ずくなしの冷や水

2018年11月06日

Housing market reminiscent of 2006 bubble, ready to burst – Shiller

RT2018/11/5
Housing market reminiscent of 2006 bubble, ready to burst – Nobel Prize-winning economist Shiller
The weakening housing market is similar to the last market high, just before the subprime housing bubble burst a decade ago, says famed housing-watcher Robert Shiller.

The economist, who predicted the 2007-2008 crisis, told Yahoo Finance that current data shows “a sign of weakness.”

Housing pivots take more time than those in the stock market, Shiller said, adding that “the housing market does have a momentum component and we’re seeing a clipping of momentum at this time.”

The Nobel Laureate explained: “If the markets go down, it could bring on another recession. The housing market has been an important element of economic activity. If people start to get pessimistic about housing and pull back and don’t want to buy, there will be a drop in construction jobs and that could be a seed for another recession.” He added: “By the way, we’re overdue for another recession.”

When reminded that 2006 predated the greatest financial crisis in a lifetime, Shiller acknowledged that any correction would likely be far less severe.

“The drop in home prices in the financial crisis was the most severe drop in the US market since my data begin in 1890,” the Yale economist said.

“It could be that we’re primed to repeat it because it’s in our memory and we’re thinking about it but still I wouldn’t expect something as severe as the Great Financial Crisis coming on right now. There could be a significant correction or bear market, but I’m waiting and seeing now.”

The infamous US housing bubble in the mid-2000s and the subsequent subprime meltdown were key factors spurring the broader financial crisis of 2008. A speculative frenzy over house prices, mortgages beyond long-term capabilities to finance, and eventually a wave of defaults by borrowers, threatened the solvency of some key financial institutions which in turn led to a stock market crash, and the global financial crisis.

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 13:50| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

France: Arrest warrants for Syrian officials an important step towards justice

Amnesty International 5 November 2018, 13:31 UTC
France: Arrest warrants for Syrian officials an important step towards justice

Responding to the news that French prosecutors have issued arrest warrants for three senior Syrian government and intelligence officials on charges of torture, enforced disappearances, crimes against humanity and war crimes, Amnesty International’s Senior Director for Research Anna Neistat said:

“These arrest warrants for three senior officials, including a top adviser to President Bashar al-Assad, are an important step towards delivering justice for the countless victims of gross human rights violations carried out by the Syrian government.

“With war crimes and crimes against humanity continuing to go unpunished in Syria, it is vital that all states cooperate to ensure justice for victims. This includes enforcing universal and other forms of jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute, in their own courts, suspected perpetrators of atrocities.

“The international community should follow France’s lead by taking steps, wherever possible, to end impunity in the Syria conflict and hold all parties to account.”

Background

The wanted Syrian officials have been named as director of the National Security Bureau Ali Mamlouk; head of Airforce Intelligence Jamil Hassan, who is already the subject of a German arrest warrant; and head of the Air Force Intelligence Investigative Branch at Mezzeh military airport, Abdel Salam Mahmoud.

The arrest warrants were issued following a case filed in France in 2016 by Obeida Dabbagh, whose brother and nephew, Mazen and Patrick Abdelkader Dabbagh, dual Syrian-French nationals, were arrested and forcibly disappeared by Syrian Airforce Intelligence in Damascus in November 2013.

In July 2018, the Dabbagh family obtained documents from the Syrian government indicating that Mazen and Patrick had died in November 2017 and January 2014 respectively.

More than 80,000 people have been subjected to enforced disappearance by the Syrian government since the start of the conflict.

Amnesty International is calling on international leaders to support a UN Security Council referral of the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court, and to cooperate fully with the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) to assist in investigating and prosecuting crimes under international law in Syria.

posted by ZUKUNASHI at 12:09| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

これはひどすぎる F1事業主体の情報開示姿勢

Yahooニュース
木野龍逸 | フリーランスライター
2018/11/5(月) 16:00
東電が「病死」と発表した福島第一の作業員が、長時間労働で労災認定──厳しい車両整備計画の実態は?

