ずくなしの冷や水

2018年01月14日

ハワイがミサイル誤警報で大混乱

トランプの威嚇戦略が過ぎて足元に跳ね返りました。


RT2018/1/13
‘Whole state was terrified’: Hawaii urges ‘tough & quick’ reprisal for bogus missile alert
After the entire state of Hawaii suffered an almighty scare over an imminent missile attack warning, angry officials and the public are calling for “tough and quick accountability” for the “totally inexcusable” mishap.

“The whole state was terrified,” said Hawaiian US senator Brian Schatz following the false alarm on Saturday morning, which went uncorrected for 38 minutes. He called for immediate action.

The alert was mistakenly sent out during an employee shift change at the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency when someone literally “pushed the wrong button,” according to Hawaii Governor David Ige.

“We took shelter immediately ... I was sitting in the bathtub with my children saying our prayers ... I’m extremely angry right now,” said Hawaii State Rep Matt LoPresti, describing for CNN the panic that ensued following the alert.

READ MORE: ‘This is not a drill’: Hawaii gets ballistic missile alert ‘by mistake’

The mistake came at “a time of heightened tensions” between the US and North Korea – a fact not lost on US Senator for Hawaii Mazie Hirono, journalist Glenn Greenwald or NYT national security correspondent David Sanger, who all alluded to the danger of the nuclear and digital age colliding.

President Donald Trump, who was at his golf resort in Mar-A-Lago at the time of the alert, and who has remained uncharacteristically silent on Twitter since the debacle, has been criticized for his role in raising tensions.

“Our leaders have failed us,” Rep Tulsi Gabbard told CNN. “Donald Trump is taking too long. He’s not taking this threat seriously and there’s no time to waste. We’ve got to get rid of this nuclear threat from North Korea … because this is literally life and death for the people of Hawaii and for the people of this country.”

Local journalist Anthony Quintano tweeted “I’m still shaking” and shared an image of electronic signs on a highway in Honolulu still displaying corrections for the alert.

RT2018/1/14
‘Won’t happen again’: Hawaii officials apologize, blame missile warning fiasco on ‘human error’
Faced with a public outcry following a false missile alert, Hawaiian officials apologized, saying an automated method of retracting warnings will be introduced and two employees, instead of one, will handle it in the future.

“We did everything that we can, immediately, to ensure that it will never happen again… so a single person will not be able to make an error that triggers another false alarm,” Vern Miyagi, Hawaii’s Emergency Management Agency (HI-EMA) administrator said, as he accepted responsibility for the incident.

“I’m sorry for that pain and confusion that many might have experienced,” he added.

It was a single mouse click by a HI-EMA employee during a routine test that sent the entire state of Hawaii into panic, Miyagi revealed.

“The wrong button was pushed on the test, it went into actual event versus a test,” he said. It was not literally a button, but part of a screen the employee erroneously clicked on to activate the alarm, according to Miyagi. As to why it took the agency nearly 40 minutes to inform the public that the alert was bogus, Miyagi said that officials were forced to go through a number of steps as there was no deactivation template in place.

“There was no an automated way to send a false alarm cancellation. We had to initiate a manual process and that was why it took a while to notify everyone,” Governor David Ige said.

In fact, the officials initiated the cancellation procedure just three minutes after the alarm went off, Miyagi said, as he provided a detailed timeline of how the events unfolded. At 8:13am, six minutes after the initial warning, the agency issued a cancellation which stops the messages from going out. At 8:20am, the agency posted the correction on Facebook, which was retweeted by the governor in four minutes. However, it was already 8:45am when distraught Hawaiians finally received “verbal” notifications on their cell phones.

Refusing to identify the employee responsible for the mishap, Miyagi said that he was also shaken by what he involuntary caused to happen.

“You got to know this guy feels bad. He was not doing this on purpose. It was a mistake on his part. He feels terrible about it and it won’t happen again,” Miyagi said.

“There’s definitely was no hacking involved, it was a human error,” Governor Ige reiterated.

As reporters grilled officials about how could it take the employee three minutes to realize such an obvious mistake, the governor said the emergency staff only became aware of the error when the alert popped up on their phones.

The first to receive the information were Governor Ige and Maj. Gen. Arthur Logan, state adjutant general and HI-EMA director, who both rushed to double-check the threat.

While the procedure for cancellation is complex, the same could not be said about the process of triggering the alarm, as it could be done by one employee in charge of the fateful “button.”

“We are talking only about 20 minutes launch to impact time frame,” Miyagi said, noting that the public would be left with 15 minutes to hide as the military and United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) would need another five minutes to detect the threat, analyze it, and determine where the missile is going.

