ speedy recovery. Anime fans have come together to help the studio, which is behind popular titles like K-ON! and Lucky Star. Sentai Filmworks, which has licensed several Kyoto productions for Blu-ray and other products, has set up a GoFundMe campaign to help the studio rebuild.


時事通信社 2019年7月19日(金)9時50分
「小説盗んだから放火」=確保の男、入念に計画か−京アニ火災で現場検証・府警
 京都市伏見区にあるアニメ制作会社「京都アニメーション」のスタジオで33人が死亡した火災で、現場で確保された男(41)が「小説を盗んだから放火した」という趣旨の話をしていたことが19日、捜査関係者への取材で分かった。入念に計画した上で襲撃した疑いがあり、京都府警捜査1課は殺人と現住建造物等放火などの疑いで現場検証。遺体の身元確認を急ぐとともに、やけどで搬送された男の回復を待って事情を聴き、全容解明を進める。
 火災は18日午前10時半ごろ発生。男が「死ね」と叫んだ直後に爆発が起こり、鉄骨コンクリート3階建ての延べ約690平方メートルが全焼した。33人が死亡し、負傷した35人が病院に搬送された。
 捜査関係者によると、男は1階出入り口付近でガソリンをまいたとみられ、現場からバケツのようなものや携行缶、台車が見つかった。スタジオ前の路上にはかばんが落ちており、複数の包丁が入っていた。
 現場から約100メートル離れた路上で確保された際、男は「小説を盗んだので、液体をまいて火を付けた」という趣旨の話をした。同社での勤務歴はなかったという。

FARSNEWS2019/7/18
23 Feared Dead in Suspected Arson at Japan Anime Studio

JNN/TBS2019年7月18日(木)18時43分
京都 アニメ製作会社火災、16人死亡 複数人が心肺停止

RT2019/7/18
At least 13 were killed and dozens injured in Kyoto, Japan as a result of arson at a three-story building that houses a famed animation studio. The suspect was detained by police.

A 41-year-old man allegedly poured a flammable liquid inside the Kyoto Animation Studio HQ before setting it on fire. The suspect was also injured in the incident, and was taken to hospital. No details were provided about his identity.

Some witnesses heard the suspect screaming ‘Die!’ as he was setting the building on fire, according to police.

The incident occurred around 10:30am local time (1:30 am GMT). Videos and photos of the incident show a thick pillar of white smoke billowing from the badly scorched building, while raging fire can be seen devouring it from the inside.

SPUYNIK2019/7/18
At Least 10 Dead, Almost 40 Injured in Fire at Kyoto Animation Studio in Japan - Reports33

RT2019/7/18
At least one person has died and over thirty have been injured after fire engulfed a three-story building in western Japan that houses a famed animation studio. An alleged arsonist was taken into custody.

Police have detained a male suspect who allegedly poured gasoline at the Kyoto Animation's 1st Studio before setting it on fire.

Videos and photos of the incident show a thick pillar of white smoke billowing from the badly scorched building while raging fire can be seen devouring it from the inside.

時事通信社 2019年7月18日(木)13時14分
「京アニ」スタジオで爆発=複数死亡か、負傷30人以上−放火の疑い、男を確保
 18日午前10時半ごろ、京都市伏見区桃山町因幡にあるアニメ制作会社「京都アニメーション」の第1スタジオで爆発を伴う火災が発生し、1人が死亡した。負傷者は30人を超え、京都府警によると、病院に搬送された人の中にも死者がいるとみられ、連絡が取れない人も20人以上いる可能性がある。
 府警は現場付近で火をつけたとみられる男(41)の身柄を確保。「液体をまいて火をつけた」という趣旨の話をしており、放火の疑いもあるとみて事情を聴く。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 01:12| Comment(1) | 社会・経済

米軍がイランのドローンを撃ち落としたというのはウソらしい

SPUTNIK2019/7/19
Iran Releases IRGC Video Allegedly Proving US Lied About Downing of Iranian Drone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZwdsNZc6hs&feature=player_embedded
・・・倍率の高いカメラを使っています。
昼間なら米軍艦船がミサイル発射と同時にイランも航空母艦に向けてミサイルを発射できます。

RT2019/7/19
Iranian military say all its drones returned safely to base after US claimed it shot one down
An Iranian military spokesman has rejected US claims that an Iranian drone had been shot down near a US warship in the Persian Gulf on Thursday.

“All drones belonging to Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz... returned safely to their bases after their mission of identification and control, and there is no report of any operational response by USS ‘Boxer,’” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi told the Tansim news agency.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump said an Iranian drone was taken down by the ‘Boxer’ after approaching her to within 1,000 yards (900 meters). The Iranian official said the statement was meant to escalate tension and uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz.



RT2019/7/18
US Navy shoots down Iranian drone in Strait of Hormuz – Trump
Shortly after entering the Persian Gulf, a US warship shot down an Iranian drone that had approached to within less than a kilometer, US President Donald Trump said at a White House press event.

Amphibious assault ship USS Boxer took “defensive action” against an Iranian drone that approached to within 1,000 yards (900 meters), and ignored multiple calls to stand down, Trump said on Thursday.

The drone was “threatening the safety of the ship and the ship’s crew,” the president said, adding that the US “reserves the right to defend our personnel, facilities and interests.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif told reporters at the UN headquarters in New York he had “no information about losing a drone today,” and was waiting to hear from military authorities.

The Boxer sailed into the Persian Gulf earlier in the day, following the reports that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps had seized the Panamanian-flagged oil tanker MT Riah and its 12-man crew.

The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and the accompanying task force – which have been rehearsing a possible strike against Iran for the past two months – are still in the Arabian Sea, conducting search and rescue operations for a missing sailor.

Trump also called on other countries to “condemn Iran’s attempts to disrupt freedom of navigation and global commerce” in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital international shipping lane for transport of oil from the Persian Gulf.

Washington has called for an international “coalition” to patrol the strait.

RT2019/7/18
Sailor missing from US aircraft carrier rehearsing strike on Iran’s doorstep
A search and rescue operation is underway for a US Navy sailor who fell overboard from the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. A Spanish and Pakistani ship are assisting the search.

The sailor, whose name is being withheld in accordance with navy policy, was reported overboard on Wednesday. Search parties from the Lincoln and the cruiser USS Leyte Gulf are looking for the missing man, assisted by the Spanish frigate Mendez Nunez and the Pakistani frigate Aslat.

The news comes amid reports that amphibious assault ship USS Boxer entered the Persian Gulf and shot down an Iranian drone.

The Lincoln and her accompanying ships were deployed to the region in May, amid rising tensions between the US and Iran. The task force has been conducting “simulated strike operations” in preparations for a possible US attack on Iran.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 00:53| Comment(0) | 国際・政治