東京電力の福島第一原子力発電所で事故収束作業にあたる作業員が2017年10月26日に亡くなった件で、いわき労働基準監督署が10月17日に労災と認定していたことがわかった。東電は作業員の死亡を発表した定例会見で作業との因果関係はないと明言していた。福島第一原発の作業で過労死が認められたのは、事故直後の2011年5月に過酷労働で亡くなった静岡県の作業員のケースがある。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 10:44| Comment(0) | 福島原発事故

カショギの遺体はバラバラにされ溶かされた

トルコのリークが頼りのカショギ事件。トルコ政府、エルドアンが正義を実現できるのか、疑問視する声が出ています。遺体を酸で溶かして総領事公邸の井戸に流し込んだとか。地下水汚染は調べていないのか?

アルジャジーラ201811/5
Saudi 'cover-up team' sent to dispose of Khashoggi body: report
A Turkish newspaper report suggests a Saudi investigative group included two experts who attempted to erase evidence.
Saudi Arabia deployed a chemist and toxicology expert to Istanbul after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in an attempt to cover up evidence of the killing, according to a Turkish newspaper.

Pro-government daily Sabah reported on Monday that Saudi Arabia sent an 11-member "cover-up team" to Istanbul on October 11, nine days after the Washington Post contributor vanished after entering the Saudi consulate to obtain paperwork for his marriage.

The paper said chemist Ahmad Abdulaziz al-Janobi and toxicology expert Khaled Yahya al-Zahrani were among "the so-called investigative team", which visited the consulate every day until October 17, before leaving Turkey on October 20.

The newest details may explain why Saudi Arabia did not allow Turkish police to search the consulate until October 15.

Turkish authorities have released gruesome details of a killing that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said was a targeted hit.
Missing body

While Riyadh officials have admitted the murder was planned, they have so far declined to release details of the whereabouts of the 59-year-old journalist's missing body.

Turkey's chief prosecutor said last week that Khashoggi was strangled as soon as he entered the consulate and also confirmed the body was dismembered.

Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Erdogan, hinted in an article published on Friday that the body may even have been dissolved in acid.

In an editorial published in The Washington Post, Erdogan accused authorities in Riyadh of refusing to answer key questions about the murder, despite their arrest of 18 suspects a fortnight ago.

He said the order to murder the journalist came from "the highest levels" of the Saudi government, adding that he did "not believe for a second" that King Salman was to blame.

But he pointedly failed to absolve Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of responsibility for unleashing a "death squad" against the outspoken Saudi journalist.

The murder has badly tainted the kingdom's de facto ruler.
Unwilling to 'genuinely cooperate'

Last week, Saudi Attorney General Sheikh Saud al-Mojeb met Turkish authorities in Istanbul but refused to share information from Riyadh's own investigation, according to Turkish officials.

A senior Turkish official said the Saudi officials that appeared unwilling to "genuinely cooperate" with the investigation.

"The Saudi officials seemed primarily interested in finding out what evidence the Turkish authorities had against the perpetrators," the official told the AFP news agency on the condition of anonymity.

"We did not get the impression that they were keen on genuinely cooperating with the investigation."

On Monday, Turkish Vice President Fuad Oktay said that reports of Khashoggi's body being dissolved in acid need to be investigated.

Oktay told Turkey's Anadolu news agency it was now accepted that Khashoggi was targeted in a premeditated murder.

"The question now is who gave the orders. This is what we are seeking answers to now," Oktay said.

"Another question is where the body is ... There are reports of [the body] being dissolved with acid now. All of these need to be looked at."

According to Al Jazeera's Andrew Simmons, reporting from Istanbul, Saudi investigators had repeatedly asked Turkish officials for access to Khashoggi's phone while they were investigating the case in Istanbul.

Similarly, on Sunday a Turkish security source told Al Jazeera that audio recordings from inside the consulate indicate that Khashoggi's murderers were trying to find his phone immediately after killing him.