“Based on this information, our warning person has the authority to push the button. They don’t have to call me or the governor… They have the authority to go and push the button,” he said.

In order to prevent the mistake from happening again, two people, instead of one, will be required to make the decision over initiating a test or an actual alarm, according to Miyagi. In another change of protocol, it will be possible from now on to withdraw the alarm warning automatically.

“It will be a template within the screen and they can just push it,” Miyagi said. Until all the changes are introduced, tests of the ballistic missile preparation checklist, which were performed several times a day since November 1, have been put on hold by the authorities.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 17:59| Comment(0) | 国際・政治

汚染地域に住むと外部被曝も内部被曝もありうることがこれで分かります

次のグラフは、管理人の自宅屋外でMAZUR PRM9000を使って測定した空間線量率です。平均が30cpm程度。


次のグラフは、市川市内で個人が測定している空間線量率のグラフです。平均が29cpm程度で管理人自宅での測定値より1cpm程度低くなっています。測定器はともに同等な検出能力のあるパンケーキ型GM管を使っています。



二つ目のグラフのほうが見やすく洗練されていますが、それはさて置いて、2018/1/6から空間線量率の平均が1から3cpmほど上がっています。

降雨があったりして一時的に線量率が上昇すればスパイクとなって現れます。降雨に伴うスパイクは降り始めに強く出ますから鋭いクサビ状となることが多く、このグラフの1/6の午前から始まった線量率の高原状態が出るのは珍しいのです。線量率の上昇は1/9まで持続しました。

以前に比べて線量率の平均が3cpm上がるということは、常に線量率がそれだけ嵩上げされているということで、このような現象は新たな放射性物質の降下があったような場合に生じます。

市川に新たに放射性物質が降った? 他のモニタリングポストなどの数値を確認しましたが、そのような空間線量率の上昇は見られませんでした。原因は何でしょう?

管理人は当初、近所で家屋の解体などがあり、ホコリが飛んだのではないかと考えました。それにしても放射性物質の多いホコリということになりますが。

ところが4日後にはまたもとの水準に戻ってしまいました。線量率水準の嵩上げ効果は消えてしまったのです。

ということは、4日間の線量率の上昇をもたらしたのは、降下沈着した放射性物質ではなく、通り過ぎた放射性物質だということになります。

そして、そうなると発生源の推定が難しくなります。降下沈着せずに空間線量率を押し上げて過ぎ去るのは、ガス状の放射性物質です。市川にどこかから気体状の放射性物質のプルームが襲来した?

原因を探ろうと現地を訪れ、あちこち測りました。すると驚きの結果が!

民家のブロック塀の上端で警報音が鳴り続け、257cpmを指しました。新松戸の測定値と並ぶ最高値です。(新松戸は243cpmでしたが、その際に使用した器械は今回使用した器械と比べて約1割低く出ますので、ほぼ同等と見るべきでしょう)


紙を1枚挟んで測ります。176cpm。アルファー線分が81cpmもあります。


この地域は著しく汚染の強い地域だったのです。管理人は、この場所からかなり離れた周辺地域を測定したことがありますので、150cpmくらいは出るだろうと見込んでいましたが、これまでの最高を更新するとは予想していませんでした。

原因は分かりませんでした。工事中の家は見かけませんでした。ですがこの場所は外郭環状線の工事現場に近く、それ以外にも道路工事が行われていました。遠くには松戸市和名ヶ谷クリーンセンターの煙突が見えます。

1/6から上がっていますから宗教と関連した行事によるものでもなさそうです。どんど焼きは1/15です。正月休み明けに上がっていること、このころ強い風が吹いていたことなどから、工事中の道路のホコリが舞い上がった? ホコリなら沈着して水準嵩上げが継続するでしょう。

結局原因は分からないままですが、管理人が最高記録を得たブロック塀のほんの一欠けが測定器のそばに来るだけで線量率が数cpmは上がります。

濃厚汚染地域は、このようなリスクがあります。何が飛んできたか、どこから飛んできたかはわからないままに空間線量率が跳ねることがあるのです。ブロック塀のほんの一欠けが測定器のそばに来て線量率が上がれば、その測定器の管理人は異常に気づいてそのかけらを遠ざけるでしょう。

ですが、それが細かい粉末状で風のまにまに流れているような場合は、誰も気づかないうちに吸気被曝を重ねてしまうことになる恐れがあるのです。
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 02:39| Comment(0) | 福島原発事故

ウクライナはクーデターの後 8百万人が国外に流出?