Prior to entering the consulate, Khashoggi had given both of his mobile phones to his fiance Hatice Cengiz as she waited outside.

FARSNEWS2018/11/4
Report: Khashoggi's Body Parts Transported in Suitcases
TEHRAN (FNA)- A Turkish pro-government newspaper reported that journalist Jamal Khashoggi's corpse was dismembered and put into five suitcases after he was strangled upon entering Saudi Arabia's consulate in Istanbul.

Citing unnamed officials, Sabah reported on Sunday that the suitcases were then taken to the Saudi consul's residence near the consulate where the writer was killed on October 2.

The officials said that Maher Mutreb, Salah Tubeigy and Thaar al-Harbi were the three key figures from the 15-member hit squad that were involved in dismembering Khashoggi's body and removing it from the premises.

Mutreb was a direct aide to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, also known as MbS, while Tubeigy was the head of the Saudi Scientific Council of Forensics and a colonel in the Saudi army.
Al-Harbi was reportedly promoted to lieutenant in the Saudi royal guard last year for bravery in the defence of the crown prince's palace in Jeddah.

An adviser to Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also announced that the team that killed the Saudi journalist cut up his body in order to dissolve for easier disposal.

Yasin Aktay, who was a friend of Khashoggi's, told Hurriyet newspaper that the corpse was disposed of by dismembering and dissolving it.

"We now see that it wasn't just cut up, they got rid of the body by dissolving it," he said, adding that "according to the latest information we have, the reason they dismembered his body is to dissolve it easier".

"They aimed to ensure no sign of the body was left," Aktay stated.

Also, a senior Turkish official has told Al-Jazeera the journalist's body was dismembered and dissolved in acid, noting that the Saudi hit squad that carried out the killing has done similar operations before.

Earlier, a Turkish official had also told the Washington Post that authorities were investigating a theory the body was destroyed in acid.

On Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the order for Khashoggi's killing came from the "highest levels" of the Saudi government.

"We must reveal the identities of the puppet masters behind Khashoggi's killing," Erdogan said, adding that Turkey has "moved heaven and earth" to bring the truth to light.

FARSNEWS2018/11/3
Khashoggi's Body 'Dismembered', 'Dissolved'
TEHRAN (FNA)- An adviser to Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that the team that killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi cut up his body in order to dissolve for easier disposal.

Yasin Aktay, who was a friend of Khashoggi's, told Hurriyet newspaper that the corpse was disposed of by dismembering and dissolving it.

"We now see that it wasn't just cut up, they got rid of the body by dissolving it," he said, adding that "according to the latest information we have, the reason they dismembered his body is to dissolve it easier".

"They aimed to ensure no sign of the body was left," Aktay stated.

Meanwhile, a senior Turkish official has also told Al-Jazeera the journalist's body was dismembered and dissolved in acid, noting that the Saudi hit squad that carried out the killing has done similar operations before.

Earlier, a Turkish official had also told the Washington Post that authorities were investigating a theory the body was destroyed in acid.

On Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the order for Khashoggi's killing came from the "highest levels" of the Saudi government.

"We must reveal the identities of the puppet masters behind Khashoggi's killing," Erdogan said, adding that Turkey has "moved heaven and earth" to bring the truth to light.

Khashoggi, known for his criticism of Saudi Arabia's policies, went missing on October 2 after entering the kingdom consulate in Istanbul to obtain a marriage document. Ankara has accused Riyadh of murdering the Khashoggi and smuggling his body out of the consulate in pieces. After two weeks of denial by Saudi officials, Riyadh confessed that Khashoggi had been murdered by its security agents at the Istanbul consulate, but made no mention of where his body is. It also sacked a top general and arrested several people.

The Saudi Public Prosecutor has also stated that the assassination of Khashoggi at the Riyadh consulate in Turkish city of Istanbul in early October was premeditated.