RT2018/1/12
Are Ukraine’s population figures totally inaccurate? Ex-PM claims 8mn emigrated since Maidan

Ukraine’s former PM claims more than eight million citizens have emigrated since the Western-backed Maidan in 2014. If he’s right, it adds to growing suspicions that Kiev’s population calculations are utterly out of whack.

Posting on Twitter, Nikolay Azarov noted: “More than 8 million Ukrainians left the country after the coup: 4.4 million went to Russia, 1.2 million to Poland, others went to other countries. Neither Libya, nor Syria, nor Afghanistan, nor other war-torn countries saw such a mass emigration.”

While the numbers at first seem extreme, they might not be totally outlandish. Polish officials admitted in spring of last year that more than one million Ukrainians were officially working in their country. And that was before Schengen visa-free access began, which may have swelled numbers engaged in the informal economy.

Meanwhile, sources suggested 2.6 million Ukrainians were registered in Russia by 2016. An accurate headcount is difficult to ascertain due to the lack of visa restrictions at the border. Also, Franz Klintsevich, first deputy head of the Russian Federation Council committee on defense and security, has publicly mentioned a figure of four million Ukrainians formally employed in Russia.

According to Azarov’s information, Ukraine’s real population is considerably below the 42 million claimed by Kiev authorities last year, a figure little changed since 2014. It the data is that unreliable, it would be unprecedented in modern-day Europe.
Reasons to believe

The comments also feed into a wider debate about Ukraine’s questionable national statistics. The troubled state hasn’t conducted a national headcount since 2001. Furthermore, the official average wage levels appear to be too low to be true (currently €220 monthly), in a country where at least the major cities seem to be relatively prosperous.

Back in 2001, the results showed Ukraine had 48.4 million residents, down from a figure of 52 million when the USSR collapsed in 1991.

Anatoly Karlin, a Russian writer at America’s Unz Review who focusses on demographics, claims there are only three explanations for the apparent contradiction. “Either Ukraine is experiencing a baby-boom far bigger than anywhere else in eastern Europe, which seems unlikely given [the current] economic circumstances [or] Ukraine is also fiddling its fertility statistics [or] this theory is nonsense, [and is a] mirror image of ‘dying Russian bear’ trope.”

In his last point, Karlin is referring to the western media obsession with depicting Russia as a country facing demographic disaster, despite the fact the population has stabilized at around 143 million since 2005 (excluding Crimea) and actually saw a small increase between 2009-2016. Indeed, Russia’s core numbers are only down 2.7 percent since 1991, in contrast to incredible falls in other former communist states such as Romania (16.6 percent), Latvia (27.2 percent), Lithuania (22.4 percent) and Armenia (16.3 percent). So, while Russia faces considerable challenges in this regard, it seems to have managed the post-Soviet transition better than most of its western neighborhood, despite the disastrous nineties.

Last year, Andrey Fomin, of the Moscow-based “Oriental Review,” conducted an investigation into Ukraine’s murky statistics, which he compared to Nikolay Gogol’s legendary novel “Dead Souls.” He estimated that the country’s current population is at most 33.5 million (or 35.7 million, including Crimea). This would be almost seven million less, even with the errant province thrown in, than the authorities claim.

Fomin found that Kiev doesn’t “clock out” citizens who emigrate and only registers internal migration. He also pointed out that bread consumption (the dietary staple of Ukrainians) had fallen by 55 percent between 2000 and 2016, which indicates the number of consumers had fallen off a cliff. Unless, of course, the populace has suddenly switched to Atkins-style diets, which seems unlikely.
Smoke screen

The analyst further backed up his argument by pointing out “during the 1995/1996 school year there were 7.1 million schoolchildren in Ukraine. But, it was down to 3,783,150 (official data of the Ministry of Education of Ukraine) by the 2015/2016 school year, or 47 percent in 20 years.”

Potential reasons for the lack of urgency in conducting a proper survey are numerous. They could include tricking the IMF and the EU by making it look as though Ukraine is more stable than it actually is; helping some officials to become richer, through syphoning off unused energy from vacant homes (most Ukrainian housing complexes use centralized heating systems); enabling election fraud or minimizing the publicly known casualties of the civil war.

Whatever the true population of Ukraine, the fact that no census has been held for 17 years is beyond bizarre. It’s also notable that the country’s western sponsors haven’t insisted on one being held immediately.

Meanwhile, scholars and journalists continue to focus on Russia’s demographics, with some justification, while ignoring the far greater malaise in its estranged neighbour. Highly selective reporting at its best.
posted by ZUKUNASHI at 01:04| Comment(5) | 国際・政治