Four weeks after the Saudi writer vanished, the details of his killing are still murky and the cause of his death is unknown. Officials in Riyadh have come up with shaky explanations for Khashoggi's demise; first stressing that he left the consulate alive, then stating that he was killed accidentally in a fistfight, and finally alleging a "rogue operation" unbeknownst to the Saudi rulers.

In the first official comment in the case that has caused a global outrage, the office of chief prosecutor said on Wednesday that Khashoggi was strangled as soon as he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul and then his body was dismembered.

"In accordance with plans made in advance, the victim, Jamal Khashoggi, was choked to death immediately after entering the Consulate General of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul on October 2, 2018, for marriage formalities," the statement noted.

"The victim's body was dismembered and destroyed following his death by suffocation - again, in line with advance plans," it added.

In a statement, the prosecutor's office described three days of meetings with Saud Al-Mujab, Saudi public prosecutor, as producing "no concrete results".

Erdogan had stated that the killing of Khashoggi inside the kingdom's consulate was "planned" and “brutal” murder, asking Riyadh to extradite the 18 arrested suspects to Turkey to face justice for the crime. But, Riyadh stressed that the suspected killers of Khashoggi will be prosecuted in Saudi Arabia, refusing calls from Turkey for their extradition, after Ankara said it is planning to demand the kingdom extradite 18 suspects in the killing of the well-known journalist.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 01:51| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

球状セシウム含有粒子とSPMの動きはよく似ている

※ sivad @sivad氏の2018/11/5のツイート
原発フォールアウトのセシウム・パーティクル(ボール)に関する論文。健康影響についても不溶性粒子の性質を考慮すべきであると警告しています。
Emission of spherical cesium-bearing particles from an early stage of the Fukushima nuclear accident
Kouji Adachi, Mizuo Kajino, Yuji Zaizen & Yasuhito Igarashi
Scientific Reports volume 3, Article number: 2554 (2013)

sivad @sivad氏が紹介してくれた上の論文に次のようなグラフがあります。


2011/3/15、3/20〜3/21、そして3/30に大きなピークがあります。
次のグラフと同じです。次のグラフの3/14のピークは東海第二原発から放出されたものの影響です。気象研究所にも東海第二発の放射性物質によって線量率が上がっていたようですが、ここではそれはほとんど窺えません。上のグラフはエアロゾル全体のものですが、球状セシウム含有粒子は、3号機の爆発で大量に生成されたからではないでしょうか。

そして気象研究所では、2011/3/25のピークが見られません。福島第一原発からの気流が筑波には回らなかったのでしょうか。


次は静岡県です。むしろこちらのほうが冒頭のグラフに似ています。3/14のピークがなく、3/25のピークも低くなっています。


次は愛知県と三重県。3/25のピークが大きく出ています。この日、放射性物質を運んできた気流は、静岡の海岸沿いではなく別のルートで飛んできたことを窺わせます。




兵庫県を見ます。3/20が相対的に低いなどの日によって冒頭のグラフと高低が異なりますが、基本的なパターンは同じです。つまり、兵庫県までは、筑波とそう変わらないタイミング、パターンでセシウム・パーティクル(ボール)を含むエアロゾルが飛んできているということです。


2011/3/12の15時36分、1号機で水素爆発が起きましたが、上のグラフでは、特に気象研究所ではエアロゾルの顕著な増加は見られません。他の地域では若干SPM濃度の上昇がみられますが2011/3/15以降のピークに比べれば上昇幅は小さいです。(東海第二原発のベントによるSPM濃度の上昇が千葉北部などでは見られます)

当初、PM2.5に変化が見られるのではないかと考え、調べましたが特に福島第一原発における事象との関係がつかめませんでした。

上のグラフは、SPM濃度の上昇がセシウム・パーティクル(ボール)を含むエアロゾルの飛来によるものであることを強く示唆します。細かいものほど遠くへ飛ぶことを考えれば、大きなものは福島第一原発近傍に、細かいものは遠くまで届いたと考えると、遠いところでもセシウム・パーティクル(ボール)の吸入による健康被害がありうることになります。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 00:00| Comment(0) | 福島原発事故